He's a $3 million colt with impeccable credentials, but is he a good bet in the Kentucky Derby?

He’s a $3 million horse who already has a Breeders’ Cup win to his name and comes into this week’s Kentucky Derby with the most visually impressive victory of the prep season.

He’s Mendelssohn, and he’s also one of the biggest question marks in the race.

The son of Scat Daddy will likely go off as one of the favorites in Saturday — and he should — but he’ll also be attempting to buck some major history.

The last 36 Kentucky Derby starters that raced outside of the United States or Canada before loading into the starting gate on the first Saturday in May have failed to finish in the money.

The previous 13 horses who came to Churchill Downs after running in the UAE Derby — the prep race in Dubai, where Mendelssohn romped to an 18½-length victory on March 31 — have all failed to finish better than fifth on Kentucky Derby Day.

The most recent Derby winner whose last race was outside the United States? That would be Canonero II, who finished third in a race in Venezuela before, shockingly, taking the roses in 1971.

No European-based horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby.

Those are some mighty stats for Mendelssohn to overcome.

He’ll still be difficult for bettors to ignore Saturday.

Bred in Kentucky and purchased for $3 million at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale two years ago, Mendelssohn has since won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar — his only start in America — and the UAE Derby on the dirt in Dubai. He’s also won a couple of other times — on both turf and synthetic surfaces – in Ireland.

He comes to Churchill Downs the winner of three straight races, and he was credited with a 106 Beyer speed rating — second in this field only to Justify’s 107 — in his UAE Derby romp, which was run in track record time.

So, is he a smart bet on Derby Day? That’ll be up to you to figure out, and it’ll be one of the major questions on handicappers’ minds as they plan their wagers.

Here’s a closer look at a little bit of the history that Mendelssohn must overcome:

The UAE Derby

Mendelssohn will be the 14th starter from the Dubai prep race — first run in 2000 — to make the Kentucky Derby starting gate, and the ones that have come before him include nine UAE Derby winners and several who were highly touted entering Louisville.

The most recent in both cases was Thunder Snow, who went off at 16-1 odds last year, had all sorts of trouble out of the starting gate and was pulled up immediately. He came out of the ordeal OK, and he most recently romped to a victory over favored West Coast in the Dubai World Cup, taking that $10 million race the same day Mendelssohn won the UAE Derby.

Mubtaahij, who finished eighth in the Kentucky Derby three years ago, and Desert Party, who finished 14th in the 2009 Derby, both went off at 14-1 odds. The shortest Kentucky Derby price for a UAE Derby alum so far has been Essence of Dubai, who finished ninth at 10-1 odds in 2002.

Master of Hounds finished fifth in the Kentucky Derby in 2011, and that’s the best a UAE Derby starter has ever fared on the first Saturday in May.

A long trip

According to the official Kentucky Derby media guide, you’d have to go back to 1986 to find the most recent Derby starter who managed to finish in the top three at Churchill Downs after previously racing outside the contiguous United States and Canada.

That would be Bold Arrangement, who finished second in the Derby after racing predominantly in Europe.

There have been 36 such starters since Bold Arrangement, and no one has cashed a win, place or show ticket on any of them. That list has included some major long shots, sure, but it’s also featured some real contenders, and even a couple of favorites.

Johannesburg, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champ, went back to Europe before the Derby and finished eighth at Churchill Downs — going off at 8-1 odds — in 2002. He was the last international starter to go off at a shorter price than 10-1.

That list also includes The Deputy, who finished 14th as the 9-2 second betting choice in 2000, and Hello, who finished eighth at 9-1 in 1997. Four others in that span have gone off at 10-1 odds — none of them finishing better than sixth.

In 1992, the favored Arazi — also a winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile — finished eighth in the Kentucky Derby after completing just one prep race, in France, as a 3-year-old.

Arazi, undefeated and billed as a super horse, went off as the 4-5 betting favorite in 1992, and he remains the shortest-priced, non-coupled Kentucky Derby favorite since Spectacular Bid in 1979.

This 36-starter skid began with Mister Frisky, who was a star in the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico before heading to California for the Derby prep season in 1990. He entered the Kentucky Derby with a perfect 16-for-16 record — with most of those victories coming in Puerto Rico — and was made the 9-5 favorite.

Mister Frisky finished eighth on Derby Day.

The connections

Mendelssohn is trained by the widely respected Aidan O’Brien, who has won seemingly just about every major horse race in the world, including 12 Breeders’ Cup victories (five of those with 2-year-olds; Mendelssohn being the fifth).

O’Brien, 48, was born in Ireland and is an incredibly successful trainer in Europe, but he’s never come close on his few attempts at a Kentucky Derby victory.

Mendelssohn will be O’Brien’s sixth Derby starter since 2002 and his first in five years. His best finish so far was with UAE Derby runner-up Master of Hounds, who finished fifth in 2011.

Jockey Ryan Moore, who has ridden Mendelssohn for all four of his career victories, will be back in the saddle Saturday. He’ll be skipping the prestigious 2000 Guineas Stakes in England to make the trip to Louisville, and he said this after their impressive day together in Dubai a few weeks back:

“Next time it’s going to be a far tougher question but we’re very happy with what he’s done and I still feel he will get better. He’s got the pedigree and looks to go with the form he’s producing, so he’s a very exciting horse.”

This will be Moore’s second Kentucky Derby. He rode 31-1 shot Lines of Battle — also trained by O’Brien — to a seventh-place finish in 2013.

Kentucky Derby history of UAE Derby runners

Kentucky Derby

▪ About 6:34 p.m. Saturday, May 5, at Churchill Downs (NBC-18)

This story was originally published April 30, 2018 at 5:55 AM with the headline "He's a $3 million colt with impeccable credentials, but is he a good bet in the Kentucky Derby?."