How Kentucky matches up vs. No. 5 Florida — with a game prediction
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Florida’s bigs control rebounds and interior scoring, giving them an edge.
- Kentucky leads series and is strong at Rupp, favoring them on Senior Day.
- Prediction: Florida 93, Kentucky 89 — a narrow road win for Florida.
How Kentucky (19-11, 10-7 SEC) and Florida (24-6, 15-2 SEC) match up at each position for Saturday’s men’s basketball Senior Day contest at Rupp Arena — with a game prediction:
Small forward
• Kentucky’s Collin Chandler (10.2 points, 2.9 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 44% 3-pointers) did not have his best game in UK’s 96-85 loss at Texas A&M Tuesday night. The 6-foot-5, 205-pound sophomore from Farmington, Utah, made only 1 of 5 shots and finished with three points. In Kentucky’s 92-83 loss at Florida on Valentine’s Day, Chandler played well, scoring 18 points and going 5 of 7 on 3-pointers.
• When team success is factored in, Florida’s Thomas Haugh (17.1 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 33.8% treys) has a strong case to be named SEC Player of the Year. The 6-9, 215-pound product of New Oxford, Pennsylvania, had 17 points, eight rebounds and two assists in UF’s previous win over UK even though he only went 1 of 5 on 3-point tries. Haugh had 22 points in Florida’s 111-77 demolition of Arkansas last Saturday but sat out Tuesday’s 108-74 Gators victory over Mississippi State due to an apparent ankle injury.
Advantage: Florida
Power forward
• Kentucky sophomore Andrija Jelavic (5.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, 48.8% FGs) had five points, one rebound and an assist in 13 minutes of court time in the loss at Texas A&M. The 6-11, 225-pound sophomore from Zagreb, Croatia, had seven points, four rebounds and three turnovers in the loss at Florida. Jelavic is 4 of 15 on 3-point tries over the past five games.
• Florida junior Alex Condon (14.8 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 54% FGs) is on a late-season rampage. Over the past five games, the 6-11, 230-pound product of Perth, Western Australia, has averaged 22 points, 6.2 rebounds and 3.6 assists while shooting 62.5% on field-goal attempts. In the Gators’ prior win over UK, Condon went for a double-double, 14 points and 11 boards.
Advantage: Florida
Center
• Kentucky freshman Malachi Moreno (8.3 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.6 blocks, 58.7% FGs) played well in the loss at Florida on Valentine’s Day, going for a double-double with 11 points and 11 rebounds. The 7-foot, 250-pound product of Great Crossing High School in Georgetown scored in double figures three times in four games between Jan. 31 and Feb. 14. Subsequently, Moreno has only been above 10 points once (11 vs. Vanderbilt on Feb. 28) in the past five games.
• Florida junior Rueben Chinyelu (11.3 points, 58.6% FGs) leads men’s NCAA Division I basketball in total rebounds (355) and rebound average (11.8). The 6-10, 235-pound product of Enugu, Nigeria, has had 16 rebounds in each of the Gators’ past two games. In the earlier UF win over UK, Chinyelu had 10 points and 12 boards.
Advantage: Florida
Shooting guard
• Kentucky senior Otega Oweh (17.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.8 steals, 47.7% FGs) will play at Rupp Arena for the final time as a Wildcat. In the two years since transferring from Oklahoma, the 6-4, 220-pound product of Newark, New Jersey, has become the most significant UK player in the Mark Pope coaching era to date. With 1,120 points as a Cat, Oweh is 49th on the all-time UK scoring list, three points behind Randolph Morris (1,123) for 48th. Among players who have only played two seasons for Kentucky, Oweh is the third all-time leading scorer, behind Bill Spivey (1,213 career points) and Antonio Reeves (1,155). In the earlier loss at Florida, Oweh had 13 points, five rebounds, two assists and two steals but also had three turnovers and made only 4 of 14 shots.
• A John Calipari-era UK recruiting signee, Florida sophomore Boogie Fland (11.5 points, 2.6 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 43.9% FGs) will come to Lexington riding a hot streak. Over the past three games, the 6-3, 185-pound sophomore from Bronx, New York, has made 15 of 21 shots (a robust 71.4%), 4 of 8 3-pointers and has averaged 15.3 points. In the prior win over Kentucky, Fland made only 2 of 10 shots, missed all three of his 3-point tries and finished with eight points, four rebounds, two assists and three steals.
Advantage: Kentucky
Point guard
• Kentucky has had turnover issues, but it has not been because of senior lead guard Denzel Aberdeen (12.8 points, 2.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 35.3% treys). Over the past five games, the 6-5, 195-pound product of Orlando, Florida, has 24 assists vs. only two turnovers. The top backcourt backup on Florida’s 2025 NCAA title team, Aberdeen had 19 points and four assists in his return to Gainesville last month, though he made only 8 of 21 shots.
• Florida senior Xaivian Lee (11.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 27.6% treys) lit up UK for 22 points on 4 of 7 3-point shooting in the previous game. A transfer from Princeton, the 6-4, 180-pound product of Toronto, Ontario, Canada, has gone 6 of 18 from behind the arc since the win over Kentucky.
Advantage: Kentucky
Bench
• Kentucky junior power forward Mouhamed Dioubate (8.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 52.4% FGs) played his best game as a Wildcat in the loss at Texas A&M, making 8 of 9 shots and finishing with 19 points and seven rebounds. ... Freshman guard Jasper Johnson (5.5 points, 1.2 rebounds, 1.7 assists) had three points and two assists in the defeat at A&M. In the prior meeting with Florida, the 6-5, 180-pound Johnson hit 2 of 2 treys for six points. ... Junior center Brandon Garrison (4.3 points, 4 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 52.9% FGs) turned in a productive 16 minutes in the loss at Texas A&M. The 6-10, 245-pound Oklahoma City product hit 4 of 6 shots and had eight points and four rebounds. ... Sophomore forward Trent Noah (3.2 points, 2.4 rebounds, 34.7% treys) hit 2 of 5 treys and scored nine points at Texas A&M. Those were the first made 3-pointers in a game for the former Harlan County High School star since Jan. 31.
• Florida junior guard Urban Klavzar (10.2 points, 1.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 40.5% treys) had 19 points vs. UK in the initial game. The 6-1, 195-pound product of Domzale, Slovenia, has scored in double figures in nine of the past 12 games. ... Isaiah Brown (5.6 points, 2.5 rebounds, 39% treys) has made a combined 4 of 6 3-pointers over the past three games. The 6-4, 210-pound sophomore from Orlando took only two shots and was scoreless in the first game vs. UK. ... With Thomas Haugh sidelined, center Micah Handlogten (4.3 points, 6 rebounds, 65.2% FGs) got the start against Mississippi State and went for 10 points, nine rebounds and three assists. A 7-1, 260-pound product of Lake Norman, North Carolina, Handlogten had two points, five rebounds and an assist in the previous game vs. Kentucky.
Advantage: Florida
Trends and history
• Kentucky leads the all-time series with Florida 111-43. Even with this season’s previous loss, the Cats have won 11 of the past 14 meetings.
• Kentucky coach Mark Pope is 1-1 vs. Florida.
• Florida head man Todd Golden is 2-4 against Kentucky.
• Kentucky is 14-3 this season at Rupp Arena. Florida is 7-2 in true road games.
• In the Rupp Arena era, UK is 43-6 in Senior Day/Night games.
Advantage: Kentucky
Prediction
Florida 93, Kentucky 89
This story was originally published March 6, 2026 at 6:00 AM.
