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Kentucky-Davidson: What the computers say about NCAA matchup

Here are what the computers say about South Region No. 5 seed Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament first-round opponent, the No. 12 seed Davidson Wildcats:

▪ Ken Pomeroy has Davidson ranked at No. 43 overall, higher than Kansas State (No. 9 seed), Arizona State (11), Oklahoma (10), UCLA (11), Rhode Island (7), San Diego State (11) and Alabama (9), just to name a few.

At No. 43, Pomeroy ranks Davidson highest among the No. 12 seeds. New Mexico State is 55th. Murray State is 59th. South Dakota State is 75th.

Davidson ranks 18th in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to Pomeroy. He has the Wildcats averaging 1.174 points per possession. For some context, Arizona (15), Auburn (16) and Arizona State (17th) are ranked just in front of Davidson. Arkansas (19th) Iowa (20th) and Virginia (21) are ranked just behind.

Davidson is ranked 115th in adjusted defensive efficiency at 1.025 points per possession. By comparison, that would rank 12th in the SEC.

With its three wins in the SEC Tournament, Kentucky has climbed to 18th in Pomeroy’s overall rankings. UK ranks 25th in adjusted offensive efficiency (1.164 PPP) and 23rd in adjusted defensive efficiency (0.960).

Pomeroy gives Kentucky a 63 percent chance of winning on Thursday night. He pegs the score at 73-70 in favor of UK.

One other Pomeroy note on Davidson, the Wildcats get 41.9 percent of their points on three-pointers. That ranks sixth out of the 351 Division I teams.

▪ Moving on to Jeff Sagarin, his computer ranks Davidson No. 53 overall. He ranks the Wildcats’ strength of schedule at No. 92 out of the 351 Division I teams. He has Davidson at 2-4 against his top 50 teams.

Sagarin has Kentucky at No. 14 overall with the 13th toughest schedule. UK is 9-9 against his top 50 teams.

▪ Then there’s the infamous RPI. Its formula ranks Kentucky at No. 10. It has Davidson ranked 47th.

▪ ESPN’s Basketball Power Index ranks Kentucky at No. 21. It ranks Davidson at No. 33.

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