Bevin says he’ll run for governor. So why is it taking him so long to start?

Kentucky Senate President Robert Stivers, R-Manchester, is a lawyer, so it’s possible he was just accounting for all possibilities last month when he casually threw out the possibility Gov. Matt Bevin might not run for reelection.

It was toward the end of a news conference about the Senate’s legislative priorities and Stivers was talking about how the legislature needed help from the executive branch to improve the state’s infrastructure.

“Those type of things are going to have to be established by the person who has the ability, be it this governor, or if he is not successful or does not run or whatever, the next governor, to establish and set the predicate for whatever may happen,” Stivers said.

It was an unusual statement, one that caused an immediate reaction from the assembled press.

“Are you concerned the governor might not run?” a reporter asked.

“No, he said he’s going to run,” Stivers responded. “I’m just throwing out any potential possibility.”

The possibility remains open because it has been five months since Bevin dramatically announced he was running for reelection at a Republican Party of Kentucky dinner in August and he still hasn’t filed any paperwork to start raising money for a 2019 campaign.

Normally, an incumbent governor would have already filed their intent to run and would be building a substantial war chest to squash their opposition. That’s especially true for unpopular incumbents. A recent Mason-Dixon poll of registered voters in the 2019 gubernatorial race found Bevin was trailing Attorney General Andy Beshear by eight points and was within the margin of error against House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins, the two Democratic candidates officially in the race.

“Governor Bevin is not a typical politician, he doesn’t behave the way typical politicians do,” said Tres Watson, the communications director for the Republican Party of Kentucky. “That’s why Kentuckians like him and that’s why he’ll be elected to a second term.”

Here are three potential explanations for Bevin’s hesitancy to officially launch his reelection campaign.

Bevin being Bevin

Throughout the summer, when Bevin was asked if he would seek a second term, he often dismissed the question, saying he had plenty of time to decide.

It wasn’t until after U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell suggested Bevin should run for reelection, which pushed speculation about Bevin’s political future to a boiling point, that Bevin put the rumors to bed.

“As an incumbent with the ability to self fund, it removes the urgency that many candidates feel like they need to increase their name ID and raise money,” said Les Fugate, a Republican lobbyist.

And Bevin does still have time. The filing deadline isn’t until January 29 and a significant primary challenger seems out of the question. He’s active with the Republican Governor’s Association, the Koch Network and the Heritage Foundation and would likely be able to raise cash quickly after announcing his candidacy. Plus, he’s a multimillionaire with name recognition from his first four years as governor.

But the delay has the potential to make backers nervous and opens the door for others to enter the race on the off chance Bevin bows out.

“I think the last thing you do is try to tell this governor what to do,” Fugate said. “He always blazes his own path.”

A running mate

If it were just his name on the ballot, it’s possible Bevin would have filed his campaign paperwork by now.

Instead, Kentucky law requires a gubernatorial candidate to have a lieutenant governor running mate before filing. That has left Bevin in a tricky situation.

In an interview with the Chamber of Commerce this month, Bevin said he would decide on a running mate soon before saying he wasn’t sure if it would be current Lt. Gov. Jenean Hampton.

“There’s never been, I don’t believe, eight years of the same governor and lieutenant governor in the history of Kentucky,” Bevin incorrectly told Jacqueline Pitts. (Former Gov. Paul Patton and Lt. Gov. Steve Henry served together for eight years and their term ended in 2003.) “It’s not normal anywhere, and it’s presumptuous of me to assume things on our lieutenant governor’s behalf as to what her desires are.”

Dropping Hampton, the first black woman elected to a statewide office in Kentucky history, could be a challenge for Bevin. Some Tea Party activists have already told him they won’t support him if he chooses not to run with her and it wouldn’t help a deeply unpopular governor to stir resentment among his base.

Should he decide to run with someone else, there’s the challenge of finding a new running mate. Bevin alienated many Republican lawmakers with his comments on the legislature’s sexual harassment scandal and about teachers during the pension debate.

Freezing the field

Republicans in Frankfort widely take Bevin at his word that he’s running for reelection, but there is a chance he’ll pull out at the last minute.

On almost every filing day, there’s a politician who makes room for a handpicked candidate by freezing the field. They’ll indicate they’re running for reelection, maybe even file, but withdraw at the last minute to make room for the successor of their choice.

It often works because other potential candidates don’t have time to get their paperwork filed in Frankfort. A last-minute filing is even more difficult for a gubernatorial candidate because Kentucky law requires them to name a running mate.

That means Bevin could potentially freeze the field — people rarely want to go up against an incumbent — and help his hand-picked successor avoid a primary in a Republican Party that has a deep bench of candidates waiting their turn.

There’s no indication Bevin is planning such a move, but it remains a possibility until he launches his reelection campaign in earnest.

This story was originally published December 19, 2018 at 1:48 PM.