Handicapping the 2026 Kentucky Derby: Best bets, long shots and more on the race
The 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby appears to be a wide-open race.
And that was the general sentiment before the 4-1 morning-line favorite, Renegade, drew the No. 1 post position, which hasn’t produced a Derby winner since Ferdinand won from the rail in 1986.
That’ll be 40 years of history for the Arkansas Derby winner to overcome Saturday in Louisville, and he’ll have plenty of stout competition in his attempt to leave Churchill Downs with the roses.
The Florida Derby was perhaps the most impressive prep race this spring, with Commandment, The Puma and Chief Wallabee — the 1-2-3 finishers in that one — all looking like top contenders in Saturday’s field.
Further Ado, a star at Keeneland, should get plenty of support, too. He won the Blue Grass Stakes in Lexington by 11 lengths in his most recent start, and the Spendthrift Farm colt won a race at Churchill as a 2-year-old, too.
The California contingent isn’t looking as strong this year, but that group does feature Potente, who finished second in the Santa Anita Derby and appears to be Bob Baffert’s best shot at what would be a record-breaking seventh Kentucky Derby victory.
Five-time champion trainer Chad Brown is still looking for his first Kentucky Derby win, and he has arguably the buzziest colt on the backside this week. That’s Emerging Market, who has raced just twice in his life and will try to become the first horse since 1883 to win the Derby in his third career start.
With no clear favorite, several others are drawing long looks.
The past several runnings of this race have seen good fortunes fall on the closers, thanks, in part, to a quick pace up front. Look for another frantic battle in the early going Saturday, with UAE Derby winner Six Speed and fellow long-shot Pavlovian among the most likely to be vying for the lead.
Many of the favorites in this field employ a late-running style. Who will get to the finish line first? Here’s a handicapping look at each horse in the Derby field, including info on the best bets for Saturday’s race.
1. Renegade (4-1)
Need to know: The morning-line favorite despite drawing the dreaded inside post, Renegade is deserving of the honor. He’s won both of his races this year by daylight, the most recent being a 4-length victory in the Arkansas Derby, and horses with his come-from-behind style have had success in recent runnings of the Kentucky Derby. His jockey, Irad Ortiz Jr., has never finished in the top three in nine previous Derby starts, but he’s a five-time Eclipse Award winner and stuck with Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher — a two-time Derby winner — to ride Renegade in this race despite being aboard several other legitimate contenders during the prep season. Renegade is a son of Into Mischief, who has sired three of the past six Derby winners, including Sovereignty, last year’s champ. So Renegade has the bloodlines, the connections and the speed — his 98 Beyer in the Arkansas Derby ranks toward the top in this field — and that 1 post might not be too detrimental, given his penchant for coming from the back of the pack.
A good bet? If he can break well, hang back and stay out of trouble early, he’ll be a handful at the end. You can’t leave him out of your exotic bets.
2. Albus (30-1)
Need to know: The son of star sprinter Yaupon broke his maiden in his third career start — a win at Tampa Bay Downs in February — and followed that up by coming from well off the pace to win the Wood Memorial in an upset, a nice effort even if it wasn’t the most visually pleasing. Jaime Torres, his jockey that day — and for both of his starts as a 2-year-old — is riding 20-1 shot Incredibolt on Saturday instead, so Manny Franco will be aboard for the first time. Albus’ career-best Beyer Speed Figure (84) is better than just one other horse in this field, so he’ll need a major jump forward there to be in the mix with this group. The Wood Memorial victory did represent a change in style after racing on the lead in his previous two starts, but that field was among the weakest of the major Derby preps. The last Wood winner to claim the roses was Fusaichi Pegasus back in 2000. Albus’ trainer, Riley Mott — son of Hall of Famer Bill Mott — also trains Incredibolt, and these will be his first two Derby starters.
A good bet? Doesn’t seem fast enough, and the Derby distance could be a question. Pass.
