How Kentucky and Vanderbilt match up — with a game prediction
How the Kentucky Wildcats (6-3, 4-3 SEC) and the Vanderbilt Commodores (2-7, 0-5 SEC) match up at each position — with a game prediction:
Quarterbacks
▪ Kentucky’s Will Levis threw for a career-high 371 yards in UK’s wild 45-42 shootout loss to Tennessee last week. The 6-foot-3, 232-pound Penn State transfer completed 31 of 49 passes and fired three touchdown passes. Levis also threw an interception, his 10th this season, that UT’s Alontae Taylor returned 56 yards for a touchdown. Interceptions are a concern this week because a ball-hawking Vanderbilt secondary “makes its living” off of picks.
▪ After pocket-passer Ken Seals was sidelined by a finger injury, sophomore Mike Wright has added a QB-run dimension to the Vanderbilt offense. A 6-4, 190-pound sophomore, Wright ran for 152 yards on 14 carries in Vandy’s 37-28 loss to Missouri two weeks ago (the Commodores were off last week). Wright also completed 14 of 28 passes and threw for three TDs vs. Mizzou. UK Coach Mark Stoops said Monday that the Wildcats are preparing as if they will see both Vanderbilt’s throwing and running quarterbacks Saturday night.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Running backs
▪ Kentucky star Christopher Rodriguez bounced back from two subpar performances with a stout showing vs. Tennessee. The 5-11, 224-pound product of McDonough, Ga., ran for 109 yards on 22 carries, often creating positive yardage when none appeared available. “He really made some tough runs,” Stoops says. In UK’s previous two games with Vanderbilt, Rodriguez has run for a combined 278 yards and four touchdowns.
▪ At 5-9, 203 pounds, Vanderbilt sophomore Rocko Griffin is short but not small. The Rincon, Ga., product has run for 296 yards this season and two TDs while averaging a pedestrian 3.3 yards a carry. Last season, in UK’s 38-35 win over Vandy in Lexington, Griffin ran six times for 15 yards.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Wide receivers
▪ Kentucky slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson is putting together a monster season. The former Western Hills High School star, a transfer from Nebraska, leads the SEC in receptions (71) and is second in receiving yards (811). Robinson’s backup, true freshman Chauncey Magwood, had his first college catch, for 17 yards, last week against Tennessee. A former high school quarterback, Magwood also completed a 15-yard pass on a trick play vs. UT.
▪ Vanderbilt returns two wideouts (and three players overall) who caught touchdown passes vs. Kentucky in 2020. Super-senior Chris Pierce (team-high 37 catches, 427 yards, one TD this season) hauled in a 34-yard scoring toss vs. UK last year. Senior Cam Johnson (27, 253, four in 2021) caught a 7-yard TD with 30 seconds left in last season’s game. Sophomore Will Sheppard (36, 466, three) has been Vandy’s breakout receiver this season. Junior Devin Boddie (28, 259, one) is also capable.
Advantage: Even.
Tight ends
▪ Kentucky sophomore Izayah Cummings (11 receptions, 155 yards, two TDs this season) came up huge vs. UT. The Male High School product caught four passes for 75 yards, including a 24-yard TD catch and a 28-yard reception on a fourth-and-24 play. Super senior Justin Rigg (14, 133 yards, two) caught a 3-yard TD pass last week; he had a 15-yard scoring catch vs. Vanderbilt last year.
▪ Vandy’s Ben Bresnahan (six catches, 62 yards) is the third Commodore who caught a TD pass vs. UK in 2020. He scored on a 2-yard catch from Mike Wright. It was part of a four-catch, 48-yards performance vs. the Cats for Bresnahan.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Offensive linemen
▪ UK has apparently lost starting right guard Eli Cox — who garnered midseason All-America recognition — for the season due to injury. In his absence, look for former Belfry standout Austin Dotson to move into the starting lineup.
▪ In the loss to Missouri, Vanderbilt had success running behind right tackle Bradley Ashmore, a 6-6, 290-pound sophomore, and right guard Delfin Xavier Castillo, a 6-5, 330-pound freshman. The Commodores have struggled in pass protection, though, having surrendered 11 combined sacks in their past four games.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Defensive linemen
▪ Kentucky senior tackle Abule Abadi-Fitzgerald had the most impactful game of his college career with two sacks and forced a fumble vs. Tennessee. It will be interesting to see if rumblings prove true that starting nose guard Marquan McCall, sidelined since suffering an ankle injury early in the Florida game, may return this week.
▪ Vanderbilt end Nate Clifton has made 32 tackles, twice hurried the quarterback and broken up a pass. Tackle Daevion Davis has 25 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, a whopping six pass breakups and two QB hurries. Davis had three tackles vs. UK last season.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Linebackers
▪ Kentucky OLB/rush end J.J. Weaver had 2.5 sacks vs. Tennessee. For the season, the ex-Moore High School star is now sixth in the SEC in tackles for loss (eight) and eigth in sacks (six). It would be a boon for UK if OLB/rush end Jordan Wright (20 tackles, three TFL, five pass breakups) could return this week after missing the Tennessee game due to injury.
▪ Vandy’s leading tacklers are LBs Anfernee Orji and Ethan Barr. A 6-2, 230-pound junior, Orji has team-highs with 71 tackles and 8.5 TFL. Last year against UK, the Rockwall, Texas, product made seven tackles and forced a fumble. Barr, a 6-3, 244-pound sophomore, has made 64 stops, broken up three passes and intercepted two.
Advantage: Even.
Defensive backs
▪ The Kentucky secondary has been under siege after allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete a combined 65 of 79 passes for 910 yards and eight TDs with no picks over the past three games. Stoops said UK’s cornerbacks played better vs. UT than they had in the 31-17 loss at Mississippi State two weeks ago but “there were some missed tackles at the safety (position).” Backup nickelback Vito Tisdale was UK’s leading tackler vs. Tennessee with six stops.
▪ Vanderbilt has intercepted a robust 11 passes this season. The Commodores have made at least one interception in six straight games and have had two picks in four of those six contests. Safety Dashaun Jerkins leads the way with three interceptions; fellow safety Max Worship and cornerback Jaylen Mahoney each have two. When teams don’t throw picks, the Commodores are giving up 278.6 passing yards a game, worst in the SEC.
Advantage: Vanderbilt.
Special teams
▪ Kentucky place-kicker Matt Ruffolo missed from 50 yards vs. Tennessee in the second quarter last week, then did not get another chance. On the season, Ruffolo is 5-of-8 on field goals with a long make of 45. Punter Colin Goodfellow had the night off vs. UT, as the Cats never punted. The walk-on is averaging 47.5 yards a punt, best in the SEC.
▪ Vandy place-kicker Joseph Bulovas (10-of-15 field goals) has had a big impact on the Commodores’ season, having made the game-winning field goal in both of Vanderbilt’s wins. Punter Harrison Smith is averaging 43.2 yards a punt and has stopped 13 of 59 kicks inside the foe’s 20-yard line.
Advantage: Even.
Prediction
Kentucky 34, Vanderbilt 26.
This story was originally published November 11, 2021 at 7:56 AM.
