One thing that makes Kentucky college basketball special might be in jeopardy in 2021
If you like to boast that Kentucky is the best college basketball state, the following factoid should form the foundation of your case:
There has not been a men’s NCAA Division I basketball tournament played without at least one team from the commonwealth in the field since 1963.
Not counting last year’s canceled tournament (to which Northern Kentucky had secured an automatic bid), that is a streak of 56 NCAA tourneys in a row with a Kentucky team or teams in the bracket.
Yet as the 2020-21 men’s college hoops season bears down on March, the continuance of Kentucky’s NCAA tourney streak feels far more uncertain than normal.
The reason is that our state does not, as these words were written Friday afternoon, appear to have any team certain to claim an at-large bid on Selection Sunday. Without that, the commonwealth would be depending on the random processes that are league tournaments to keep its streak alive.
After a slog of a season, our state’s flagship program, the University of Kentucky (7-13, 6-7 SEC entering the weekend), has no hope to make the NCAA Tournament via an at-large bid.
On the surface, Louisville (11-4, 6-3 ACC) appears in good position to earn such an invite. Out of five media-generated “bracketologies” I looked at Friday, all projected Chris Mack’s Cardinals to be either an 8 or 9 seed in the 2021 NCAA Tournament.
In a normal year, a team being projected that high this close to the end of the season would seem a lock to make the Dance.
Alas, this year is anything but normal — and U of L’s tourney résumé has vulnerabilities.
Of the 11 victories Louisville carried into Saturday — when the Cards were scheduled to play at North Carolina — exactly none were of the Quadrant One (those graded most impressive by the NCAA Tournament selection criteria) variety.
Meanwhile, because of COVID-19 protocols, Louisville entered this weekend having not played a game since Feb. 1.
Adding to the uncertainty, U of L’s remaining schedule is daunting. The Cardinals were slated for road games vs. North Carolina (No. 51 in the NCAA NET rankings), Duke (No. 60) and Virginia Tech (No. 36) plus home contests with Notre Dame (No. 65) and Virginia (No. 9).
Now, maybe injured big man Malik Williams returns and Louisville parlays its late-season schedule into some Quadrant One wins (it has a chance at four in its remaining five games based on Friday’s NET rankings).
It seems equally possible that a team whose season has been disrupted by repeated coronavirus-related pauses could do a lot of losing during this late run of tough games and imperil its NCAA tourney hopes.
If the latter happens, Western Kentucky (15-4, 8-2 C-USA) is the only other in-state team with even a remote hope of earning an at-large bid.
Rick Stansbury’s Hilltoppers own the most impressive victory recorded by a Kentucky team this season, a road win over Alabama — which has gone on to become the SEC leader and the No. 7 team in the NET Rankings (as of Friday).
A win at Marshall (No. 69 in the NET) gives WKU a second Quadrant One win.
What weighs down Western’s at-large hopes is that, of the Hilltoppers’ 15 victories, a whopping eight currently rate as Quadrant Four (those deemed least impressive under the NCAA Tournament selection criteria) wins.
So, unless Louisville does enough to earn an at-large bid, it seems likely our state’s NCAA Tournament participation streak rides on one of the commonwealth’s teams winning a conference tourney.
Which is a spin of the hoops roulette wheel.
Western, led by star big man Charles Bassey, will likely be considered the favorite in the C-USA Tournament. However, WKU has not played in an NCAA Tournament since 2013 and lost in the conference tourney finals in 2018 and 2019.
You wonder how much pressure that past will put on the current Hilltoppers.
In the Ohio Valley Conference, Morehead State (16-7, 13-3 OVC) and Eastern Kentucky (18-5, 12-4 OVC) have both enjoyed stellar seasons. Traditional power Murray State (12-10, 9-8 OVC) will be aspiring to a Cinderella run through the league tournament.
Problem is, OVC giant Belmont (23-1, 17-0) will have to be slayed for one of the Kentucky schools to win the conference tourney.
Northern Kentucky (12-9, 10-6 Horizon League) has won three of the past four Horizon League tournaments. This year, Wright State (17-4, 15-3) and Cleveland State (15-6, 15-3) will be favored to end the reign of the rebuilding Norse.
Though it is one of the best stories in college hoops, Bellarmine (13-5, 10-2 ASUN) will not be the team that extends Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament streak in 2021.
In first place in the ASUN and winners of 10 straight, the Knights are in their first year transitioning from Division II to Division I and are therefore ineligible for the NCAA Tournament.
So in a year when UK has struggled so, wouldn’t if be something if extending the commonwealth’s NCAA Tournament streak comes down to John Calipari’s Wildcats having to win the SEC tourney.