3. Intrepido (50-1)
Need to know: He ran a solid second in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes in February — his 2026 debut — and appeared to be one of the top contenders in the Santa Anita Derby, where his move in the final turn wasn’t good enough to even contend with So Happy and Potente, the top two finishers that day but not among the favorites Saturday. All six of his previous races have been run in California, though he turned in a bullet performance (4 furlongs in 45 seconds flat) in his first workout over the Churchill Downs track Sunday, so that’s something. His sire, Maximius Mischief, is actually the son of Into Mischief — again, he’s sired three Kentucky Derby winners — and jockey Hector Berrios, a Derby newcomer, will be aboard for the sixth straight time. A Grade 1 winner as a 2-year-old, Intrepido has failed to build on that promise in 2026. So far, at least.
A good bet? Those 50-1 odds on the morning line seem fair. Should be one of the longest shots in this field, and there are plenty of others to like more.
4. Litmus Test (30-1)
Need to know: One of two Bob Baffert trainees here, Litmus Test was an $875,000 purchase as a yearling and has just two wins in seven career starts to show for it. He looked like one of the best in his class to close the 2-year-old season but didn’t show much after setting the pace and getting a great trip in his 3-year-old debut, a third-place finish in the Rebel Stakes. Baffert kept him at Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby, where Renegade beat him by more than 12 lengths. Litmus Test never really did anything that day, despite being in a similar spot as Renegade for much of the race. Martin Garcia will ride him for the first time Saturday, his fifth straight race with a different jockey. He will be getting blinkers for the Derby, and his sire, Nyquist, won this race 10 years ago.
A good bet? He’s seemingly regressed at age 3. Not what you want to see. A Baffert horse with such long odds is hard to ignore on Derby Day, but there’s no reason to think he’s a contender.
5. Right to Party (30-1)
Need to know: Trained by Kenny McPeek, who won the Derby with long shot Mystik Dan two years ago, Right to Party earned his spot in Saturday’s field by flying from the back of the pack to finish second in the Wood Memorial four weeks ago. That’s been his running style in each of his four career starts, so expect to see it again Saturday, which will mark Right to Party’s first race anywhere other than Aqueduct in New York. His 81 Beyer for the Wood Memorial marked a career best. It also marks the lowest “best Beyer” in this field, so he’ll need to take a sizable step forward to contend at the end Saturday. That said, the Derby distance shouldn’t be an issue for this son of Constitution, who has been one of the top stallions in North American in recent years.
A good bet? In this race, finding a long shot that can pass a bunch of tired horses in the stretch can win you a lot of money on trifecta and superfecta wagers. Right to Party looks the part. So don’t rule him out of those exotic bets.
6. Commandment (6-1)
Need to know: The only horse in this field with two triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures, this son of Into Mischief is as consistent as they come. He finished fourth at Keeneland in his first career start back in October. Since then: four races, four victories. Commandment got a great ride from Irad Ortiz Jr. and held off Chief Wallabee by a neck in the stretch of the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Most recently, Flavien Prat rode him to a win in the Florida Derby, where he beat The Puma by a nose, with Chief Wallabee another half-length back in that star-studded race. With Ortiz and Prat riding others Saturday, it’ll be Luis Saez aboard for the first time. All three of Commandment’s races this year have come at Gulfstream Park, though he did break his maiden at Churchill Downs in November for trainer Brad Cox, a Louisville native looking for his second Derby win. The mile and a quarter should be no problem, and his damsire, Orb, won the Derby in 2013.
A good bet? Could very well be the winner. His consistently excellent performances make him impossible to throw out of the exotic bets.
7. Danon Bourbon (20-1)
Need to know: One of the international invaders in this Derby field, Danon Bourbon has just three career starts on his record. They’ve all come in Japan. He’s won them all. None have been particularly close. Last time out, the son of Maxfield (who is the son of Derby champ Street Sense) raced near the lead in the Fukuryu Stakes before pulling away in the stretch for an impressive victory by more than 3 lengths. A $450,000 purchase as a yearling at Keeneland, he’s bred for the Derby distance — his damsire is Tapit — but will have a lot to overcome this weekend. Foreign-based horses haven’t had much success on Derby Day, and this will be Danon Bourbon’s first race with left turns (though he has trained going that direction in Japan). Of the three horses in this field that did their Derby prep overseas, he’s by far the most intriguing.
A good bet? Recent trends have indicated that, at some point, a horse based in Japan will win this race. Don’t think that’ll happen in 2026, but this guy is interesting.
