The must-win game for Mark Stoops and UK football in 2021 is not who you think
The University of Kentucky now being a football school, it felt imperative to write on the topic that columnists who cover such schools focus on even in the hoops-mad month of March.
That would be football.
The schedule that Mark Stoops and troops (5-6 in 2020) will face in 2021 might contain the most unusual dynamic of any slate a UK football team has faced in eons.
Amazingly, Kentucky will play only two FBS foes in 2021 — Florida (8-4) and Georgia (8-2) — that had winning records the previous year.
Every other FBS team UK will face in the coming season either broke even in the coronavirus-disrupted 2020 season or had a losing mark.
In descending order of wins, UK will also play:
LSU 5-5, Missouri 5-5, Louisville 4-7, Mississippi State 4-7, Tennessee 3-7, South Carolina 2-8, New Mexico State 1-1 (2-10 in last full season in 2019), Vanderbilt 0-9 and Louisiana Monroe 0-10.
(Chattanooga, Kentucky’s FCS opponent in 2021, is playing a spring schedule and stood 3-1 going into Saturday’s game vs. Mercer).
Based on the 1.) likelihood of UK winning; and 2.) the program ramifications that would come with victory, let’s rank the 2021 Kentucky football opponents in search of the most pivotal game:
10-12. The non-Louisville, non-league games. Games such as ULM (Sept. 4), Chattanooga (Sept. 18) and New Mexico State (Nov. 20) really only resonate if you lose one.
Likelihood of UK winning: High.
Program ramifications of victory: Low.
9. At Georgia. In his eight prior seasons as Kentucky head coach, Stoops has played the Bulldogs within a touchdown only once — a 27-24 loss in 2016. UK hasn’t even scored a touchdown on the Dawgs since 2018.
Overall, the Wildcats have not beaten Georgia since 2009, a streak of 11 straight losses.
This year, the Cats will face Georgia (Oct 16) on the road after playing Florida and LSU the two previous weeks. It will be the seventh of seven straight games for Kentucky.
Likelihood of UK winning: Very low.
Program ramifications of victory: Massive.
8. LSU. After starting last season 3-5, Ed Orgeron’s crew closed with an upset at Florida and a shootout victory over Mississippi. LSU will bring a talented roster and revamped coaching staff to Lexington on Oct. 9.
Stoops is 4-14 as Kentucky coach vs. the SEC West and 1-9 vs. SEC West foes other than Mississippi State.
Likelihood of UK winning: Low but not impossible.
Program ramifications of victory: High.
7. At Vanderbilt. UK has beaten Vandy (Nov. 13) six out of seven. The goal in 2021 is to extend that mastery to the regime of new Commodores Coach Clark Lea.
Likelihood of UK winning: Good.
Program ramifications of victory: Low.
6. At South Carolina. UK has beaten South Carolina (Sept. 25) six out of seven. The goal in 2021 is to extend that mastery to the regime of new Gamecocks Coach Shane Beamer.
Likelihood of UK winning: Good.
Program ramifications of victory: Low.
5. At Mississippi State. Kentucky has not beaten State (Oct. 30) in Starkville since 2008. The Cats have not won over the Bulldogs two years in a row since 2005 and 2006.
Likelihood of UK winning: Moderate.
Program ramifications of victory: Moderate.
4. Florida. UK has not vanquished Florida in Lexington since 1986, but the Cats have been agonizingly close the past two times the teams have met at Kroger Field.
In both 2017 and 2019, Kentucky lost after leading by double-digits in the fourth quarter.
This year, the Wildcats get the Gators in Lexington on Oct. 2, the first game of a three-game stretch of Florida, LSU, at Georgia.
Likelihood of UK winning: Moderate.
Program ramifications of victory: Massive.
3. At Louisville. Kentucky has beaten its intrastate rival three out of four and two in a row, the latter two by a combined 101-23.
Keeping Scott Satterfield & Co. (Nov. 27) from a Governor’s Cup breakthrough presumably would help UK extend what has been a substantial in-state recruiting advantage over U of L in recent years.
Likelihood of UK winning: Good.
Program ramifications of victory: High.
2. Tennessee. Did UK’s 34-7 beatdown of UT last season in Knoxville alter the fundamental dynamic of this traditionally lopsided border rivalry?
Kentucky can back up that victory by beating the Volunteers in Lexington on Nov. 6. It would be the first back-to-back wins for the Big Blue over the Big Orange since 1976 and 1977.
Likelihood of UK winning: Good.
Program ramifications of victory: High.
1. Missouri. The Tigers’ 20-10 victory over UK last year in Eli Drinkwitz’s first season as coach snapped a five-game Kentucky win streak in the series.
To maintain their improved standing in the SEC East, the Wildcats need to reassert their hold over Mizzou.
More immediately, Missouri (Sept. 11) is Kentucky’s second game of the season. A UK victory could set the Cats up for a 4-0 start.
That would make it far more likely that the Wildcats can reach the eight-win level (or better) in the regular season for only the second time since 1984.
For reasons both big picture and short term, Mizzou is the pivotal game of the 2021 Kentucky football season.
Likelihood of UK winning: Moderate.
Program ramifications of victory: Massive.
