How No. 13 Kentucky and No. 16 UCLA match up — with a game prediction
How the No. 13 Kentucky Wildcats (7-2) and the No. 16 UCLA Bruins (9-2) match up at each position for Saturday’s men’s college basketball game in the CBS Sports Classic at Madison Square Garden — with a game prediction:
Small forward
▪ Kentucky’s Antonio Reeves (13.9 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 43.3% FGs, 48.2% treys, 77.8% FTs) has scored in double figures in eight of nine games this season, including six in a row. The 6-foot-5, 205-pound senior from Chicago hit three of four three-pointers in UK’s 73-69 victory over Michigan in London, England, on Dec. 4. That was a big improvement against a high-level opponent for the Illinois State transfer — who went a combined 3-of-10 on treys in losses to Michigan State and Gonzaga.
▪ UCLA’s Jaylen Clark (15.5 ppg, 6.1 rpg, team-high 25 steals, 62.2% FGs, 41.7% treys, 67.6% FTs) has been the breakout player for the Bruins in 2022-23. A 6-5, 205-pound junior from Riverside, Calif., Clark has raised his scoring average from last season (6.7) to this (15.5) by almost nine points. In UCLA’s 87-60 road rout of No. 20 Maryland on Wednesday night, Clark went for 19 points, six rebounds, three assists and four steals and made seven of 11 shots.
Advantage: UCLA.
Power forward
▪ UK’s Jacob Toppin (11.9 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 42% FGs, 16.7% treys, 64.5% FTs) has not had an easy transition as he tries to go from “energy guy off the bench” in his first two Kentucky seasons to one of the Wildcats’ primary players in 2022-23. The 6-9, 205-pound senior from Brooklyn, N.Y., has taken more shots (100) than anyone on the UK team but has seen his field-goal percentage fall from 55.6 last season to 42% this year.
▪ In four years at UCLA, Jaime Jaquez (team-high 17.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.8 steals, 56.3% FGs, 25% treys, 79.3% FTs) has methodically worked his way from role player to All-America candidate. The 6-7, 225-pound senior from Camarillo, Calif., has scored in double figures in every game this year. He has had at least 20 points three times, including back-to-back, 27-point games in wins over Bellarmine (Nov. 27) and Stanford (Dec. 1).
Advantage: UCLA.
Center
▪ Kentucky star Oscar Tshiebwe (team highs of 16.1 ppg and 13.3 rpg. Averaging 1.6 steals and 1.6 blocks. Making 59% FGs, 78.9% FTs) played his best game of the season to date last Saturday in UK’s 69-59 win over Yale. The 6-9, 260-pound senior from the Democratic Republic of the Congo scored 28 points, claimed 12 rebounds and had two assists, two steals and two blocks. After Yale took a 35-33 lead early in the second half, Tshiebwe scored UK’s next 12 points to lift the Cats out of a tense situation. The reigning national player of the year, Tshiebwe has had a points-rebounds double-double in 33 of the 41 games in which he has worn the UK uniform.
▪ UCLA’s Adem Bona (7.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg, team-high 10 blocks, 68.9% FGs, 72.7% FTs) has battled foul trouble. The 6-10, 235-pound freshman has committed 30 fouls, the most on the UCLA team. An Ebonyi, Nigeria, native, Bona had recruiting interest from Kentucky. He was ranked the No. 23 prospect in the Rivals 150 for 2022 after playing high school hoops at Prolific Prep in Napa, Calif.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Shooting guard
▪ Kentucky freshman Cason Wallace (10.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 4.3 apg, 2.4 steals) has scored in double figures only once in the past four games. However, the 6-4, 193-pound Dallas product has been a remarkably consistent scorer against high-level foes in 2022. In UK’s losses to Michigan State and Gonzaga and its win over Michigan, Wallace scored 14 points in each.
