How No. 19 Kentucky and No. 3 Louisville match up — with a game prediction
How the No. 19 Kentucky Wildcats (8-3) and the No. 3 Louisville Cardinals (11-1) match up at each position — with a game prediction:
Small forward
▪ Kentucky’s Kahlil Whitney (5.2 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 41.5% FGs) was a surprise starter in UK’s 71-65 loss to Ohio State last Saturday. The 6-foot-6, 210-pound freshman finished with two points and one rebound in 10:40 of action. Either Whitney or fellow freshman wing Keion Brooks would seem best suited physically to draw the defensive assignment on Louisville star Jordan Nwora — but that’s asking a ton of first-year players.
▪ Louisville’s Jordan Nwora (21.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 41.4% three-point shooting) was chosen ACC Preseason Player of the Year and the 6-7, 225-pound junior has so far lived up to that billing. The Buffalo, N.Y., product had 23 points and 12 rebounds in U of L’s opening win at Miami (Fla.) and 22 points and 12 boards in a 58-43 beat down of Michigan. In U of L’s 71-58 loss to UK last year, Nwora had 17 points and seven rebounds but made only seven of 17 shots.
Advantage: Louisville
Power forward
▪ Kentucky’s EJ Montgomery (8.9 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 54.1% FGs, 44.4% FTs) had eight points and 10 rebounds in UK’s unexpected 69-66 loss to Utah last week in Las Vegas, then came back with four points and five boards in the defeat to Ohio State. The 6-10, 228-pound sophomore had two points and two rebounds last season in 10 minutes against U of L.
▪ Louisville’s Dwayne Sutton (9 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 59.1% FGs) is an undersized battler who, at 6-5, 220, leads U of L in rebounding. The Manual High School graduate claimed 11 rebounds vs. Michigan and nine in the Cardinals’ 70-57 loss to Texas Tech. In two prior games vs. UK, the senior, a transfer from UNC Asheville, has never made much of an impact. Sutton is a combined 0-of-5 on field goals in his career vs. the Cats with two points and three rebounds.
Advantage: Louisville
Center
▪ Kentucky’s Nick Richards (11.9 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 68.8% FGs) hopes what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. The 6-11, 247-pound junior had five points and four rebounds in the loss to Utah, and no points, no rebounds, one blocked shot and two steals in the defeat against Ohio State. Two seasons ago against Louisville, Richards had four points and six rebounds in 17 minutes in UK’s 90-61 win at Rupp Arena. The Kingston, Jamaica, product had no points and three rebounds vs. U of L last year.
▪ Louisville’s Steven Enoch (11.1 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 56.8% FGs) had double-doubles in the wins at Miami (Fla.) (11 points, 12 rebounds in 19 minutes) and over Michigan (13 points, 10 boards). The 6-10, 255-pound senior from Norwalk, Conn., makes an occasional three-pointer (4-of-15 this season). The transfer from Connecticut had nine rebounds against UK last season but made only two of six shots for five points.
Advantage: Louisville
Shooting guard
▪ Kentucky’s Tyrese Maxey (13.1 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 3.1 apg) averaged 16.5 ppg in UK’s two games in Las Vegas. However, the 6-3, 198-pound freshman from Garland, Texas, continues to struggle with his three-point shot. Over the past five games, Maxey is 2-of-20 on treys, lowering his season percentage to 25 percent (12-of-48).
▪ Louisville’s Ryan McMahon (9.8 ppg, 46.3% three-point shooting) has surprised many by holding a starting job. Like many outside-shooting specialists, the 6-foot, 185-pound senior blows hot and cold. The Sarasota, Fla., product hit four of seven three-point shots and had 16 points at Miami and made three of six treys and scored 11 points vs. Pitt; conversely, he hit only one of five threes and scored four points vs. Michigan and made one of four for three points vs. WKU. McMahon is 0-of-6 shooting in his career vs. UK, 0-of-4 on treys.
Advantage: Kentucky
Point guard
▪ Kentucky’s Ashton Hagans leads the Wildcats in scoring (13.9 ppg), assists (7.3 apg) and steals (2.1 spg). The 6-3, 198-pound sophomore from Cartersville, Ga., is not known as a fluid outside shooter but over the past five games his three-point percentage (33% on 4-of-12) is the best among UK’s three main guards. Hagans had 11 points, three steals and three assists in last season’s Kentucky win at Louisville.
▪ Louisville’s Darius Perry (5.8 ppg, team-best 4.6 apg) has so far held off Lamarr “Fresh” Kimble and David Johnson for the starting point guard role. The 6-2, 195-pound junior from Marietta, Ga., has not had much luck in his career against Kentucky. Perry went scoreless in seven minutes in Rupp Arena two seasons ago and had five turnovers in 18 minutes against the Cats last year.
Advantage: Kentucky
Bench
▪ Kentucky graduate transfer Nate Sestina (7.6 ppg, 6 rpg, 38.1% three-point shooting) returned last week from a fractured left wrist that cost him three games. After going scoreless against Utah, the 6-9, 234-pound graduate transfer from Bucknell hit five of eight treys and scored 17 points vs. Ohio State. Sophomore guard Immanuel Quickley (11.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2 apg) is struggling with his outside shot — he is 5-of-20 on three-pointers over the past five games. Freshman forward Keion Brooks (6.5 ppg, 3.7 rpg) could be asked to play a major defensive role (see above) in this game.
▪ Louisville big man Malik Williams (7.6 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 54.1% FGs) played well in Rupp Arena two seasons ago, producing eight points and five boards in 15 minutes. Graduate transfer guard “Fresh” Kimble (4.3 ppg, 2.9 apg) has not yet had the impact some expected after he scored 958 career points at St. Joseph’s. Freshman wing Samuell Williamson (5.6 ppg, 3.5 rpg) was a 2019 McDonald’s All-American. Freshman guard David Johnson (3.3 ppg, 1.3 rpg) should be comfortable in Rupp Arena: He was the 2019 Kentucky Boys’ Sweet Sixteen MVP after leading Trinity to the state title.
Advantage: Kentucky
Intangibles and history
▪ Under John Calipari, Kentucky has won 10 out of 12 games against Louisville and is 5-0 vs. the Cardinals in Rupp Arena. UK leads the all-time series with U of L 36-16 and has dominated the modern series (since 1983) 27-13.
▪ Chris Mack lost last season in his debut in the UK-U of L rivalry as Louisville coach. Mack was an effective “rivalry coach” at Xavier, however, as he went 6-3 against crosstown rival Cincinnati.
▪ Kentucky has lost two games in a row, having fallen to Utah and Ohio State last week in Las Vegas. Under Calipari, the Cats have only lost three straight games one time. That came in the 2017-18 season, when the Wildcats lost four SEC games in a row.
Advantage: Kentucky
Prediction
Kentucky 64, Louisville 63.
