How No. 21 Kentucky and North Carolina match up — with a game prediction
How the No. 21 Kentucky Wildcats (7-2, 0-0 SEC) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (8-2, 1-0 ACC) match up at each position for Saturday’s CBS Sports Classic at the T-Mobile Arena (capacity: 18,000) in Las Vegas — with a game prediction:
Small forward
▪ Kentucky’s Kellan Grady (9.1 ppg, 44.8% FGs, 40% treys) had a corner three dip down into the basket and rim out with 1:20 left that was a crucial play in UK’s unexpected 66-62 loss at Notre Dame last week. Through Grady shot only 2-of-7 on three-pointers while scoring eight points vs. Notre Dame, he was the only UK player to make a trey (2-of-19) in South Bend. The 6-foot-5, 205-pound graduate transfer from Davidson has faced North Carolina before. In 2017-18, as a freshman, Grady hit four of seven three pointers and scored 18 points for Davidson in an 85-75 loss to UNC.
▪ At his best, North Carolina’s Leaky Black (5 ppg, 5 rpg, 2.1 apg, 55.2% FGs) is a “Swiss Army knife” type of player who makes contributions across many facets of a game. A 6-8, 200-pound senior from Concord, N.C., Black is considered UNC’s defensive stopper. It will be interesting to see which Kentucky player he is assigned to guard. In Carolina’s 75-63 win over UK in last season’s CBS Sports Classic, Black had six points and six rebounds but made only one of seven field-goal tries.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Power forward
▪ UK’s Keion Brooks (11.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg) was a bright spot in the loss at Notre Dame. Playing in his home state, the 6-7, 210-pound junior from Fort Wayne, Ind., hit five of 10 field-goal tries and had 12 points, seven rebounds, a block and a steal. It was a positive showing for Brooks, who had shot a combined 4-of-13 in Kentucky’s prior two games.
▪ At 6-11, 235-pounds, North Carolina’s Dawson Garcia (12.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 47.8% treys) gives the Tar Heels a “stretch four” with the length of a center. Garcia torched UNC last year while playing his freshman season for Marquette. The Prior Lake, Minn., product had 24 points, 11 rebounds and two assists as the Golden Eagles upset UNC 83-70 in Chapel Hill last Feb. 24.
Advantage: North Carolina.
Center
▪ Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe (16.3 ppg, 14.4 rpg, 67.8% FGs) continues to lead NCAA Division I in rebounding and is tied for second in double-doubles with seven. The 6-9, 255-pound product of the Democratic Republic of Congo was held under 10 rebounds last week at Notre Dame (seven) for the first time as a Wildcat. The transfer from West Virginia hit 11 of 14 shots and scored 25 points to lead UK in South Bend, however.
▪ North Carolina’s Armando Bacot (14.3 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 1.7 blocks, 61.9% FGs) had 14 points, eight boards and two blocks vs. UK in last season’s UNC win. If the game is close late, the 6-10, 240-pound junior is a player Kentucky would want on the foul line. Bacot is making only 56.1 percent of his free throws (23 of 41) in 2021-22.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Shooting guard
▪ Kentucky freshman TyTy Washington (13.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 3.3 apg) made three of seven shots and had six points with five assists in the loss at Notre Dame. In UK’s two games vs. power-conference foes — losses to Duke and Notre Dame — Washington has hit 28.8 percent of his shots (six of 21). Against Kentucky’s seven non-power-conference foes, the 6-3, 197-pound product of Phoenix, Ariz., has shot 50.6 percent (44-of-87).
▪ North Carolina’s R.J. Davis (13.1 ppg, 4 rpg, 3.7 apg, 45.2% treys) is one of two point guards that the Tar Heels start. The 6-foot, 175-pound sophomore from White Plains, N.Y., made only one of six shots, a trey, for three points in UNC’s win over UK last season.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Point guard
▪ Kentucky’s Sahvir Wheeler (9.9 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 7.7 apg) had a rough go last week at Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish sagged off the 5-9, 180-pound Wheeler, inviting him to shoot jumpers and denying him chances to create in the lane. As a result, Wheeler failed to hit a field goal (0-of-5, 0-of-2 on treys) and finished with only three points and two assists. If North Carolina tries a similar defensive strategy vs. the Georgia transfer, UK and Wheeler must find a better counter plan.
▪ North Carolina’s Caleb Love (team-high 16.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.9 apg, team high 1.6 steals, 42.5% treys) has taken a big step upward as a sophomore after an uneven freshman season in 2020-21. The 6-4, 195-pound product of St. Louis had 11 points and six assists vs. UK last season, though he made only four of 14 shots, zero of 5 three-pointers, vs. the Cats.
Advantage: North Carolina.
Bench
▪ Kentucky super-senior guard Davion Mintz (7.5 ppg, 4 rpg) had one of his best games last season vs. North Carolina — his home-state school. The 6-3, 195-pound Charlotte product had 17 points, eight rebounds and two assists vs. UNC. In 2021-22, Mintz is in a shooting funk, making only 36.8% on FGs, 30.4% on treys. ... Junior forward Jacob Toppin (3.6 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 44.4% FGs) made one of six field-goal tries vs. UNC last season en route to four points. ... The rate of development of freshmen forwards Daimion Collins (5.2 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.4 blocks, 66.7% FGs) and Bryce Hopkins (3.1 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 40.7% FGs) could determine the ultimate arc of the Kentucky season.
▪ A graduate transfer from Oklahoma, North Carolina sixth man Brady Manek (13 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 50% FGs, 36% treys) gives UNC another big who can stretch the floor. The 6-9, 230-pound super-senior from Harrah, Okla., scored 1,459 career points in his four seasons playing for the Sooners ... Sharp-shooter Kerwin Walton started 20 games last season, hit 42% of his three-point tries and averaged 8.2 ppg. This season, the 6-5, 210-pound product of Hopkins, Minn., has seen his role reduced and his production (4 ppg, 34.5% treys) has reflected that.
Advantage: North Carolina.
Intangibles and history
▪ Historically, North Carolina has been a thorn in the paw of the Wildcats. UNC leads the all-time series with Kentucky 25-16 and is 3-1 vs. the Cats in NCAA Tournament meetings.
▪ UK has, however, fared better against Carolina in the John Calipari coaching era, going 6-4 vs. the Tar Heels, 1-1 in the NCAA tourney.
▪ This will be the first Kentucky-North Carolina contest for new Tar Heels head man Hubert Davis, the former Tar Heels and NBA shooting guard, ESPN college hoops analyst and Roy Williams assistant.
▪ UK enters the game on a six-game losing skid vs. ACC opponents, having fallen to Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, North Carolina and Louisville in 2020-21 and to Duke and Notre Dame this season.
▪ In CBS Sports Classic history (which began in 2014-15), Kentucky is 2-1 vs. North Carolina. Those are the only two defeats the Tar Heels have absorbed in the annual event.
All-time CBS Sports Classic records are: North Carolina 5-2, Ohio State 4-3, Kentucky 3-4, UCLA 2-5. (Coronavirus protocols knocked Ohio State and UCLA out of this season’s event).
Advantage: Even.
Prediction
Kentucky 84, North Carolina 81.
This story was originally published December 17, 2021 at 6:35 PM.
