SEC football preview: Are 8 Southeastern Conference coaches really on hot seat?
The 2025 season will feature a restoration for “the royal family” of Southeastern Conference football.
After two seasons as a Texas reserve, redshirt sophomore quarterback Arch Manning will be the starter for the No. 1 Longhorns.
The grandson of Archie Manning and the nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning will, of course, be the fourth member of his family to start at quarterback in the SEC.
A 6-foot-4, 219-pound redshirt sophomore, Arch Manning is the son of Cooper Manning — the oldest of Archie and Olivia Manning’s three boys — and his wife, Ellen Heidingsfelder.
For context, this is how the older Manning QBs fared in their first full seasons as college starters:
Archie Manning: As a Mississippi Rebels sophomore in 1968, Archie directed Ole Miss to a 7-3-1 record that ended with a 34-17 victory against Virginia Tech in the Liberty Bowl.
In a very different era in college football, Archie completed 48.1% of his passes in 1968 for 1,510 yards with eight touchdown throws and 17 interceptions. He also ran for 208 yards and five TDs.
Peyton Manning: Due to injuries, Peyton started the final eight games of his true freshman season for Tennessee in 1994, going 7-1 in those contests.
However, his first full season as the Volunteers’ starting quarterback came the following year as a sophomore. Peyton led the Vols to an 11-1 mark that finished with a 20-14 victory against Ohio State in the Citrus Bowl.
In 1995, Peyton completed 64.2% of his throws for 2,954 yards with 20 TDs and 12 picks.
Eli Manning: Assuming the Ole Miss starting job as a sophomore in 2001, Eli guided the Rebels to a 7-4 record.
He completed 63.5% of his passes for 31 touchdowns with only nine interceptions.
Last year as a Texas redshirt freshman, Arch Manning started twice, against Lousiana Monroe and Mississippi State, in place of an injured Quinn Ewers.
Manning completed a combined 41 of 60 passes in those two starts for 583 yards with four touchdown throws and two interceptions.
As the QB of the team that will begin the season ranked No. 1, Arch Manning would seem to have a legitimate shot at a college football achievement no member of his family has yet attained: winning the national championship.
The scalding hot seats
The 2024 SEC football season yielded an unusual result: Not one league head coach was fired or left his position. What that means is there is a lot of acumulated heat that has built beneath some coaching seats for 2025.
Pat Forde of SI.com listed eight SEC coaches — half the league — as entering this coming season with at least some uncertainty about their hold on their jobs.
I would argue there are only four Southeastern Conference head men who should enter 2025 feeling they are for sure coaching for their jobs:
Hugh Freeze, Auburn: At a school where coaching instability is the default setting, Freeze is tempting fate by entering his third season off of back-to-back losing years (6-7 and 5-7, respectively). It’s hard to see any path to survival for Freeze that does not involve the Tigers getting on the winning side of the ledger in 2025.
Billy Napier, Florida: At a school whose fans have championship standards, Napier has gone a pedestrian 19-19 with two losing years so far in three seasons. Last year, however, the Gators closed strong with consecutive victories against No. 21 LSU, No. 9 Ole Miss, archrival Florida State and Tulane in the Gasparilla Bowl to finish 8-5.
Whether the momentum from last season’s finish carries over to the beginning of 2025 seems likely to determine Napier’s fate.
Sam Pittman, Arkansas: Even though Pittman has had three winning seasons out of five, the boss Hog is 30-31 overall and Razorbacks backers are more ambitious than that.
Brent Venables, Oklahoma: At a school where football expectations are near the Alabama level, Venables has gone 6-7, 10-3 and 6-7 in his first three seasons. A brutal schedule that includes seven teams ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 will not make it easy for Venables to earn a fifth year.
The marginally warm seats
Kalen DeBoer, Alabama: After going 9-4 and missing the initial 12-team College Football Playoff in his first season, DeBoer would be well served to get the Crimson Tide to the playoff in 2025 lest he face the wrath of “Saban worshipers.”
Brian Kelly, LSU: The Tigers have gone 29-11, won three bowl games and reached an SEC championship game in Kelly’s first three seasons as LSU coach. That would get you a statue at many schools, but restive LSU backers expect championships.
Jeff Lebby, Mississippi State: MSU went a horrid 2-10 in Lebby’s first season leading the Bulldogs last year. Simply put, Lebby needs to put a far better product on the field in 2025. Regardless, it’s hard to see how MSU could justify firing a second head coach (Zach Arnett was the first) in the initial three years of the post-Mike Leach era.
Mark Stoops, Kentucky: The UK head man has produced results that did not match his fan base’s expectations in three straight seasons — most dramatically in last year’s 4-8 slog. Yet it would cost UK in excess of $35 million to oust Stoops and, by the coach’s contract, the university would have to pay the buyout in full within 60 days of termination. For an athletic department that is having to borrow money from the university proper to navigate this new revenue sharing era, paying a coaching buyout of that magnitude seems a non-starter.
Predictions
- Texas will beat Georgia in Athens on Nov. 15 and that will allow the Longhorns to finish first in the SEC regular season.
- Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs will reverse the outcome against Texas in the SEC championship game.
- Georgia, Texas, Alabama and LSU will make the College Football Playoff. So, too, will Illinois, Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State. Also in: Clemson, Iowa State, Notre Dame and Tulane.
- Texas will defeat Penn State to win the national title.
