How Kentucky men’s basketball matches up against Gonzaga — with a game prediction
How the No. 4 Kentucky Wildcats (7-1) and the No. 7 Gonzaga Bulldogs (7-1) match up at each position for Saturday’s men’s college basketball “Battle in Seattle” — with a game prediction:
Small forward
▪ Kentucky’s Jaxson Robinson (12 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 43.4% FGs, 30.8% treys, 72.7% FTs) has been a part of UK’s slumping 3-point shooting over the past three games. As the Kentucky team has gone a combined 22-for-82 on 3-pointers (26.8%) in wins over Western Kentucky and Georgia State and Tuesday’s 70-66 loss at Clemson in the SEC/ACC Challenge, Robinson has shot 5-of-20 from behind the arc in those contests. The 6-foot-6, 192-pound super-senior from Ada, Oklahoma, did have 12 points, four rebounds and a blocked shot at Clemson.
▪ While playing last season for Arkansas, Gonzaga’s Khalif Battle hung 34 points on Kentucky at Rupp Arena in the Razorbacks’ 111-102 loss. In that game, the 6-5, 185-pound Battle hit 8 of 16 shots, 1 of 4 treys and 17 of 18 free throws while also grabbing eight rebounds. The performance was the final of a torrid three-game stretch in which Battle scored 42 (Missouri), 36 (Vanderbilt) and 34 points in successive contests. Part of a three-guard lineup for Mark Few’s Zags, Battle, a super-senior, is averaging 13.5 points and 4.8 rebounds.
Advantage: Gonzaga.
Power forward
▪ Kentucky’s Andrew Carr (10 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 20 assists vs. eight turnovers, 56% FGs) had a rough go in the loss at Clemson. The 6-11, 235-pound super-senior hit only 1 of 7 shots, 1 of 3 3-pointers and 2 of 4 free throws en route to five points and five rebounds in 24 minutes. The Wake Forest transfer has scored in double figures in five of UK’s eight games.
▪ Gonzaga’s Michael Ajayi (7.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 43.6% FGs, 22.2% treys) joined the Zags via transfer after averaging 17.2 points and 9.2 rebounds last season for Pepperdine. A 6-7, 228-pound senior from Kent, Washington, Ajayi made 47.8 percent of his 3-pointers last season, so he would seem to be a better outside shooter than his Gonzaga numbers suggest. Ajayi’s only double figure scoring game of this season to date came when he tallied 15 points and claimed nine rebounds in an 89-73 win over Indiana in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in The Bahamas.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Center
▪ Kentucky super-senior Amari Williams (9.9 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 20 assists vs. 23 turnovers, team-high 15 blocks) had nine points, 11 rebounds, three blocked shots and a steal in the loss at Clemson. The 7-foot, 262-pound super-senior from Nottingham, England, also had a team-high four turnovers and has a combined 11 turnovers in UK’s past three games.
▪ Against a completely different UK roster, Gonzaga’s Graham Ike had a monster game vs. the Wildcats at Rupp Arena last season. The 6-9, 250-pound senior big man hit 10 of 17 shots and scored 25 points with five rebounds as the Zags beat the Cats 89-85. This year, Ike — who began his college career playing for Wyoming — has scored in double figures in six of eight games and leads the Bulldogs in scoring (13.8 ppg) and rebounding (6.5 rpg).
Advantage: Gonzaga.
Shooting guard
▪ A transfer from Oklahoma, Kentucky junior Otega Oweh (16 ppg, 4 rpg, team-high 12 steals, 54.2% FGs, 37.5% treys, 78.4% FTs) has emerged as UK’s best player through eight games. The 6-4, 215-pound product of Newark, New Jersey, had 17 points and seven rebounds in the loss at Clemson even though he did not shoot well — 5 of 13, 1 of 5 on 3-point tries. Oweh has scored in double figures in every game this season.
