How No. 10 Kentucky and Florida match up — with a game prediction
How the No. 10 Kentucky Wildcats (21-5, 11-2 SEC) and the Florida Gators (17-9, 9-4 SEC) match up at each position — with a game prediction:
Small forward
▪ Part of Kentucky’s three-guard attack, freshman Tyrese Maxey (13.9 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.9 apg) has shown maturation in his game in UK’s most recent wins over Mississippi and at LSU. Though the 6-foot-3, 198-pound product of Garland, Texas, has not had his jump shot dialed in (1-of-9 three-pointers combined), Maxey has scored 14 points in each game while also averaging 4.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists in the two games.
▪ Florida’s Scottie Lewis (8.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg, team highs of 31 steals and 33 blocked shots) is also a freshman guard. The 6-5, 185-pound product of Hazlet, N.J., was ranked eighth in the 2019 Rivals 150, two spots ahead of Maxey. With a 6-11 wingspan, Lewis has emerged as Florida’s defensive stopper.
Advantage: Kentucky
Power forward
▪ Kentucky’s EJ Montgomery (6.3 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 51.7% FGs) had a quiet night in the Wildcats’ 79-76 win at LSU on Tuesday night, scoring four points and grabbing three rebounds in 12 minutes. The 6-10, 228-pound sophomore from Fort Pierce, Fla., did not score in two games against Florida last season but did claim 10 rebounds and block two Gators shots.
▪ Florida’s Keyontae Johnson (13.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 53% FGs, 39.1% three-pointers; 80.5% free throws) comes to Lexington off the best game of his career. In UF’s 73-59 home-court victory over Arkansas on Tuesday night, the 6-5, 231-pound sophomore had a double-double, 24 points and 10 rebounds. Johnson did most of his damage at the foul line vs. the Razorbacks, sinking 15 of 17 free throws. In two games, both losses, against Kentucky last season, Johnson averaged five points and 7.5 rebounds.
Advantage: Florida
Center
▪ UK’s Nick Richards (14.5 ppg, 8.1 rpg, team-high 60 blocked shots) spent his time in Baton Rouge showing his value as a rim protector. The 6-11, 240-pound junior from Kingston, Jamaica, blocked six LSU shots. Richards also had 13 points and six rebounds. Of Richards’ four prior games against Florida, his best was his first one. In a 66-64 loss to the Gators in Rupp Arena in 2017-18, Richards had eight points and nine rebounds.
▪ Former Virginia Tech standout Kerry Blackshear Jr. (13.2 ppg, 7.6 rpg) was the most coveted player available on the graduate-transfer market last offseason. An Orlando, Fla., product, Blackshear chose the Gators over Kentucky, among other suitors. In Gainesville, the 6-10, 241-pound senior has seen his field-goal percentage (43.9) drop almost 7 percent from last season (50.8) at Virginia Tech. Blackshear has played in Rupp Arena before: In Virginia Tech’s 93-86 loss to UK in 2017-18, he went for 18 points and five rebounds. (Kentucky’s Nick Richards, then a freshman, had eight points and six rebounds in that game).
Advantage: Kentucky
Shooting guard
▪ After UK’s Immanuel Quickley (15.2 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.0 apg) gave an especially strong performance (21 points, four rebounds, five assists, three steals) in the Wildcats’ win at LSU, the sophomore guard started to pick up some buzz for SEC Player of the Year consideration. Starting with his 18-point performance vs. Louisville, the 6-3, 188-pound product of Havre de Grace, Md., has scored in double figures in 12 straight games. A 91.2-percent foul shooter, Quickley has become UK’s “closer” in late-game situations.
▪ Florida’s Noah Locke (10.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 44.5% three-point shooting) has been scorching hot during the Gators’ current three-game win streak. The 6-3, 207-pound sophomore from Baltimore hit five of 10 treys while scoring 21 points in a win at Texas A&M; hit six of eight shots from behind the arc and scored 19 points in a victory over Vanderbilt; and made three of four threes while scoring 11 points in Tuesday’s win against Arkansas. Locke did not shoot well against UK last season, combining to go 4-of-16, 3-of-10 on three-pointers, in two Florida defeats.
Advantage: Kentucky
Point guard
▪ Kentucky’s Ashton Hagans (12 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 6.6 apg) was knocked out of the victory over LSU in the second half with what UK said was a thigh contusion. Before being injured, the 6-3, 198-pound sophomore from Cartersville, Ga., had 11 points, three rebounds and four assists with three turnovers. Hagans also hit two of four three-point tries. It was only the second time in the past 13 games that Hagans made multiple treys in a game.
▪ Florida’s Andrew Nembhard (11.9 ppg, 3 rpg, 5.5 apg, 29.7% three-point shooting) is another Gator who seems to be picking up steam in February. The 6-2, 193-pound sophomore from Aurora, Ontario, Canada, had 17 points and seven rebounds vs. Arkansas and hit Texas A&M with 24 points. When Florida rallied from 22 down in the second half to beat Georgia 81-75 on Feb. 5, Nembhard matched his career high with 25 points. Nembhard did not shoot well in Rupp Arena last season, going 1-of-8 (albeit while doling out eight assists) in the Gators’ 66-57 loss.
Advantage: Even
Bench
▪ Kentucky’s Nate Sestina (5.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg) played his best all-around game (11 points, eight rebounds, 3-of-4 three-point shooting) in the victory at LSU. At plus-15, the graduate transfer from Bucknell had the highest plus-minus rating of any UK player. Kentucky Coach John Calipari praised freshman guard Johnny Juzang (2.9 ppg, 2.0 rpg) for his role in calming the Wildcats late in the game against LSU’s full-court press. After averaging six rebounds in UK’s prior three games, freshman forward Keion Brooks (4.5 ppg, 3.4 rpg) had three boards at LSU.
▪ Florida’s bench is dominated by freshmen. Omar Payne (4.2 ppg, 4.0 rpg), a 6-10, 223-pound home-state product (Kissimmee), is shooting 61.5% from the field and 37.1 from the line. Tre Mann (5.2 ppg, 1.9 rpg), a 6-4, 172-pound Gainesville product, and 5-11, 176-pound Knoxville, Tenn., product Ques Glover (4.8 ppg, 23.1% three-point shooting) supply backcourt depth.
Advantage: Kentucky
Intangibles and history
▪ As Kentucky head coach, John Calipari is 16-8 against Florida — 8-2 in Rupp Arena, 5-5 in Gainesville and 3-1 in the SEC Tournament.
▪ Florida head man Mike White is 3-5 vs. UK, 1-3 in Lexington, 2-2 at home.
▪ The Gators are 3-5 in true road games, 3-3 in SEC away contests. Kentucky is 14-1 at home this year, with the loss coming to Evansville, 67-64, in the season’s third game.
Prediction
Kentucky 75, Florida 69.
