How No. 8 Kentucky and No. 15 Auburn match up — with a game prediction
How the No. 8 Kentucky Wildcats (23-5, 13-2 SEC) and the No. 15 Auburn Tigers (24-4, 11-4) match up at each position — with a game prediction:
Small forward
▪ Part of Kentucky’s three-guard attack, Tyrese Maxey (13.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.1 apg) had 13 points, five rebounds and three assists in UK’s 69-60 win at Texas A&M on Tuesday night. A 6-foot-3, 198-pound freshman, Maxey has scored in double figures in eight of Kentucky’s past nine games. The Garland, Texas, product had 22 points in the Wildcats’ 75-66 loss at Auburn on Feb. 1.
▪ The value of Auburn’s Isaac Okoro (13 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.0 apg, 51.3% FGs) was starkly shown when the Tigers went 1-2 when the freshman missed three games this month with a pulled hamstring. The 6-6, 225-pound product of Powder Springs, Ga., returned to the lineup and scored 10 points in Auburn’s 67-58 home win over Mississippi on Tuesday night. Okoro had 14 points in Auburn’s Feb. 1 victory over UK but made only three of 11 shots and six of 12 free throws.
Advantage: Even
Power forward
▪ Kentucky’s EJ Montgomery (6.4 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 52.8% FGs) turned in a stellar, all-around effort at Texas A&M with eight points, 10 rebounds, three assists, two steals and a blocked shot. The 6-10, 228-pound product of Fort Pierce, Fla., has grabbed eight rebounds or more in four of UK’s past seven games. In four career games vs. Auburn, Montgomery is averaging 2.0 ppg and 3.3 rpg. He had two points and four boards in this season’s first game vs. the Tigers.
▪ Auburn’s Danjel Purifoy (8.6 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 38.3% FGs) had 11 points and made three of six treys in this season’s Tigers’ victory over Kentucky. A 6-7, 230-pound senior from Centreville, Ala., Purifoy is 8-of-23 on field goals in four career games vs. UK, 6-of-16 on three-point tries. He has averaged 5.5 ppg and 3.0 rpg in his career vs. the Cats.
Advantage: Auburn
Center
▪ UK’s Nick Richards (13.9 ppg, 7.9 rpg, team-high 62 blocks, 65.8% FGs) has hit a lull in what has otherwise been a breakout season. The 6-11, 247-pound junior from Kingston, Jamaica, had four points in UK’s win at Texas A&M, his second straight game under double figures (nine vs. Florida) after scoring 10 or more points in 14 of the 15 prior games. Against a physical Auburn front line, Richards had seven points and seven rebounds in this year’s first game vs. the Tigers. He has averaged 3.2 ppg and 3.2 rpg against Auburn in five career games.
▪ Auburn’s Austin Wiley (10.6 ppg, 9.4 rpg, team-high 44 blocks, 57% FGs), a 6-11, 260-pound wide body, had 15 points and 11 boards in Tuesday’s victory over Ole Miss. In the Tigers’ earlier victory over UK, the Hoover, Ala., product went for 12 points and 10 rebounds. In four career games vs. Kentucky, Wiley has averaged 7.3 ppg and 4.3 rpg.
Advantage: Kentucky
Shooting guard
▪ UK’s Immanuel Quickley (team-best 16.2 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 42.9% three-pointers) continues to make a compelling case to be named SEC Player of the Year. After averaging 23.5 points in wins at LSU and over Florida last week, Quickley rifled in a career-high 30 points in UK’s victory at Texas A&M. The 6-3, 188-pound sophomore from Havre de Grace, Md., hit 11 of 19 field goals and eight of 12 treys vs. the Aggies. In UK’s earlier loss at Auburn, Quickley had a team-high 23 points.
▪ Auburn’s Samir Doughty (team-best 16.1 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 30.5% three-pointers) had 14 points, four rebounds, three assists and five turnovers in the win over Ole Miss. A 6-4, 195-pound senior, the transfer from VCU lived at the foul line in the Tigers’ earlier victory over Kentucky, hitting 14 of 15 foul shots en route to 23 points. Keeping Doughty off the foul line is vital: The Philadelphia native is only 6-of-20 from the field in four career games vs. UK.
Advantage: Kentucky
Point guard
▪ For Kentucky’s Ashton Hagans (11.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 6.5 apg, team-best 54 steals), Auburn has become a personal kryptonite. In UK’s 77-71 overtime loss to the Tigers in last season’s NCAA Tournament round of eight, Hagans had seven turnovers. The 6-3, 198-pound sophomore from Cartersville, Ga., had six turnovers in 20 minutes before fouling out of UK’s loss to Auburn this season. In four career games vs. the Tigers, Hagans has averaged 8.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 4.3 assists and 4.8 turnovers.
▪ Auburn’s J’Von McCormick (11.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 4.5 apg, team-best 32 steals) had four points, five rebounds, four assists and a turnover in this season’s prior victory over Kentucky. In four career games vs. the Wildcats, McCormick has never scored more than four points. The 6-foot, 185-pound senior from New Orleans has an almost 2-1 assist-to-turnover ratio (125 assists, 66 turnovers) for the season.
Advantage: Kentucky
Bench
▪ Kentucky’s Nate Sestina (5.6 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 40% three-pointers) hit a three-pointer for the only bench points for the Wildcats in the win at Texas A&M. The 6-9, 234-pound graduate transfer from Bucknell did not score in 18 minutes of the earlier meeting with Auburn. Freshman forward Keion Brooks (4.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg) played only two minutes at Texas A&M. The 6-7, 205-pound product of Fort Wayne, Ind., had four points, two rebounds and a block vs. Auburn in the first game. Freshman wing Johnny Juzang (2.6 ppg, 2 rpg) hit a three-pointer in the game at Auburn.
▪ Auburn’s Anfernee McLemore (7.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 33 blocks) has played against UK six times, and has hurt the Cats. The 6-7, 220-pound senior from Warwick, Ga., had 13 points and 11 boards in a 76-66 win over Kentucky in 2017-18. He went for eight points and five boards in last season’s NCAA tourney victory over UK. For his career, McLemore is averaging 7.0 ppg and 5.5 rpg vs. Kentucky. Perimeter players Devan Cambridge (4.6 ppg, 2.3 rpg), Jamal Johnson (3.7 ppg, 1.4 rpg) and Allen Flanigan (3.1 ppg, 2.7 rpg) round out a nine-man rotation.
Advantage: Auburn
Intangibles and history
▪ Kentucky leads the all-time series with Auburn 94-21. However, since Bruce Pearl became the Tigers’ head man, UK’s advantage is only 5-4. As top Cat, John Calipari is 11-4 against Auburn. Overall in their coaching careers, Calipari and Pearl have squared off 18 times, with Cal winning 11.
▪ Auburn will be appearing in Rupp Arena for the first time since the Tigers hung a 77-71 overtime loss on Kentucky in last season’s NCAA Tournament Midwest Region finals. For that reason, expect the decibel level in Rupp to reach its season apex Saturday.
▪ UK is 15-1 in Rupp Arena this season, the only defeat being the inexplicable 67-64 loss to Evansville in the third game of the year. Auburn is 4-4 in true road games in 2019-20.
Advantage: Kentucky
Prediction
Kentucky 76, Auburn 72.
This story was originally published February 28, 2020 at 7:20 AM.
