COVID-19 may have killed twice as many Kentucky residents as counted so far, CDC says
COVID-19 may have killed – directly or indirectly – as many as 3,073 people in Kentucky, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The CDC has estimated that anywhere from 1,249 to 3,073 “excess deaths” have occurred in Kentucky as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. The CDC’s estimate includes the 1,363 COVID-19 deaths which have been reported by Gov. Andy Beshear and the state Department for Public Health. But the CDC’s estimate, which lags real counts in the states by several weeks, also includes additional deaths that would not have happened if it weren’t for the pandemic.
The estimate of deaths includes deaths caused by COVID-19 but incorrectly classified. Also included were fatalities — from other causes — that could have been pandemic related.
Gov. Andy Beshear announced “surge preparations” on Tuesday.
“Our cases continue to go up, our hospitalization continues to go up, we continue to see more people in the ICU,” Beshear said. “And if we can’t get everybody’s buy-in, we can’t get more people doing the right thing each and every day, my concern is that we are going to experience a real surge.”
Beshear said the state wants to be ready to set up field hospitals, utilize hotel space and potentially use state parks. During the early months of the pandemic, University of Kentucky HealthCare constructed a 400-bed field hospital, but never actually used it. It was dismantled.
Kentucky’s excess deaths ranked 26th out of the 50 U.S. states plus other U.S. territories, according to the CDC. The national estimate for excess deaths — fatalities that exceed those normally occurring in the same time period — is anywhere between 231,952 and 311,882, according to the CDC.
That means the actual U.S. death toll from the pandemic could be 42 percent greater than the number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths the country has had so far — more than 219,000, according to the CDC.
The United States already has the most reported COVID-19 deaths by any country, according to Johns Hopkins University.
The CDC calculates excess deaths two ways. One way is by calculating the difference between total deaths and average expected deaths, which the CDC does to calculate the higher end of the deaths range. The other way is by subtracting total deaths from the higher end of a prediction interval, which is what the CDC does to calculate the lower end of the death range.
The CDC has tracked excess deaths every week. Kentucky began hitting the CDC’s excess threshold during the week of April 4, about one month after COVID-19 first reached the state. Kentucky has had more deaths than expected in most weeks since then, although the last two weeks have fallen under the threshold.
Kentucky’s highest number of excess deaths came three weeks ago. As many as 233 excess deaths occurred in that week, according to the CDC.
This story was originally published October 21, 2020 at 4:10 PM.