With special season in reach, will Stoops’ troops avoid the pitfalls of 2007?
Buckle up, the Kentucky Wildcats could be about to play six of the most consequential football games that UK has played in decades.
As No. 14 Kentucky (5-1, 3-1 SEC) prepares to face Vanderbilt (3-4, 0-3 SEC) on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. at Kroger Field, Coach Mark Stoops and his troops enter the second half of the season with a legitimate chance to complete a “special football season.”
UK has not had one of those since Fran Curci’s 1977 team finished 10-1.
Though this is the third time under Stoops that Kentucky has begun a season 5-1, the last time the Cats entered the second half of their schedule with a realistic shot at making it to the SEC Championship Game was in 2007.
That year, a team coached by Rich Brooks and featuring a high-octane offense led by Andre Woodson, Rafael Little, Jacob Tamme, Keenan Burton and Steve Johnson registered victories over No. 9 Louisville, No. 1 LSU and at defending SEC West champion Arkansas in rolling to a 6-1 start.
Entering the ninth Saturday of the 2007 season, Kentucky stood 6-2, 2-2 in the SEC, and was a 14-point favorite at home against a so-so Mississippi State squad.
Going into that MSU game, Kentucky needed to win, then have Florida lose to Georgia and South Carolina fall to Tennessee to put UK in control of its destiny in the battle for the SEC East championship with only three games left.
Lo and behold, Florida lost to Georgia.
South Carolina fell to Tennessee.
Alas, Kentucky crashed and burned.
With star running back Little and standout wideout Burton watching in street clothes due to injuries, No. 14 Kentucky turned the ball over six times, saw quarterback Woodson sacked three times and was humiliated, 31-14, by the underdogs from Mississippi State.
That was the day a potentially special UK season died.
Rather than completing a breakthrough year and contending for the SEC East title, the 2007 Cats limped home 1-4 and settled for the identical record (7-5) and bowl trip (Music City) Kentucky had the season before.
With the 2018 Wildcats having put themselves in the same position to do something memorable, can the current Cats avoid the pitfalls that sabotaged the ‘07 squad?
There are no certainties in SEC football but there are two prime reasons to believe the 2018 Cats are better situated to finish the deal than UK’s 2007 team proved to be.
1.) The open date fell far better for the 2018 Cats than it did for the 2007 Cats.
In 2007, Kentucky did not reach its off week until after that ninth game with Mississippi State. MSU came at the end of a stretch in which UK had played archrival U of L, at Arkansas, at South Carolina on a Thursday night, vs. LSU and Florida during a six-game stretch.
As a result, UK was beaten up physically and drained emotionally entering that Mississippi State game.
I will always believe the second half of that ‘07 season would have gone differently for Kentucky if its open date had come even a week earlier.
Conversely, the current Cats got their off week directly in the middle of their schedule. Stoops said at his weekly news conference Monday that the Wildcats used their time off “to heal up, rest up.”
Whatever happens the rest of the way, the 2018 Wildcats could not have asked for a better-timed midseason break.
2.) The schedule down the stretch looks far more manageable in 2018 than it was in 2007.
On paper, the second half of Kentucky’s 2018 schedule does not seem nearly as daunting as the one the 2007 Cats had to face.
Down the stretch in ‘07, UK lost to teams that finished with 11 wins (Georgia), 10 wins (Tennessee), nine wins (Florida) and eight wins (Mississippi State).
The 2018 Wildcats have only one team that presently has a winning record, No. 8 Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC), remaining on their schedule.
Unlike 2007, Kentucky still has two non-league games left to be played, vs. Middle Tennessee State (3-3, 2-1 Conference-USA) and at struggling Louisville (2-5, 0-4 ACC).
None of this means there are not tough games left for UK other than Georgia.
SEC road games at Missouri (3-3, 0-3 SEC) and Tennessee (3-3, 1-2 SEC) will be challenging.
Even Vandy bears some resemblance — a hungry SEC foe looking to use an upset of a No. 14-ranked UK to alter the arc of their season — to the Mississippi State team that derailed UK’s 2007 season.
Still, other than Georgia and Middle Tennessee (which has a soft remaining C-USA schedule), there are no teams left on UK’s schedule that are a cinch to finish above .500.
That’s the biggest reason the 2018 Wildcats are better positioned than the 2007 Cats were to complete a season to remember.
Mark Story: (859) 231-3230; Twitter: @markcstory