Kentucky football vs. the naysayers: Five keys to a UK surprise in 2025
Suffice to say, the outside analysts are not gushing over the 2025 prospects for Mark Stoops and the Kentucky Wildcats.
In the SEC preseason media poll, UK football was tabbed to finish 15th out of 16 Southeastern Conference teams.
The venerable “Phil Steele’s College Football Preview” picks the Cats to finish 15th, too.
“Lindy’s Southeastern Preview” also foresees a 15th place finish in the 2025 SEC standings for the Big Blue.
Given how poorly Kentucky played in the second half of last season while limping home to a 4-8 record, 1-7 in the SEC, such scorn from the “experts” is warranted.
Among Southeastern Conference teams, only Mississippi State — which went 2-10, 0-8 in the conference last year — is being held in less preseason esteem than is UK.
From the Wildcats perspective, that might not be all bad. Over the course of his Kentucky coaching tenure, Stoops, 58, has often done his best work when he and his teams are doubted.
“Overall, I feel very, very good,” Stoops said last month of his 13th Kentucky team. “... I feel the offseason was a success, as far as we needed to get bigger, get stronger, and again, be more dialed in, if you will.”
If Stoops and troops are to defy the grim preseason analyses, the Wildcats must take a step upward in these five areas:
1. Clean up the slop. Over the past three seasons, “Undisciplined Football is Us” might as well have been the motto of the Kentucky program.
Last season, the sloppy play reached its nadir. UK finished tied for 126th out of 133 FBS programs in interceptions thrown (17), was 114th in sacks allowed (35) and 109th in turnover margin (minus-7).
In 2025, if Kentucky could cut back on the “beating itself” it might find beating other teams a little more realistic.
2. Run the dang ball. In 2018, when Kentucky won 10 games in a season for the first time since 1977, the Wildcats averaged 202 rushing yards a contest and outrushed their opponents by an average of 55.2 yards a game.
Three years later, when UK again hit the 10-win mark (only to subsequently have those victories vacated by the NCAA due to rules violations), the Cats ran for an average of 196.8 yards a game and outrushed their foes by an average of 77.6 yards a contest.
Conversely, last season UK averaged only 145.6 yards a game on the ground and the Cats were outrushed by their opponents by 16.2 yards a contest.
“We need to improve on the offensive line (over last seeason), right? And we need to run the ball like we used to,” Stoops said earlier during preseason camp.
3. At all costs, stop the run. In Kentucky’s first six games of 2024, the Cats gave up a stingy 89.3 yards a contest on the ground.
However, in UK’s final five games vs. power-conference teams last season, the Wildcats’ run defense was gashed for a whopping 263.2 yards a game.
“The first six games we were what we had been the year before, in terms of stopping the run,” Kentucky defensive coordinator Brad White said at media day. “Down the stretch, the last six (games were) completely unacceptable. So that, until we go out on the field and we prove that we can get back to where we (were in stopping the run), that will always be sort of lingering. (Run defense) is a concern.”
4. Have a September to remember. Kentucky only plays three games in October, but those contests are at No. 5 Georgia, against No. 1 Texas, and vs. No. 24 Tennessee — a team UK perennially has trouble beating.
Due to the stern October slate, Kentucky’s chances at bowl eligibility in 2025 would seem to rest heavily on how the Wildcats fare in September.
UK’s first four games — vs. Mid-American Conference preseason favorite Toledo (Aug. 30), No. 21 Mississippi (Sept. 6), Eastern Michigan (Sept. 13) and at No. 13 South Carolina (Sept. 27) — will be no picnic.
Still, to have a realistic shot at making the postseason this year, it behooves the Wildcats to be no worse than 3-1 by the time September ends.
5. End the “home field disadvantage.” Dating back to the final SEC home game of 2021, Kentucky is a horrid 2-11 in its 13 most recent league contests at Kroger Field.
To state the obvious, there’s no way to succeed in any meaningful way in football at UK with that much home-field futility in Southeastern Conference games.
For 2025, all four SEC teams Kentucky will face at Kroger Field — No. 21 Ole Miss, No. 1 Texas, No. 24 Tennessee and No. 15 Florida — are ranked in the preseason AP Top 25.
Even so, UK’s chances of defying the preseason pessimists and doing something surprising in 2025 would be boosted greatly if the Wildcats could at least break even in SEC home games.
