Classic Empire strikes back and could be Kentucky Derby favorite

The Kentucky Derby is less than three weeks away and we’ve hit the reset button.

Again.

Welcome back, Classic Empire. We missed you. At least we missed the classic version of Classic Empire, the talented son of Pioneerof the Nile who won the 2016 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita and was crowned 2- year-old champion.

This year was a much different and baffling story, however. There was Classic Empire’s dull third-place run in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream in February. There was his refusal to work in the mornings. There was a foot abscess and a back problem. There was his trip to Winding Oaks Farm near Ocala, Fla., where Classic Empire settled down and turned in three solid workouts.

Then there was Saturday’s dramatic return to form at Oaklawn Park. Forced to hold back at the start, mired in traffic throughout the backstretch, then forced wide at the turn for home, Classic Empire shot down the stretch to nip Conquest Mo Money by a half length and win the Arkansas Derby.

“And just like that, the bad boy is back,” proclaimed Classic Empire’s Twitter account.

And just like that, John Oxley’s 3-year-old catapulted to second place in the Kentucky Derby point standings and possibly the top of the morning-line favorite list for the 143rd running of the world’s greatest race on the first Saturday in May.

Not that all mysteries were solved on Saturday. Is one race enough to convince skeptics Empire is back? Did he expend too much energy navigating the 12-horse field in Arkansas to have anything left in the tank for Churchill Downs?

Actually, Classic Empire’s story mimics those of so many of this year’s top Kentucky Derby contenders. Step one, impressively winning a Derby prep. Step two, throw in a deflating dud next time out. Step three, return to the fundamentals. Step four, execute a comeback.

Look at Irish War Cry, who beat Classic Empire in the Holy Bull. His next race, Irish War Cry didn’t bother to show up, finishing seventh in the Fountain of Youth. Trainer Graham Motion responded by returning Irish War Cry to Fair Hill Training Center in Maryland where the colt could relax and rediscover his old self. Worked like a charm. Irish War Cry bounced back with a big win in the Wood Memorial.

Look at Gormley, considered best of the surprisingly unimpressive West. Trained by John Shirreffs and owned by Jerry and Ann Moss — connections for Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo and the legendary Zenyatta — Gormley won the Sham Stakes before finishing fourth in the San Felipe. He then bounced back to win the Santa Anita Derby.

Then there’s McCraken, who hopes to make his comeback on Kentucky Derby day. After winning the Sam F. Davis to go 4-for-4 lifetime, he missed the Tampa Bay Derby because of a minor ankle problem. The lack of fitness showed in his third-place finish in Keeneland’s Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. He could be ready to roll at Churchill.

Next question: Will the Louisiana Derby and Florida Derby winners bounce? Those would be Girvin and Always Dreaming, respectively.

Girvin sits atop the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 150 points. Trained by 32-year-old Joe Sharp and owned by 38-year-old Brad Grady, he’s coming off back-to-back wins in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby. His sire, Tale of Ekati, was more of a sprinter, however. Can Girvin get the distance?

Meanwhile, of all the final major prep winners, none was more impressive than Always Dreaming. Trained by Todd Pletcher and owned by Brooklyn Boyz Stables, the son of Bodemeister ran away with the Florida Derby by 5 lengths in his stakes debut. But does he have enough seasoning?

Truth be told, even in a 20-horse field, the Kentucky Derby will come down to Classic Empire.

“He just has so much ability,” Casse said on Saturday.

Is he healthy? Is he happy? If so, on May 6, Classic Empire is the one to beat.

This story was originally published April 16, 2017 at 5:31 PM with the headline "Classic Empire strikes back and could be Kentucky Derby favorite."