How No. 12 Kentucky and Mississippi State match up — with a game prediction
How the No. 12 Kentucky Wildcats (6-1, 4-1 SEC) and the Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-3, 2-2 SEC) match up at each position — with a game prediction:
Quarterbacks
▪ Kentucky’s Will Levis (67.2 completion percentage, 1,326 passing yards with 13 touchdowns vs. six interceptions) was one of the bright spots in UK’s 30-13 loss at No. 1 Georgia two Saturdays ago. Against the nation’s best defense, the 6-foot-3, 232-pound product of Madison, Conn., completed 32 of 42 passes (while being victimized by multiple drops) for 192 yards and two touchdowns. It was the second straight strong performance for the Penn State transfer, who completed 14 of 17 throws for 145 yards and three TDs in UK’s 42-21 win over LSU on Oct. 9.
▪ As one would expect from a QB running Mike Leach’s version of the Air Raid, Mississippi State’s Will Rogers is the SEC’s leading passer (2.546 yards with a 73.5% completion percentage and 18 touchdowns vs. seven picks). A 6-2, 210-pound sophomore from Brandon, Miss., Rogers spreads the ball around: He completed passes to 13 different receivers in State’s 45-6 pasting of Vanderbilt last week. However, Rogers has thrown five of his seven interceptions in the past two games. In Kentucky’s 24-2 win over MSU last season in Lexington, Rogers relieved an ineffective K.J. Costello and tossed two of the six picks the Bulldogs threw in that game.
Advantage: Even.
Running backs
▪ A 5-11, 224-pound product of McDonough, Ga., UK star Christopher Rodriguez remains the SEC’s leading rusher (775 yards, five TDs, an average of 6.1 yards per carry) in spite of having 7 yards on seven carries in Kentucky’s loss at Georgia. Change-of-pace back Kavosiey Smoke (277 rushing yards, one TD, 5.5 ypc) was the leading Cats’ rusher in Athens with 14 yards on five carries.
▪ Mississippi State’s top rusher, Dillon Johnson, has run for only 207 yards (with one TD and a 4.8 ypc average). However, it is the short-passing game where the MSU backs make their mark. A 5-10, 205-pound sophomore, Jo’quavious Marks has caught 49 passes for 289 yards and two TDs. The 6-foot, 215-pound Johnson, also a sophomore, has caught 38 passes for 231 yards.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Wide receivers
▪ Kentucky junior slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson (49 catches, 566 yards, five TDs) had a busy day against Georgia (12 catches, one for a TD) but was the focus of so much Bulldogs’ defensive attention he had only 39 receiving yards. The expected return at MSU of super senior Josh Ali (17 catches, 248 yards, one TD) should create some openings for Robinson. Sophomore DeMarcus Harris (four catches, 45 yards) came through at Georgia (two catches, 31 yards). “I’d like to see him continue to build on that, we need him to,” UK Coach Mark Stoops said of Harris. “I think he will have some opportunities.”
▪ A 6-3, 200-pound redshirt sophomore, Mississippi State’s Makai Polk (58 catches, 552 yards, six TDs) is the top MSU receiving threat. Sophomore Jaden Walley (30 catches, 338 yards, four TDs) and redshirt senior Austin Williams (29 catches, 296 yards, one TD) are also capable.
Advantage: Mississippi State.
Tight ends
▪ Kentucky super senior Justin Rigg (10 catches, 109 yards, one TD) played well at Georgia (four catches, 24 yards, one TD). Sophomore Izayah Cummings (six catches, 75 yards, one TD) injured a shoulder in Athens. It is uncertain whether the Male High School product will be available in Starkville.
▪ At 6-3, 220, Mississippi State “X” receiver Malik Heath (25 catches, 272 yards, three TDs) is the largest of the four wideouts used in MSU’s Air Raid. He caught three passes for 26 yards and a TD in the win at Vandy.
Advantage: Even.