8. So Happy (15-1)
Need to know: Clearly third best in the San Felipe Stakes behind Potente and Robusta (who didn’t have enough points to make the Derby field), So Happy bounced back in a big way to beat Potente by nearly 3 lengths in the Santa Anita Derby four weeks ago. In that one, he raced just off the leaders before making a nice move into the stretch and putting away Potente, an impressive-but-not-spectacular performance that earned a 100 Beyer. He got a perfect trip that day from Mike Smith, the 59-year-old jockey who has been aboard for all four of So Happy’s previous starts and will be looking for his third Kentucky Derby win. This colt’s sire is champion sprinter Runhappy, but distance shouldn’t be an issue. Runhappy’s sire was Derby winner Super Saver, and So Happy’s damsire is Blame, who handed the great Zenyatta (ridden by Smith) the only loss of her career in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs. This will be So Happy’s first start outside of California, and he’ll likely be close to the early pace Saturday.
A good bet? He’ll be in the crosshairs of the favorites at the end. Just don’t think he’s good enough to hold them all off.
9. The Puma (10-1)
Need to know: In the Fountain of Youth Stakes, The Puma came from the back of the pack with a wide run around the final turn and ultimately beat Further Ado with an impressive showing in the stretch. In the Florida Derby, he followed a similar path and appeared to claim another major victory before Commandment nailed him by a whisker at the wire. After not racing as a 2-year-old, The Puma ran four times in 11 weeks for trainer Gustavo Delgado, who had Mage on a similar schedule before he won the Kentucky Derby three years ago. Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano rode Mage and is back with The Puma, who is a son of Essential Quality, the top 3-year-old for the 2021 season. The Puma has been defeated by Renegade, Commandment and Chief Wallabee in his three losses, but he’s dealt well with adversity — something all the closers are likely to endure Saturday — and just keeps on getting better with each race.
A good bet? In a field that’s difficult to separate, The Puma appears primed for a big race. He’s the win bet this year, and anything close to 10-1 would be a steal.
10. Wonder Dean (30-1)
Need to know: The well-traveled Wonder Dean has run in Japan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, where he managed to win the UAE Derby in his last race, catching Six Speed in the stretch and putting the pacesetter away for a clear victory. His parents are both Japanese-bred horses, but look a little further back and Derby champions Sunday Silence and Charismatic are both prominent in his pedigree. The UAE Derby has sent 21 starters to the Kentucky Derby, and Forever Young — third place in 2024 and a star of the sport as an older horse — is the only one to hit the board. Ryusei Sakai will be Wonder Dean’s seventh different jockey in seven races. This will be the colt’s first race on American soil.
A good bet? There’s always an element of mystery to the foreign-based horses, but Wonder Dean doesn’t come close to matching the intrigue that others have brought over in recent years. No reason to think he’s in the mix Saturday.
11. Incredibolt (20-1)
Need to know: Incredibolt quit running as one of the favorites in the Holy Bull Stakes — not a great sign in his 3-year-old debut — but rebounded to score a visually impressive, 4-length victory in the mid-tier Virginia Derby, which got him enough points for this race. Trainer Riley Mott offered up no excuses for that Holy Bull dud, so the win in Virginia was sorely needed, and Incredibolt managed it by staying close to the pace and unleashing a great kick in the middle of the stretch. The competition will be much steeper Saturday, though he did win twice at Churchill Downs as a 2-year-old — Commandment and Further Ado are the only others here with one win in Louisville — and jockey Jaime Torres will be back aboard after riding the son of Bolt d’Oro for all five of his previous races. The seven-week layoff between the Virginia Derby and Saturday is notable. It would be the longest for a Kentucky Derby winner in modern history.
A good bet? One of the more interesting long shots and certainly worth considering in the exotic bets.
12. Chief Wallabee (8-1)
Need to know: He beat The Puma in his racing debut Jan. 10, then came from the back of the pack to nearly defeat Commandment in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, his second career start. Racing closer to the leaders in the Florida Derby, he experienced some traffic issues but found his way out of it and finished within a length of those two top Derby contenders. This will be just his fourth career start, and he’s looked pretty green so far, but the talent is undeniable. Chief Wallabee has earned 99 and 100 Beyers in his two graded stakes starts and will add blinkers Saturday, perhaps leading to a more-focused run. Two-time Derby winner Bill Mott is the trainer, and Junior Alvarado, who won last year’s Derby, has been aboard for all of his starts, which have all come at Gulfstream Park so far. His first workout at Churchill Downs last week turned heads, however, and the buzz hasn’t quieted down.