▪ UCLA freshman Amari Bailey (10.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.7 apg, 49.5% FGs, 33.3% treys) has struggled of late. After scoring in double figures in four straight contests, the 6-5, 185-pound Chicago product has made only four of 16 field-goal tries in the Bruins’ past two games while scoring four points in each. If Saturday’s game is close, Bailey is a guy you want to send to the foul line. He is making only 47.1% (8-of-17) of his free throws. Bailey was the No. 13-rated prospect in the 2022 Rivals 150, five spots behind UK’s Cason Wallace.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Point guard
▪ Kentucky’s Sahvir Wheeler (9 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 6.5 apg) comes off a rugged performance in the victory over Yale. The 5-9, 180-pound senior from Houston took 14 shots vs. the Bulldogs, making only five, and had only one assist. Wheeler’s shooting percentages are down from last season on field goals (from 44.1 to 38.8) and free throws (78 to 59.1) but slightly up on three-pointers (30.8 to 31.8).
▪ UCLA’s Tyger Campbell (12.8 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 4.5 apg) has also seen a substantial drop from 2021-22 to 2022-23 in his shooting accuracy. The 5-11, 180-pound senior from Cedar Rapids, Iowa, made 44.4% on field-goal tries and 41 percent on three-pointers last year; this season, Campbell is making only 39.1% on field goals, 33.3% on treys. In UCLA’s three most recent games, Campbell is a combined 10-of-30 on field-goal attempts, 3-of-11 on threes.
Advantage: Even.
Bench
▪ Kentucky’s CJ Fredrick (8.3 ppg, 40.7% FGs, 35.7% treys) has struggled this season against high-level competition. In UK’s games with Michigan State, Gonzaga and Michigan, Fredrick has made a combined four of 19 shots, three of 15 treys. It would do Fredrick — and UK — a world of good if he could get untracked vs. UCLA. ... Freshman forward Chris Livingston (5.1 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 45.5% FGs, 36.4% treys, 92.3% FTs) had seven points in 14 minutes vs. Yale. ... Freshman big man Ugonna Onyenso (4.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, team-high 15 blocks, 62.5% FGs) has been a positive surprise.
▪ UCLA’s David Singleton (10.6 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 51.3% FGs, 50% treys, 90% FTs) is coming off a terrific game vs. Maryland. The 6-4, 210-pound super-senior scored 18 points in 24 minutes and hit seven of 10 shots and four of five treys. ... Freshman guard Dylan Andrews (3.8 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 17 assists vs. three turnovers) has struggled with his outside shot, making only two of 13 three-pointers. ... Redshirt senior Kenneth Nwuba (2 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 66.7% FGs) is a 6-10, 255-pound wide body who gives the Bruins five extra fouls to deploy against Oscar Tshiebwe.
Advantage: Even.
Intangibles and history
▪ Kentucky leads the all-time series with UCLA 8-7, but the Bruins have won three of the past four meetings.
▪ As Kentucky head coach, John Calipari is 2-3 vs. UCLA.
▪ Bruins head man Mick Cronin will coach against Kentucky for the first time on Saturday. Cronin was the Cincinnati head coach when UK beat the Bearcats 64-51 in the 2015 NCAA Tournament round of 32. However, Cronin missed the game due to a medical condition and UC assistant Larry Davis coached the Bearcats.
▪ UCLA and Kentucky have split two games in the CBS Sports Classic. The No. 1 Wildcats obliterated the Bruins 83-44 in 2014-15 in Chicago. UCLA upset No. 7 Kentucky 83-75 in 2017-18 in New Orleans.
▪ All time in the CBS Sports Classic, Kentucky is 4-4, while UCLA is 2-5 (the teams have not played the same number of games in the event because UCLA and Ohio State were not able to play in last season’s doubleheader due to coronavirus containment measures, but North Carolina and UK went ahead and faced each other).
Advantage: Even.
Prediction
Kentucky 77, UCLA 75.
This story was originally published December 15, 2022 at 1:41 PM.
