For UK football fans, the hopes and fears about Kentucky’s game at Florida
What Kentucky football backers should hope for and what they need to fear as the Wildcats (3-3, 1-3 SEC) prepare to play SEC rival Florida (3-3, 1-2 SEC):
Kickoff is at 7:45 EDT Saturday, Oct. 19, at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (capacity 88,548) on the campus of the University of Florida in Gainesville.
The game will be telecast by the SEC Network.
Hopes
▪ Kentucky’s penchant for playing well in SEC road games continues.
As has been much discussed since the Wildcats turned in another disappointing performance at Kroger Field last week in a 20-13 loss to Vanderbilt, UK is 2-10 in its last 12 SEC home games.
Conversely, the Wildcats have gone 6-6 in their 12 most recent Southeastern Conference road contests.
This season, Kentucky is 0-3 in SEC homes games and 1-0 in league road contests, with the away victory coming at then-No. 6 Mississippi.
After losing 19 straight games in Gainesville from 1981 through 2016, UK has won in two of its past three appearances at “The Swamp.”
▪ A veteran Kentucky defense makes life miserable for DJ Lagway, the true freshman quarterback expected to make his first start against a Southeastern Conference opponent on Saturday.
In spot duty behind the now-injured Graham Mertz, Lagway has been so-so against FBS foes, completing 29 of 47 passes for 309 yards with two TDs and four interceptions.
A UK defense that stands third in the FBS in total defense (allowing only 251.5 yards a game) would seem well-equipped to confound a true frosh QB.
▪ Defying all odds, the Kentucky offense manages to score some touchdowns.
Through four SEC games, UK has scored only four total TDs.
Consider: Had the Wildcats just managed to average three touchdowns a game in SEC play, the Cats would stand 3-1 in the league and likely be viewed as a College Football Playoff contender.
Instead, the UK offense has suffered from a severe lack of explosive plays and has consistently struggled to protect quarterback Brock Vandagriff.
Against a Florida defense that ranks only 87th in the FBS in total defense (allowing 381.7 yards a game), dare Kentucky fans dream of seeing their team’s sputtering offense break out?
Fears
▪ Florida will have multiple reasons to be keenly motivated to win Saturday’s game.
After the Gators beat Kentucky 31 times in a row from 1987 through 2017, the Wildcats have now won three straight and four out of the past six in the series.
Florida head man Billy Napier (14-17 in his third season at UF) is widely viewed as being on the coaching “hot seat.” While a win over UK will not likely save Napier’s job, another loss to the Wildcats might not be survivable for the Gators coach.
Finally, after Kentucky, Florida’s remaining schedule is brutal — vs. No. 5 Georgia, at No. 1 Texas, vs. No. 8 LSU, vs. No. 18 Ole Miss and at archrival Florida State.
Given what the Gators have ahead, beating UK would seem a must to have any chance to salvage a respectable season.
▪ The Florida defense may not be great, but the Gators are good at the one thing that has consistently confounded Kentucky in 2024 — rushing the passer off the edge.
Defensive end Tyreak Sapp, a 6-3, 272-pound redshirt junior from Fort Lauderdale, leads Florida with 3.5 sacks and three quarterback hurries.
Strongside linebacker George Gumbs Jr., a 6-4, 249-pound junior who transferred from Northern Illinois, has added three sacks and a hurry.
Meanwhile, UK ranks No. 106 in the FBS in sacks allowed, having surrendered 16 sacks through six games.
▪ In opposition to Kentucky, Florida in recent seasons has been far better at home than away.
The Gators have won 15 of their last 21 games at “The Swamp,” but are 3-17 in their last 20 contests played anywhere other than Gainesville.