A good bet? There’s big upside here, and maybe the blinkers will settle him down, but he seems like one who might find trouble in a 20-horse field. A high-risk, high-reward play.
13. Silent Tactic (20-1)
Need to know: Silent Tactic was scratched from the race Wednesday morning due to a bruised foot.
14. Potente (20-1)
Need to know: Speaking of buzz horses, Bob Baffert’s best shot at a seventh Kentucky Derby victory fits that bill. Even at 20-1 on the morning line, Potente has been a hot win pick among horse racing experts, and it’s not difficult to see why. He’s steadily improved in each of his three starts so far, and another similar move forward would put him in the thick of things Saturday. He raced near the leaders in the San Felipe Stakes, fell back in the early stretch and overcame traffic to score a gutsy victory. In the Santa Anita Derby, the son of Into Mischief was on the early lead and fought So Happy in the stretch before ultimately giving way. A $2.4 million purchase as a yearling — the most expensive in this field, by far — Potente has only raced at Santa Anita Park, but he managed a bullet time in his first Churchill Downs workout Sunday. Baffert has been known to send horses to the lead on Derby Day, but the pace could be hot here, and it seems like Potente might not need to go early.
A good bet? A clearly improving Baffert horse with regal bloodlines at these odds? You can’t ignore him.
15. Emerging Market (15-1)
Need to know: All the “buzz” horses will be packed together in the Derby starting gate, it seems. Emerging Market has become the wise-guy pick in this field. He debuted Feb. 7 and has just two career starts. Leonatus is the last horse to win the Derby in his third start. That was in 1883, and even he ran as a 2-year-old. But Emerging Market’s 97 Beyer in his career debut drew attention, and his Louisiana Derby victory — racing midpack before a nice move in the final turn — stamped him as a contender for Saturday. Five-time champion trainer Chad Brown is looking for his first Derby win, and he’s been high on this colt. Elite jockey Flavien Prat is his regular rider. He’s been training well since that Louisiana Derby win in March and turned in a bullet workout in Florida before shipping to Louisville. A son of Candy Ride with a pedigree for the Derby distance, he could be a superstar.
A good bet? There’s a lot to like here, but is this race at this stage of his career an example of “too much, too soon”? That seems more likely than seeing him with the roses Saturday.
16. Pavlovian (30-1)
Need to know: Trained by two-time Derby winner Doug O’Neill, this colt has taken quite the path to Churchill Downs. His 10 career races are the most in this field, and he raced a whopping seven times as a 2-year-old, though he won only once in that stretch and never looked particularly promising. Pavlovian ran close to the early leader in the Sunland Derby and then ran him down in the stretch to win a photo finish. He then set a fast pace in the Louisiana Derby and fought Emerging Market hard in the stretch before losing by a head. There’s definitely a lot of grit in this son of Pavel, and he looks like the type that can maintain a good run even if he’s part of the early pace battle, which seems a likely scenario. While there aren’t a lot of speed horses in this field, all it takes is one to set a blistering pace.
A good bet? You have to respect the heart he’s shown in recent races, but this guy running up front and holding off the talented closers in this group seems to be an unlikely result.
17. Six Speed (50-1)
Need to know: If you want a thrill in the early going, this is your guy. Six Speed, who has raced exclusively in Dubai, is the favorite to be the leader after half a mile. That’s the style he’s shown so far, and he breaks so well that the expectation is he’ll fly out of the gate, angle over as far as he can from this outside post and look for a good position out front entering the first turn. That’s easier said than done on Derby Day, and that’ll still be the easiest part. He was able to utilize that style to win the UAE 2000 Guineas in January and tried to do it again in the UAE Derby, but Wonder Dean ran by him in the stretch in that one. Churchill Downs expert Brian Hernandez Jr., who won the 2024 Kentucky Derby, will ride him for the first time.
A good bet? Expect to see him out front at the start. Don’t expect to see him in the thick of things at the finish.
