One trend says Louisville football will beat Kentucky in this year’s Governor’s Cup
The trend says Louisville will beat Kentucky in Saturday’s Governor’s Cup game at Kroger Field.
What’s that? You say Kentucky owns a three-game series win streak. And it hasn’t been close. The Cats have ripped the Cards by a combined 153-44 in the last three meetings. Louisville hasn’t won in Lexington since 2017.
For Kentucky, the problem is that makes Saturday’s matchup a “circle game” for the Cardinals. True, UK-U of L is always important. This year, however, the 3 p.m. kickoff is no doubt one Coach Scott Satterfield’s team long ago circled, and underlined, on its calendar. And the 2022 Wildcats have not fared well in “circle games” this season.
South Carolina had Oct. 8 circled. You bet it did. The Gamecocks made no secret of their belief that to climb back up the SEC East ladder they needed to beat a Kentucky team that had won seven of the last eight series meetings.
And that’s exactly what Shane Beamer’s team did, knocking off Kentucky 24-14. True, UK quarterback Will Levis missed the game because of injury. Still, South Carolina was the more motivated team that night at Kroger Field. And it showed. Rarely have I seen Kentucky Coach Mark Stoops so disappointed in his team’s response.
Vanderbilt had Nov. 12 circled. You bet it did. The Commodores carried a 26-game SEC losing streak into Lexington that day. The ‘Dores had dropped six straight games to the Cats. That changed two weeks ago when an improving Vanderbilt turned its motivation into a 24-21 victory celebration.
So twice this season Kentucky has faced teams intent on snapping losing streaks to the Cats. And both times Kentucky failed to match that intensity.
Will that change Saturday? Is the third time the charm? To me, that’s the most important question heading into this year’s Governor’s Cup, one matching a 7-4 Louisville against a 6-5 Kentucky. On paper, it’s a fairly even matchup.
Indeed, Louisville is more than capable of making good on its intentions. Left for dead early in the season, Satterfield’s team has won five of its last six games. It boasts wins over then No. 10 Wake Forest (48-21) and No. 24 North Carolina State (25-10).
The Cards have done it with defense. They lead all Power Five teams with 28 forced turnovers. Eight came in the win over Wake Forest. The Cards rank No. 3 nationally in turnover margin.
“The way they are attacking and moving and line twists and bringing different backers and doing a lot of different things, it’s created some big plays for them,” Stoops said Monday.
We don’t know if Malik Cunningham, Louisville’s dynamic quarterback, will play Saturday. A shoulder injury kept him out of last week’s win over the Wolfpack. But the Cards know they don’t require Cunningham’s diverse talents to win. They’ve earned victories over Virginia (road) and the Wolfpack (home) without their QB1.
We do know Satterfield would love to earn his first series win. This is a rivalry, after all. An in-state rivalry. And the coach’s glaring lack of success against Kentucky — 0-2 by a combined 97-34 — no doubt sticks in the craw of the Cardinals faithful. Satterfield has heard about it. You know he has. And a U of L win over the Cats would top off what has been a surprisingly successful season.
On the flip side, Kentucky can finish its regular season with a 7-5 record. That would be a disappointing 7-5, to be sure, but certainly better than finishing 6-6. After a strong showing against top-ranked Georgia, a victory over the Cardinals would reward Stoops’ squad a momentum boost heading into a yet-to-be determined bowl game.
“For me, I think it’s very important to win the last game and it’s important to win the bowl game,” Stoops said Monday. “It sets the tone for the whole offseason and the morale of your team. And so, it’s a big game. It’s a rivalry.”
Stoops also said this: “I know (Louisville is) probably more confident probably this year than they’ve been with the way they’ve been playing.”
You better believe Louisville has had Nov. 26 circled.
