Has John Calipari’s offense at Kentucky become outdated?
As Kentucky was taking a tumble at the hands of Utah 69-66 in Las Vegas on Wednesday, a Twitter follower wondered if UK coach John Calipari had fallen behind the times when it comes to offensive strategy.
I don’t think so, but it is true that the Wildcats (8-2) have failed to score 70 points in three of their last four games. Wednesday night, they shot 41.3 percent from the floor, including just 2-of-17 from three-point range for 11.8 percent. The overall field goal percentage was UK’s third-lowest of the season, ahead of only the 38 percent shooting in the win over Michigan State in the CBS Sports Classic and 37 percent in the shocking home loss to Evansville.
Kentucky’s game-by-game shooting percentages this year:
- Michigan State 38.0
- Eastern Kentucky 54.8
- Evansville 37.0
- Utah Valley 43.9
- Mount St. Mary’s 54.5
- Lamar 50.9
- UAB 47.3
- Fairleigh Dickinson 51.6
- Georgia Tech 47.1
- Utah 41.3
Checking kenpom’s offensive analytic stats, UK is currently 31st in offensive efficiency. Here’s how that ranks among Calipari’s previous 10 Kentucky teams:
- 2019-20 - 108.5 (31)
- 2018-19 - 117.6 (14)
- 2017-18 - 115.8 (24)
- 2016-17 - 119.1 (12)
- 2015-16 - 121.8 (5)
- 2014-15 - 121.3 (6)
- 2013-14 - 118.3 (14)
- 2012-13 - 111.4 (38)
- 2011-12 - 122.2 (2)
- 2010-11 - 117.8 (8)
- 2009-10 - 114.9 (22)
So as you can see, so far anyway, this is Calipari’s least efficient offensive team from a points per 100 possessions standpoint. As far as offensive efficiency rankings go, only Cal’s NIT team of 2012-13 was less efficient.
There’s plenty of time to improve, of course. The Cats have played just 10 games, and they have nowhere to go but up when it comes to three-point shooting. After Wednesday night’s woeful showing from behind the arc, Kentucky is shooting 27.5 percent from three-point range, which ranks 327th out of the 353 Division I schools.
I don’t think Calipari’s offense is outdated. I do think there is a lack of perimeter firepower on this team. Freshman Johnny Juzang was supposed to provide that skill to the roster, but the California native is having a hard time making it onto the floor. He’s averaging just 11.8 minutes per game, and has made just five of 24 field goal attempts for 20.8 percent. Juzang is just 2-of-13 from three for 15.4 percent.
Here are Kentucky’s effective field-goal percentage — FG + (0.5*3P)/FGA — numbers under Calipari with the ranking in parenthesis:
- 2019-20 - 50.5 (132)
- 2018-19 - 53.0 (76)
- 2017-18 - 51.8 (134)
- 2016-17 - 52.9 (65)
- 2015-16 - 53.5 (40)
- 2014-15 - 51.5 (75)
- 2013-14 - 49.9 (151)
- 2012-13 - 52.6 (37)
- 2011-12 - 53.8 (14)
- 2010-11 - 52.3 (41)
- 2009-10 - 53.1 (32)
By the way, kenpom has Kentucky 15th in overall efficiency, but gives the Cats just a 33 percent chance of beating Ohio State on Saturday in the CBS Sports Classic. (Ohio State is No. 2 in Pomeroy’s overall rankings.) In fact, the stats maven has the Cats headed for a three-game losing streak, including a home loss to Louisville on Dec. 28.
Also, Kentucky’s upset loss to Utah dropped the Cats out of Gary Parrish’s daily Top 25 and 1 rankings. He writes:
“Counting out a Calipari-coached team is forever dumb; I’m not going to do it. But, truth be told, the Wildcats have done nothing impressive since Opening Night. They’ve beaten zero good teams since the win over Michigan State and lost to two teams ranked 100th-or-worse at KenPom — the latest result coming late Wednesday when Kentucky was outplayed from start to finish while losing 69-66 to a Utah team that entered ranked 107th at KenPom.”
This story was originally published December 20, 2019 at 9:03 AM.