Offensive linemen
▪ Kentucky right guard Eli Cox has been a breakout player for UK. The most recent recognition for the 6-4, 301-pound West Jessamine product is selection to the AP’s midseason All-America Team. It has been an impressive showing for a player who was not a lavishly hyped recruit. “He plays extremely hard, gets better with every opportunity and competes, like some other over-achievers we’ve had here over the years,” Stoops said.
▪ Mississippi State left tackle Charles Cross was named SEC Offensive Lineman of the Week for his play at Vanderbilt. The 6-5, 310-pound redshirt sophomore had an 83.2 run grade and a 78.1 pass-protection grade against the Commodores without giving up a sack nor committing a penalty.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Defensive linemen
▪ Kentucky end Josh Paschal (31 tackles, team-high 8.5 tackles for loss, six QB hurries) will deserve All-America consideration if he finishes out the season at the level he has played so far. The 6-3, 275-pound senior from Prince Georges County, Md., returned an interception 76 yards to set up a UK TD in last season’s win over MSU. A big factor in the remainder of the Kentucky season will be how the replacements for injured starters Marquan McCall (nose guard) and Octavious Oxendine (tackle) perform.
▪ Mississippi State tackle Jaden Crumedy (13 tackles, two TFL, one sack, team-high six QB hurries) and end Randy Charlton (20 tackles, 3.5 TFL, three sacks, four hurries), the latter a transfer from Central Florida, can be disruptive.
Advantage: Mississippi State.
Linebackers
▪ Kentucky senior OLB/rush end Jordan Wright (20 tackles, three TFL, one sack, five pass breakups) returned a Mississippi State interception 8 yards for a TD to seal last season’s UK victory. WLB DeAndre Square (team-high 49 tackles, 7.5 TFL, three sacks, three hurries) and MLB Jacquez Jones (46 tackles, four pass breakups, three hurries, two TFL, one interception), both seniors, will be trying to bounce back after rough goes at Georgia.
▪ Mississippi State MLB Nathaniel Watson had a monster game in the Bulldogs’ 49-9 loss to Alabama on Oct. 16. The 6-2, 240-pound redshirt junior had nine tackles by halftime and 16 for the game. SLB Tyrus Wheat (22 tackles, team-high four TFL, three sacks, one forced fumble, one interception) had a sack last week vs. Vandy.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Defensive backs
▪ UK senior free safety Yusuf Corker (40 tackles, three TFL, team-high seven pass breakups) had four tackles, a TFL and a breakup against Georgia. Against the Air Raid, it will be paramount that cornerbacks Carrington Valentine (39 tackles, one sack, two breakups) and Cedrick Dort (11 tackles) both cover and tackle well.
▪ Though only a sophomore, Mississippi State CB Emmanuel Forbes (30 tackles, 3.5 TFL, three interceptions) already has eight career picks. Forbes had two pass breakups and a QB hurry vs. UK last season. Nickelback Fred Peters (42 tackles, two interceptions) had six tackles and both forced and recovered a fumble vs. Kentucky in 2020.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Special teams
▪ Kentucky place-kicker Matt Ruffolo is 4-of-6 on field-goal attempts with a long of 45 yards. However, Kentucky has had four place-kicks blocked this season, an issue Mark Stoops has blamed on protection failures. Since replacing the injured Wilson Berry, punter Colin Goodfellow is leading the SEC, averaging 46.7 yards a kick.
▪ Mississipppi State place-kicker Brandon Ruiz is 4-of-5 this season on field goals with a long of 44 yards. He has made 128 straight PATs. MSU has used two punters, redshirt senior Tucker Day (40.3 yards a kick) and redshirt sophomore Archer Trafford (41.7, 7-of-16 kicks stopped inside the 20).
Advantage: Mississippi State.
Prediction
Kentucky 27, Mississippi State 23.
This story was originally published October 28, 2021 at 7:24 AM.
