It feels like current Cats will flip UK’s recent NCAA tourney script — for good or bad
When the Kentucky Wildcats men’s basketball team visits Baton Rouge on Tuesday night for a crucial SEC contest against Louisiana State, there is every reason to expect that the Cats will play well.
If you use prior tendencies to predict future outcomes, John Calipari’s 2019-20 Wildcats have typically performed well on big stages and in hostile environments.
Yet, as we saw again in UK’s 67-62 slog past underdog Mississippi on Saturday in Rupp Arena, it is against lower-profile teams where the Cats (20-5, 10-2 SEC) seem atypically vulnerable.
If those trends hold, it is interesting to speculate how that could alter in 2020 what have been the parameters of Kentucky’s recent NCAA Tournament runs.
Using the NCAA’s NET Rankings, Kentucky has beaten the three of the four highest-ranked teams it has faced in 2019-20 — No. 9 Louisville, No. 12 Michigan State and No. 21 Texas Tech.
Against the top 25 in the NET (through games of Feb. 16), Kentucky is 3-2, with the losses coming in tightly-contested games against No. 18 Ohio State and at No. 25 Auburn.
Versus the top 50 in the NET, UK is 5-2.
Going into Tuesday night’s 9 p.m. tipoff vs. No. 29 LSU (18-7, 9-3 SEC), the Wildcats are 5-2 in true road games.
Conversely, where the current Cats have consistently flirted with disaster comes against less-hyped foes in settings where the marquee lights are not burning bright.
UK lost a conference road game on a heave at the buzzer when the Cats failed to put away a so-so South Carolina (No. 64 in the NET) team when Kentucky had a 14-point lead.
The Cats lost on a neutral court in December to a pedestrian Utah squad (No. 84 in the NET).
In a game that will long live in Kentucky hoops infamy, UK took an inexplicable home-court defeat from Evansville (No. 252 in the NET) in the season’s third game.
Kentucky has twice trailed Vanderbilt (No. 148 in the NET) at halftime before rallying to win.
The Wildcats were also behind Mississippi (No. 81 in the NET) at the intermission Saturday and were pushed to the final seconds before prevailing.
Teams that “play to the level of their competition” have long been a sports staple. That, so far, has been the modus operandi of the 2019-20 Kentucky Wildcats.
If the trend holds for UK, that obviously could have NCAA Tournament implications for the Cats.
In the Calipari era, Kentucky has been immune to the “David drops Goliath” early-round NCAA loss.
Such defeats have bedeviled other hoops blue bloods in the 21st century: Think Kansas (lost to Bucknell in 2005, Bradley in 2006, and Northern Iowa in 2010), Duke (Lehigh in 2012, Mercer in 2014), Louisville (Morehead State in 2011) and Arizona (Buffalo in 2018).
Having blasted Abilene Christian and survived Wofford in the 2019 NCAA tourney, UK is 13-0 since 2009-10 in the NCAA Tournament against teams from non-major basketball conferences.
Conversely, in recent seasons, UK’s NCAA Tournament kryptonite has come against foes from other Power Five leagues.
Starting with the soul-crushing loss to Big Ten opponent Wisconsin in the 2015 Final Four, Kentucky is 1-5 in its six most recent NCAA tourney games against other Power Five teams.
The Big Ten’s Indiana eliminated UK in the 2016 NCAA round of 32. In the 2017 tourney, Kentucky whipped the Pac-12’s UCLA in the Sweet 16, but was nipped at the final buzzer in the Elite Eight by the ACC’s North Carolina on Luke Maye’s jumper.
Kentucky’s 2018 NCAA tourney run was finished by the Big 12’s Kansas State in the Sweet 16, while fellow SEC member Auburn derailed UK in the 2019 Elite Eight in an excruciating overtime defeat.
The coming NCAA Tournament is expected to be one of the most wide-open and unpredictable ever.
Based on how the 2019-20 Kentucky season has gone to date, the Wildcats will be one of the most fascinating variables in the tourney.
One would think the team that lost to Evansville and Utah; that trailed Vanderbilt twice at halftime; and that has not won an SEC game by more than 14 points is more vulnerable to an early-round upset than Kentucky has seemed in a decade.
However, the same team has vanquished five of the seven highest-ranked foes it has met; seems to play its best basketball away from Rupp Arena; and has shown a knack for winning the close ones.
That’s why Kentucky might also be one of the biggest threats to the top seeds — including those from major conferences — of any team in March Madness.
