College and NFL picks: Can Kentucky keep the ball rolling at Texas A&M?
Ben and I are climbing back into the ring to take another swing at our weekly football predictions.
Last week: Ben was 5-5 overall and 4-6 against the spread. For the season, he’s now 29-21 straight up and 27-22-1 against the spread. Last week: I was 7-3 overall and 5-5 against the spread. For the season, I’m 34-16 straight up but just 21-28-1 against the spread.
This week’s games:
Georgia Tech at Louisville
Friday, 7 p.m. on ESPN
Line: Georgia Tech by 4
John: Louisville 27, Georgia Tech 21
The Cardinals are due. Overdue. Bobby Petrino’s offense showed signs of life last week against Florida State. U of L is at home. Georgia Tech is also 0-2 in the ACC. The Cards will prevail under the Friday night lights.
Against the spread pick: Louisville
Ben: Louisville 30, Georgia Tech 27
Louisville should’ve beat Florida State last weekend. If the Cards that showed up for most of that game show up Friday night, surely they can defeat the Yellow Jackets.
Against the spread pick: Louisville
No. 1 Alabama at Arkansas
Saturday, noon on ESPN
Line: Alabama by 35
John: Alabama 56, Arkansas 7
Alabama’s margins of victory: 37, 50, 55, 22 and 42. The Tide has to grow bored at some point. This won’t be that point. Arkansas’ offensive line is a weak link Nick Saban and Company will happily exploit. Over and over and over again.
Against the spread pick: Alabama
Ben: Alabama 50, Arkansas 10
A five-touchdown underdog at home in a conference game? Sounds crazy, but Alabama is just that much better than everybody else. And Arkansas remains pretty terrible. Saban welcomes Chad Morris to his version of the SEC.
Against the spread pick: Alabama
Missouri at South Carolina
Saturday, noon on SEC Network
Line: Missouri by 1.5
John: Missouri 34, South Carolina 24
As you perhaps recall, South Carolina was a consensus pick for second-best team in the SEC East. Then the Men of Muschamp lost by 24 to Georgia. Then they lost by 14 to Kentucky. Saturday, they will lose by 10 to Mizzou, which is coming off a bye.
Against the spread pick: Missouri
Ben: South Carolina 34, Missouri 28
The Gamecocks got manhandled for much of the night at Kroger Field last weekend, and they got embarrassed at home by Georgia three weeks before that. Pride takes over against a lesser Mizzou team this time around.
Against the spread pick: South Carolina
No. 19 Texas at No. 7 Oklahoma
Saturday, noon on Fox
Line: Oklahoma by 8
John: Oklahoma 45, Texas 28
This could be Texas Coach Tom Herman’s big splash. The Longhorns’ defense is pretty good. It is not good enough to stop quarterback Kyler Murray and the Sooners, however.
Against the spread pick: Oklahoma
Ben: Oklahoma 37, Texas 20
Expecting the undefeated — but sometimes uneven — Sooners to put together their most complete performance of the season so far in this rivalry game.
Against the spread pick: Oklahoma
No. 5 LSU at No. 22 Florida
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. on CBS
Line: LSU by 2.5
John: Florida 20, LSU 10
Florida’s defense is starting to get it together under coordinator Todd Grantham. Mississippi State gained just 202 yards last week. LSU has played well, but I can’t shake the feeling Coach O (Ed Orgeron) is living on borrowed time. Gator bait.
Against the spread pick: Florida
Ben: LSU 24, Florida 19
The Gators defense is looking better, but LSU is great on that side of the ball, too, and Joe Burrow and the Tigers have shown they can bring some offensive moxie to complement it. LSU has already won at Auburn. Gainesville is next.
Against the spread pick: LSU
No. 13 Kentucky at Texas A&M
Saturday, 7 p.m. on ESPN
Line: Texas A&M by 6
John: Kentucky 21, Texas A&M 17
I promised last week I had learned my lesson. No more doubting the Cats. Yes, College Station is a crazy place to play. Yes, Jimbo Fisher has given the Aggies a booster shot. But I’m sticking with last week’s vow. Until further notice.
Against the spread pick: Kentucky
Ben: Kentucky 27, Texas A&M 24
This comes down to the best run defense in the SEC against the best running back in the SEC (and a pretty dang good offensive line). Can’t bet against Benny.
Against the spread pick: Kentucky
Vanderbilt at No. 2 Georgia
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. on SEC Network
Georgia by 27
John: Georgia 41, Vanderbilt 10
The 2018 Georgia is not as good as the 2017 Georgia. That’s my belief and I’m sticking to it. Georgia 2017 is still pretty good, however. It is certainly good enough to roll a Vanderbilt team that nearly lost to Tennessee State.
Against the spread pick: Georgia
Ben: Georgia 35, Vanderbilt 14
The Bulldogs have appeared bored at times during this run through lesser SEC East opposition. Here’s guessing they’re content to win this one by three touchdowns and call it a night.
Against the spread pick: Vanderbilt
No. 8 Auburn at Mississippi State
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. on ESPN2
Auburn by 4
John: Mississippi State 24, Auburn 21
Two teams with offensive-minded head coaches. Two teams with struggling offenses. Auburn ranks 98th nationally in total offense. Mississippi State gained 403 total yards over its last two games. One offense has to break out. I say the home team.
Against the spread pick: Mississippi State
Ben: Mississippi State 21, Auburn 20
The Tigers haven’t played a road game yet this season. Starkville, at night, against a Mississippi State team with something to prove isn’t the ideal place to start.
Against the spread pick: Mississippi State
No. 6 Notre Dame at No. 24 Virginia Tech
Saturday, 8 p.m. on ABC
Notre Dame by 6
John: Notre Dame 23, Virginia Tech 14
A win in Blacksburg and the Irish are almost certain to run the table. If the Irish run the table, they are almost certain to be in the College Football Playoff. Deserving? Undeserving? That’s just the way it works.
Against the spread pick: Notre Dame
Ben: Virginia Tech 21, Notre Dame 17
The Irish don’t deserve a College Football Playoff spot. Help us, Hokies, you’re our only hope.
Against the spread pick: Virginia Tech
Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 1 p.m. on CBS
Line: Cincinnati by 6.5
John: Bengals 30, Dolphins 17
Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor apparently made great use of his off-season. His offense is clicking. Losing tight end Tyler Eifert (again) to a broken ankle hurts, but Andy Dalton is not without alternative weapons. Who Dey rolls on.
Against the spread pick: Bengals
Ben: Bengals 24, Dolphins 20
Miami was rolling until they ran into a New England team that might be ready to put it together. I like Cincinnati here, but it’ll be close.
Against the spread pick: Dolphins
SEC football standings
This story was originally published October 4, 2018 at 2:38 PM.