18. Further Ado (6-1)
Need to know: If the Kentucky Derby were run at Keeneland, this guy would be the clear favorite. He earned his first win — in his third try, after two starts in New York — by romping to a 20-length victory over the Lexington track in October. Most recently, he won the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland by 11 lengths. His results otherwise prove he’s capable of success outside of Fayette County, with a second-place finish to The Puma earlier this year and a Grade 2 win at Churchill Downs to close his 2-year-old season. He typically likes to race near the leaders in the early going, and his 106 Beyer for the Blue Grass is the best in this field, by far, though his best number somewhere other than Keeneland is a 92. Irad Ortiz Jr. has been aboard for his last four races, but he’s riding Renegade on Saturday, so Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez (a three-time Derby winner) rides for the first time. Further Ado is one of three in this field trained by Brad Cox.
A good bet? The Blue Grass romp was impressive, but it’s fair to question who he’s beaten so far and if he can turn in a star performance away from Keeneland. Can’t bet all the favorites, and others in that tier look better suited for Saturday.
19. Golden Tempo (30-1)
Need to know: This is another colt who will be coming from way off the pace. He won the Lecomte Stakes from that position to start his 3-year-old campaign and then tried the same thing in the Risen Star Stakes, where he couldn’t get close enough to become a factor after a nice move into the stretch. The same thing happened in the Louisiana Derby, though he did finish within a length of Emerging Market in that race. His Beyer numbers have improved with every start, topping out at 88 in the Louisiana Derby, and that come-from-behind style is suited for Saturday, if he can stay out of trouble and actually find room to make that run at the end. Champion jockey Jose Ortiz is looking for his first Derby win and has been aboard for all of Golden Tempo’s starts. All four of those starts have also come at Fair Grounds in New Orleans, though he’s been working spectacularly at Keeneland in recent weeks. Distance shouldn’t be an issue for the son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin.
A good bet? He’s still improving and should be running late. Don’t be surprised if he hits the board at a big price.
20. Fulleffort (20-1)
Need to know: And here’s one more come-from-behind colt, though this gray son of Liam’s Map will bring a little mystery to the field. He’s never run on dirt. As a 2-year-old, Fulleffort raced four times on turf. As a 3-year-old, he’s raced three times over the Turfway Park synthetic surface. That Turfway path has led to success on Derby Day, with Rich Strike (first in 2022), Two Phil’s (second in 2023) and Final Gambit (fourth last year) running well over the Churchill Downs dirt after using the Jeff Ruby Steaks as their final prep. Fulleffort won that race, using a big move in the final turn to earn the victory. He’s also been working well over the Churchill dirt throughout April, and the far outside post shouldn’t be a problem. Look for him to break well, avoid trouble in the first few strides and angle toward the rail for a ground-saving trip before unleashing that move into the stretch. The Brad Cox trainee will be ridden for the first time by Tyler Gaffalione, who finished second on Sierra Leone in the 2024 Derby.
A good bet? He’s improved with every start this year, and the lack of dirt experience shouldn’t be scary. Among the most intriguing of the longer shots.
21. Great White (50-1)
Need to know: A big, gray colt, Great White ran his first three races over the Turfway synthetic course. In his final start there, he set just off the leaders before taking the lead into the stretch and holding off a fast-charging Fulleffort for the win. He moved to the dirt after that and engaged in a pace battle in the Blue Grass Stakes, where Further Ado overtook him in the final turn and ultimately beat him by more than 22 lengths. That being Great White’s only dirt start doesn’t inspire much confidence. He wasn’t exactly blazing fast on the Turfway surface either. He probably won’t be the pacesetter Saturday, but Great White does like to be near the lead, and he and first-time Derby jockey Alex Achard might have a difficult time getting across the track to find a good position before that first turn hits. Great White drew into the field when Silent Tactic scratched Wednesday morning.
A good bet? He hasn’t shown anything to warrant a wager Saturday.
Note: (22) Ocelli, (23) Robusta and (24) Corona de Oro have all been entered in the Derby, too, but they would need defections from the main field to make the race. A horse currently in the main field would have to scratch before 9 a.m. Friday to allow any of these horses into the race. All three of these entries have morning-line odds of 50-1.
