Here’s a big question Kentucky basketball must answer to get back on top
Long before the book is closed on the Kentucky Wildcats’ slog through the 2020-21 men’s college basketball season, one truth of what has gone wrong already stands self-evident.
In a season of disruption caused by a global pandemic, this was the worst possible time for John Calipari and Co. to enter a year with all but a completely new roster.
One need only look at the starting lineups of the teams ranked in the top five of this week’s Associated Press Top 25 to see how valuable experience has proven amid the challenges of COVID-19.
No. 1 and unbeaten Gonzaga (18-0) starts a senior, a redshirt junior, two sophomores and a freshman.
No. 2 and unbeaten Baylor (17-0) starts a redshirt senior, a senior and three juniors.
No. 3 and once-beaten Michigan (13-1) starts a redshirt senior, two seniors, a sophomore and a freshman.
No. 4 Ohio State (15-4) starts a redshirt senior, a senior, a redshirt junior, a junior and a sophomore.
No. 5 Villanova (12-2) starts two seniors, a redshirt junior and two sophomores.
The contrast of those teams with struggling Kentucky (5-12, 4-6 SEC) — UK usually starts three freshmen and two seniors, who both transferred to UK before this season from other universities — could not be more stark.
Moving forward, as Kentucky looks to reclaim its normal status as one of the nation’s top teams, one of the challenges will be ascertaining what lessons, if any, from this unusual college hoops season are applicable to the (hopefully) “normal” years to come.
In recent prior seasons, men’s NCAA Tournament success has been trending toward experienced teams.
Since Duke won the 2015 NCAA title with three one-and-done freshmen in its starting lineup and Kentucky reached the Final Four that same season with three soon-to-turn-pro frosh in its rotation, first-year college players have been rare among the starters of teams reaching the final weekend.
2016: Of the 20 players who started in the Final Four, 15 were seniors and juniors. Two were freshmen. National champion Villanova started two seniors, two juniors and a frosh.
2017: Of the 20 players who started in the Final Four, 14 were seniors and juniors. Two were freshmen. National champion North Carolina started two seniors and three juniors.
2018: Of the 20 players who started in the Final Four, 14 were seniors and juniors. Two were freshmen. National champion Villanova started three redshirt juniors, a junior and a redshirt freshman.
2019: Of the 20 players who started in the Final Four, 14 were seniors and juniors. Two were freshmen. National champion Virginia started a redshirt junior, two juniors, a redshirt sophomore and a freshman.
2020: No NCAA Tournament because of the coronavirus.
Since 2016, the two programs most closely identified with one-and-done-centric rosters — UK and Duke — have each gone 9-4 in the NCAA tourney with two trips apiece to the Elite Eight.
That’s not bad, but for programs who define success by Final Four trips and national titles, it’s not clearing their own achievement bar.
In Kentucky’s case, the Wildcats’ two most recent NCAA tourney losses came in games where the Wildcats’ relative youth proved a liability.
In being upset by Kansas State in the 2018 Sweet 16, UK’s all-freshman starting lineup was pushed around by a much less talented but far more experienced K-State roster. Bruce Weber’s crew used its maturity and physicality to negate Kentucky’s talent advantage.
While being eliminated by Auburn in a tense overtime game in the 2019 Elite Eight, UK’s all-freshman backcourt was schooled by Tigers veteran guards Bryce Brown (a senior) and Jared Harper (a junior).
To a degree, Kentucky has become a victim of its own success.
Calipari has so successfully branded UK as the quick path to the NBA that players with remaining eligibility who have no hope of being drafted — Isaiah Briscoe; Isaac Humphries; Wenyen Gabriel; Ashton Hagans; EJ Montgomery — turn pro early anyway.
Meanwhile, Kentucky players with the potential to develop into quality, multi-year college performers — Charles Matthews, Jemarl Baker, Johnny Juzang — transfer to other universities rather than stick it out in Lexington, perhaps out of fear of being “recruited over.”
Looking ahead, if the recent trickle of elite high school hoops prospects going directly to the NBA G League continues to grow, the pool of difference-making one-and-done talent will correspondingly diminish.
That will create even more impetus for Calipari and UK to incentivize at least some players coming to Kentucky for a longer haul.
Perhaps Wildcats recruiting pitches should focus more on Willie Cauley-Stein, PJ Washington, Immanuel Quickley and Nick Richards — players who wore UK blue for multiple seasons and developed into NBA Draft picks — rather than selling one-and-done.
For Kentucky basketball to get back on the beam, one of the keys is figuring out a way to consistently have more quality, multi-year players on Wildcats rosters.
