How Kentucky and Florida match up — with a game prediction
How the Kentucky Wildcats (4-0, 2-0 SEC) and No. 10 Florida Gators (3-1, 1-1 SEC) match up at each position — with a game prediction:
Quarterbacks
▪ Kentucky’s Will Levis (65.3 percent completions, 902 passing yards, seven touchdowns vs. five interceptions) had his least-prolific passing effort of the season (15-of-22 for 102 yards and an interception) in the Cats’ 16-10 win at South Carolina last week. Increasingly, teams have deployed multiple deep safeties against Levis to take away “the long ball” and force the 6-foot-3, 232-pound junior to prove he can be accurate and show touch on intermediate throws. However, Florida defensive coordinator Todd Grantham is known for aggressive blitz packages and man-to-man coverage, so Levis may have some chances to throw deep — if Kentucky can pass protect.
▪ Florida’s Emory Jones produced a Tim Tebow-like performance in the Gators’ 38-14 rout of Tennessee last week. The 6-foot-2, 211-pound redshirt junior ran for 144 yards and threw for 209 yards and two TDs. For the season, the LaGrange, Ga., product, has rushed for 375 yards and two TDs and thrown for 668 yards and four scores. Like Levis, Jones has thrown five interceptions. Dynamic backup Anthony Richardson (275 yards and two TDs rushing, 192 yards and two TDs passing) is expected back after missing the past two games with a hamstring injury. In Florida’s past two trips to Kroger Field, a backup QB has rallied the Gators from double-digits down in the fourth quarter to victory.
Advantage: Florida.
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Running backs
▪ UK’s Christopher Rodriguez (522 yards, three TDs, 6.1 yards per carry) is tied for third in the FBS in rushing. A 5-11, 224-pound junior from McDonough, Ga., Rodriguez (1,883 career yards) needs 89 yards to pass former teammate A.J. Rose for 10th on Kentucky’s all-time rushing list. Having fumbled twice against both Missouri and South Carolina, Rodriguez obviously needs to tighten up the ball security. Change-of-pace back Kavosiey Smoke had his best game of 2021 so far (nine carries, 51 yards, one TD) last week.
▪ Florida’s QB-run game has gotten most of the attention, but the Gators’ running-back corps is deep and talented. Redshirt senior Malik Davis (257 rushing yards, three TDs, 6.3 ypc), senior Dameon Pierce (172 yards, five TDs, 6.6 ypc) and redshirt sophomore Nay’Quan Wright (131 yards, one TD, 5.5 ypc) are all capable.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Wide receivers
▪ Kentucky junior slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson (25 catches, 402 yards, two TDs) has exceeded high expectations after transferring from Nebraska. The 5-10, 183-pound Western Hills High School product is second in the SEC in receiving yards and third in all-purpose yards (123.25 a game). Super-senior Josh Ali (16 catches, 233 yards, one TD) lost two fumbles last week and is another who needs to secure the ball.
▪ Florida’s Jacob Copeland (10 catches, 232 yards, two TDs) is the Gators’ go-to receiver. Penn State transfer Justin Shorter (nine catches, 88 yards) had a productive showing vs. Tennessee (three catches, 54 yards). Trent Whittemore (six catches, 56 yards) threw a TD pass on a trick play vs. Tennessee.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Tight ends
▪ A converted wide receiver, Kentucky sophomore Izayah Cummings (three catches, 53 yards, one TD) had the pivotal block on Kavosiey Smoke’s 15-yard TD run last week. Junior Brenden Bates (four catches, 21 yards, one TD) had a 15-yard reception at South Carolina.
▪ Florida redshirt senior Kemore Gamble (eight catches, 68 yards, one TD) caught a TD last week on the wide receiver pass. Junior Keon Zipperer has caught four passes for 51 yards.
Advantage: Florida.
Offensive linemen
▪ Kentucky center Luke Fortner was named SEC Offensive Lineman of the Week for a second time in 2021 for his play at South Carolina. The 6-6, 297-pound super-senior had 26 blocks at the point of attack, and did not miss an assignment or allow any quarterback pressures vs. the Gamecocks.
▪ Florida redshirt sophomore center Kingsley Eguakun has helped galvanize a Gators offensive front that has been one of the team’s pleasant surprises. At 6-6, 345, right guard Stewart Reese, a Mississippi State transfer, provides the bulk along the Gators’ line.
Advantage: Even.
Defensive linemen
▪ UK’s Marquan McCall may have had the most-impactful one-tackle game in college football history at South Carolina. The 6-3, 357-pound nose guard was a persistently disruptive presence on the Gamecocks’ side of the line of scrimmage. Sophomore Octavious Oxendine, a 6-1, 302-pound North Hardin product, made his first career start in Columbia at tackle and made two stops.
▪ Florida tackle Zachary Carter is third in the SEC with 4.5 sacks. A 6-4, 285-pound redshirt senior, Carter had two QB hurries vs. No. 1 Alabama. Nose guard Antonio Valentino (four tackles, one tackle for loss) is a former teammate of Will Levis at Penn State.
Advantage: Florida.
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Linebackers
▪ Kentucky WLB DeAndre Square (tied for team lead with 24 tackles) came up big at South Carolina, making a team-high eight stops. After sitting out UK’s 28-23 win over Chattanooga two weeks ago, OLB/rush end Jordan Wright returned and made three tackles and broke up two passes last week.
▪ Florida’s Mohamoud Diabate, a 6-3, 227-pound junior, is tied for the team lead with 26 tackles and has two QB hurries. The Auburn, Ala., product had six tackles and a pass interception in Florida’s 34-10 win over Kentucky last year in Gainesville.
Advantage: Florida.
Defensive backs
▪ UK backup safety Jalen Geiger, a product of Columbia, S.C., was a hometown hero last week at South Carolina, making some timely stops late in UK’s win. Sophomore cornerback Carrington Valentine made four tackles and had a QB sack off a corner blitz last week.
▪ Florida strong safety Trey Dean had a monster game vs. Tennessee, with 11 tackles, half a sack and a pass breakup. The 6-3, 206-pound senior is tied for the team lead with 26 tackles. Cornerback Kaiir Elam (eight tackles, three breakups, one interception) is considered one of the SEC’s best DBs.
Advantage: Florida.
Special teams
▪ Kentucky place-kicker Matt Ruffolo went 3-of-3 on field-goal tries to supply UK’s winning margin at South Carolina. Ruffolo is now 4-of-5 on field goals this season, and the miss was a blocked kick that resulted from a protection mistake. Since assuming the punting duties two games back in place of an injured Wilson Berry, Colin Goodfellow has averaged 46.3 yards on seven kicks and has pinned opponents inside their 20-yard line three times.
▪ Florida punter Jeremy Crawshaw is third in the SEC, averaging 46.6 yards a kick. He has stopped five of his 10 punts inside the 20. The Gators have only attempted two field goals this season. Chris Howard hit from 25 yards, and Jace Christmann was accurate from 47.
Advantage: Even.
Prediction
Florida 35, Kentucky 30.
This story was originally published September 30, 2021 at 7:56 AM.
