Basketball

From NBA Draft to NBA All-Star? Only a small percentage make it.

When the NBA Draft begins Thursday in Brooklyn, analysts will extol the abilities of nearly every player chosen, convincing fans that their team has just picked a surefire talent. Unfortunately for these fans, while the NBA Draft is much shorter than the drafts held by other leagues, only a tiny percentage of players will ever make an all-star team.

Since 2004, the first year of the 30-team NBA, 899 players have come off the board. Of those players, only 56 have gone on to become an all-star, a 6.2 percent rate of success.

A quick look at where those all-star players were selected in the draft shows that the first pick is where the all-star talent is most often found, with eight all-stars being taken first overall. Duke’s Zion Williamson is expected to be the holder of that chip come Thursday night.

However, No. 1 overall is by far a guarantee. Remember Anthony Bennett (2013), Greg Oden (2007) and Andrea Bargnani (2006)?

The pick with the second-highest quantity of all-stars during the time period studied was the ninth overall selection, which produced six, including such talent as Kemba Walker, DeMar DeRozan and Andre Iguodala.

As you’d expect, picks in the first round of the draft had a much higher chance of turning into an all-star than those in the second round. Only eight all-stars have come outside of the first round since 2004, including Paul Millsap and Marc Gasol.

Only the 35th overall pick produced more than one all-star player in the second round, yielding both DeAndre Jordan and Draymond Green.

Despite its better success rate, the first round isn’t a guarantee of landing an all-star, either. Twelve of the 30 first-round slots haven’t generated an all-star during the NBA’s current era, including the eighth overall pick and the 12-14 picks.

No undrafted players went on to become all-stars during the same period.

NBA all-stars in the draft

When every NBA all-star since 2004 was chosen in the draft (number of all-star selections in parentheses):

FIRST ROUND

No. 1 pick

2004: Dwight Howard (8)

2008: Derrick Rose (3)

2009: Blake Griffin (6)

2010: John Wall (5)

2011: Kyrie Irving (6)

2012: Anthony Davis (6)

2015: Karl-Anthony Towns (2)

2016: Ben Simmons (1)

No. 2 pick

2006: LaMarcus Aldridge (7)

2007: Kevin Durant (10)

2013: Victor Oladipo (2)

No. 3 pick

2005: Deron Williams (3)

2007: Al Horford (5)

2009: James Harden (7)

2012: Bradley Beal (2)

2014: Joel Embiid (2)

No. 4 pick

2005: Chris Paul (9)

2008: Russell Westbrook (8)

2015: Kristaps Porziņģis (1)

No. 5 pick

2004: Devin Harris (1)

2008: Kevin Love (5)

2010: DeMarcus Cousins (4)

No. 6 pick

2006: Brandon Roy (3)

2018: Damian Lillard (4)

No. 7 pick

2004: Luol Deng (2)

2009: Stephen Curry (6)

No. 8 pick

No all-star selections

No. 9 pick

2004: Andre Iguodala (1)

2007: Joakim Noah (2)

2009: DeMar DeRozan (4)

2010: Gordon Hayward (1)

2011: Kemba Walker (3)

2012: Andre Drummond (2)

No. 10 pick

2005: Andrew Bynum (1)

2008: Brook Lopez (1)

2010: Paul George (6)

No. 11 pick

2011: Klay Thompson (5)

No. 12 pick

No all-star selections

No. 13 pick

No all-star selections

No. 14 pick

No all-star selections

No. 15 pick

2011: Kawhi Leonard (3)

2013: Giannis Antetokounmpo (3)

No. 16 pick

2011: Nikola Vučević (1)

No. 17 pick

2005: Danny Granger (1)

2008: Roy Hibbert (2)

2009: Jrue Holiday (1)

No. 18 pick

No all-star selections

No. 19 pick

2009: Jeff Teague (1)

No. 20 pick

2004: Jameer Nelson (1)

No. 21 pick

2006: Rajon Rondo (4)

No. 22 pick

No all-star selections

No. 23 pick

No all-star selections

No. 24 pick

2006: Kyle Lowry (5)

No. 25 pick

No all-star selections

No. 26 pick

No all-star selections

No. 27 pick

No all-star selections

No. 28 pick

No all-star selections

No. 29 pick

No all-star selections

No. 30 pick

2005: David Lee (2)

2011: Jimmy Butler (4)

SECOND ROUND

Nos. 31-34

No all-star selections

No. 35 pick

2008: DeAndre Jordan (1)

2012: Draymond Green (3)

Nos. 36-38

No all-star selections

No. 39 pick

2012: Khris Middleton (1)

No. 40 pick

No all-star selections

No. 41 pick

2014: Nikola Jokić (1)

Nos. 42-44

No all-star selections

No. 45 pick

2008: Goran Dragic (1)

No. 46 pick

No all-star selections

No. 47 pick

2006: Paul Millsap (4)

No. 48 pick

2007: Marc Gasol (3)

Nos. 49-59

No all-star selections

No. 60 pick

2011: Isaiah Thomas (2)

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