▪ Once a Kentucky recruiting signee in the class of 2021, Gonzaga’s Nolan Hickman (11.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 12 assists vs. 10 turnovers, 50.7% FGs, 46.2% treys) has become a “steady Eddie” in the Zags backcourt. Last year, playing at Rupp Arena for the first time, Hickman dropped 17 points and five rebounds on the team for which he ultimately chose not to play. This year, the 6-2, 190-pound senior from Seattle has scored in double figures in five of eight games.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Point guard
▪ In the loss at Clemson, Kentucky super-senior Lamont Butler had 16 points and five assists and was one of the few Wildcats who shot the ball well at Littlejohn Coliseum. The 6-2, 208-pound product of Moreno Valley, California, made 6 of 9 shots and 2 of 3 treys. However, Butler was limited to 19 minutes of playing time by foul trouble and an ankle injury. On the season, Butler is averaging 12.9 points, 3.1 rebounds and has 31 assists vs. 10 turnovers. He is tied with Otega Oweh for the Kentucky team lead in steals with 12.
▪ Even as Gonzaga beat Kentucky last season, the Zags’ Ryan Nembhard had a rough go as a shooter at Rupp Arena. The 6-foot, 180-pound product of Aurora, Ontario, Canada, made only 1 of 7 shots, missed all three of his 3-point shot attempts and finished with only six points. What Nembhard did well vs. UK was distribute the ball, doling out nine assists. That has carried over to 2024-25, as Nembhard will enter Saturday night’s contest on a streak of three straight games in which he has dished out 12, 13 and 14 assists, respectively.
Advantage: Even.
Bench
▪ Kentucky’s reserves — a team strength through the first seven games — did not have a good night at Clemson. Super-senior wing Koby Brea (12.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 59% FGs, 60.5% treys) scored only three points and took only three shots, making one 3-pointer. ... Super-senior guard Kerr Kriisa (4 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 30 assists vs. eight turnovers; 25% FGs, 24.2% treys) missed all four of his shots and failed to score in 21 minutes. ... Sophomore center Brandon Garrison (5.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 18 assists vs. seven turnovers; 48.6% FGs) had two points, two rebounds and two turnovers in 12 minutes. ... Senior forward Ansley Almonor (6.6 pph, 2 rpg, 51.4% FGs, 39.1% treys) went 1-of-4 from the floor, missed his only two 3-point attempts and finished with two points, no rebounds and two steals in 13 minutes. ... To beat Gonzaga, UK will probably need a big bench “bounce-back” game.
▪ Without making a start, Gonzaga sophomore big man Braden Huff is tied for second on the Bulldogs in scoring (13.5 ppg) and has been in double figures in every game but one this season. The 6-10, 250-pound Huff made a major contribution to the Zags’ win over UK last season scoring 12 points in 15 minutes. ... Ben Gregg had 24 points and eight rebounds in the Bulldogs’ most recent game, a 90-65 pasting of Davidson in the Battle 4 Atlantis. A 6-10, 230-pound senior, Gregg is averaging 9.5 ppg and 5.1 rpg while making 55.6 percent of his shots this season. Gregg, too, played well vs. Kentucky a season ago, going for 14 points, five rebounds, two steals and two blocks at Rupp Arena. ... Dusty Stromer, a 6-6, 200-pound sophomore, has hit 10 of 20 3-pointers this season and is averaging 6.3 ppg.
Advantage: Gonzaga.
Trends and history
▪ Gonzaga leads the all-time series with Kentucky 2-1. The Bulldogs have won the past two meetings with the Wildcats, one in Spokane, Washington, and one in Lexington.
▪ New Kentucky coach Mark Pope went 1-9 vs. Gonzaga while coaching at Utah Valley (0-1 vs. the Zags) and BYU (1-8).
▪ Gonzaga head man Mark Few is 2-1 vs. UK.
▪ With the Wildcats and Bulldogs set to play in Seattle at Climate Pledge Arena, UK is 1-0 this season on neutral courts and 1-1 in games played outside Lexington.
Conversely, Gonzaga is 3-1 this season on neutral courts and is 4-1 in games played outside its home city of Spokane.
▪ Kentucky is 1-0 this season against teams ranked in the AP Top 25; Gonzaga is 2-0 in such games.
Advantage: Gonzaga.
Prediction
Gonzaga 94, Kentucky 87.
This story was originally published December 5, 2024 at 11:55 AM.
