All Kentucky counties — except one — ranked ‘low’ for COVID. How long will decline last?

When the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updated its COVID community levels Thursday, just one Kentucky county glowed yellow on the map.

Anderson County, west of Lexington, was the commonwealth’s only county out of 120 to not be ranked a low COVID community level. Instead, it was at medium — with 294.54 cases per 100,000 residents the week of March 31 to April 6, according to CDC data.

Kentucky, like much of the country, has seen fewer new coronavirus cases in recent weeks, coming off the peak of the winter’s omicron surge. In February, when the CDC rolled out the community levels as a means to empower local officials to make mask guidance and other public health decisions, many Kentucky counties were considered high. A cluster of counties stretching through eastern Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia and Tennessee remained “high” for several weeks.

With just one county ranked medium, will this lull in COVID-19 cases last? Here’s what we found out from some state experts.

Is another wave on its way?

The BA.2 omicron variant, sometimes referred to as stealth omicron, is now the dominant variant in the U.S. It’s even more transmissible than BA.1.

Some parts of the U.S. are already experiencing more cases driven by the stealth variant. Philadelphia became the first major city where officials have instituted a new indoor mask mandate to begin April 18.

“We are certainly seeing the beginning of a surge of new infections,” Dr. Anthony Fauci told CNN for a report released Tuesday. How serious BA.2 proves to be in the U.S. “depends on how high we go up in the surge, and it depends on whether the surge is associated with an increase in severe disease.”

The Mayo Clinic’s U.S. trends map shows a slight uptick in seven-day average cases since the beginning of the month, from 8.7 average daily cases per 100,000 individuals as of April 3 to 9.8 per 100,000 as of April 11.

Dr. Brooke Hudspeth, chief practice officer at the University of Kentucky College of Pharmacy, told the Herald-Leader that Kentuckians will continue to see declining COVID-19 cases here provided they keep up proven public health practices. That includes staying up to date with coronavirus vaccinations, following public mask guidance, staying home when you’re sick and getting tested if you have COVID-19 symptoms.

“I think those are all areas that will continue to keep us at this low level,” Hudspeth said.

Vaccines, including second booster doses for eligible individuals, are readily available in Kentucky.

COVID cases in Kentucky

According to the latest report from the state, released Monday, Kentucky reported 3,117 new cases the week prior to April 11, along with 172 new deaths.

Additionally, the state reported a positivity rate of 2.27%, a slight uptick from the prior week’s at 1.97%.

Should I wear a mask in Kentucky?

Under the CDC’s COVID community level guidance, those living in or visiting counties scored high should mask in public indoor places.

That advice differs for those at higher risk or who come in frequent contact with high-risk individuals, who should consider masking in public in medium or low levels, the CDC says.

Any individual can mask up in indoor or congregate settings based on preference, and those who have tested positive, have symptoms or been exposed to COVID-19 should always wear a mask in public.