NCAA Tournament picks: Two Big Ten teams, one from SEC, will join Gonzaga in Final 4
Predicting the 2021 NCAA Tournament:
Final Four
Gonzaga. As ever, the big question about Mark Few’s Bulldogs is whether a steady diet of West Coast Conference teams will have them tourney-tough.
Alabama. The uncertainty surrounding injured Michigan standout Isaiah Livers (stress fracture in a foot) opens up the East Region for Nate Oats, Herbert Jones and the brash Crimson Tide.
Ohio State. Baylor has not seemed the same team since returning from its long COVID-19 pause. That could open the door for the Buckeyes — coached by Kentucky native Chris Holtmann.
Illinois. Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn lead the team that is playing the best from the conference — the Big Ten — considered this season’s best.
National champion
Gonzaga over Illinois. Dynamic freshman lead guard Jalen Suggs is the X-factor that is going to push the Zags over the hump to their first national championship — and to the first undefeated NCAA title since Indiana in 1976.
Kentucky team
Morehead State. Preston Spradlin’s tough-minded Eagles are the No. 14 seed in the Midwest Region. Led by star freshman big man Johni Broome, MSU will play No. 3 West Virginia competitively before falling.
Upset specials
▪ No. 12 seed UC Santa Barbara will upset No. 5 Creighton, then stun No. 4 seed Virginia en route to a Cinderella run to the West Region round of 16.
▪ No. 12 seed Winthrop will upset No. 5 Villanova, which has lost starting point guard Collin Gillespie to a torn MCL.
▪ No. 10 seed Virginia Tech, coached by the estimable Mike Young (of Wofford fame), will oust No. 7 Florida.
Bracket breakdown
1. If you average the Pomeroy Rating for the top four seeds in each region, the toughest is the West (9.75 average), followed by the South (10.5), East (12.75) and the Midwest (16.5).
2. Interestingly, the Selection Committee, chaired by the University of Kentucky’s Mitch Barnhart, placed both Kansas (No. 3 seed) and Virginia (No. 4) in the West Region. Both teams had to withdraw from their conference tournaments due to COVID-19 protocols.
3. Louisville was identified as the first team out of the field of 68. Chris Mack’s Cardinals would be the initial replacement team added to the NCAA tourney if someone (see above) has to pull out before the tournament starts due to the coronavirus.
4. If U of L is not a late add, this year will be only the second time since 1991 that the commonwealth of Kentucky has only one team in the men’s NCAA Tournament. The last time it happened was 2016, when UK, as our state’s sole representative, lost to Indiana in the round of 32.
5. It has become accepted wisdom among the statistics nerds that teams with a high propensity for committing turnovers are acutely vulnerable to NCAA Tournament upsets. If so, East Region No. 4 seed Florida State would seem a risky selection in pools. Coach Leonard Hamilton’s Seminoles have turned the ball over an average of 18.6 times a game in their past five contests.
