Political Notebook: Is Matt Bevin a serious candidate for Kentucky governor in 2023?
There are many things that irk Republicans about Gov. Andy Beshear.
There’s his attitude (they believe he’s sanctimonious). There’s his politicking (they think he doesn’t want to share the spotlight). There’s his press conferences about COVID-19 (a combination of the two previous parentheticals).
And then there’s the fact that they don’t believe he should be in the Governor’s Mansion at all.
“Literally any other Republican would have won that race,” said Sen. Damon Thayer, R-Georgetown.
So Thayer, who’s itching to get the Democratic governor out of office, is excited about the potential field of candidates Republicans might put forward in two years. He raves about former U.N. ambassador and Republican mega-donor Kelly Craft’s potential as a politician. He says both Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles and U.S. Rep. Jamie Comer would be “formidable” in a race for governor.
But there’s one potential candidate who makes some Republicans wary: former Gov. Matt Bevin, the guy who lost to Beshear in the first place.
“Andy Beshear did not beat Matt Bevin,” said Rob Sanders, the Commonwealth’s Attorney in Kenton County. “Matt Bevin beat Matt Bevin. And Matt Bevin will beat himself every time he runs.”
Rumors have begun swirling that Bevin has been making phone calls to gauge support and is seriously considering a run in 2023, despite losing to Beshear in 2019, despite the fights he had with teachers and county judge-executives and the people who don’t think there should be a toll on the Brent Spence Bridge, despite the now-public annoyance among Republicans in Frankfort about how Bevin operated, and despite the hundreds of controversial pardons he issued on his way out the door.
The Herald-Leader was unable to reach Bevin and his former chief of staff, Blake Brickman, didn’t respond to a text message asking if Bevin was planning a run.
Kentucky politicos, though, have started taking a potential Bevin run seriously.
“A former governor who barely lost his reelection bid, even one who did crazy things on his way out the door, is a serious candidate,” said Matt Erwin, a Democratic campaign consultant.
Bevin lost to Beshear by just 5,086 votes and claimed, with no supporting evidence, that there were election “irregularities” for more than a week before eventually conceding.
In the time since, Republicans have picked up more than 111,000 registered voters while the Democrats have lost more than 30,000.
Republican statehouse gains in the 2020 election, combined with Republican reaction to Beshear’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, may have Bevin itching for a do-over.
There is no question that Bevin would have handled the pandemic differently — think Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem — and many Republicans are feeling a bit of buyer’s remorse after watching Beshear in action for a little more than a year.
Lee Watts, the self-proclaimed chaplain of the Kentucky Capitol who has participated in several of the rallies protesting against Beshear’s COVID-19 restrictions, said Bevin would have a lot of support if he were to run again.
“I actually believe that he legally won the election last time,” Watts said in a YouTube video where he talked about the potential Republican candidates for governor (Watts believes in several theories that have been disproved).
Many Republicans want Bevin to think twice.
Sanders, the commonwealth attorney, was a big Bevin supporter in the 2019 election. He both volunteered and donated to Bevin’s campaign.
That was before Bevin issued hundreds of pardons on his way out the door, including pardons and commutations for a man who was found guilty of beheading a woman and stuffing her in a barrel, a man who sodomized an unconscious classmate so violently that the classmate nearly died and enough men convicted of child sexual assault that Bevin had to ask “which one” when asked about it on the radio. More than one of the people Bevin pardoned already faces new charges.
For Sanders, those pardons are unforgivable.
“Absolutely not,” Sanders said when asked if he would support Bevin if he ran again.
If the race were between Bevin and Beshear again, he would sit it out, Sanders said. When asked why he thought Bevin might be running again, Sanders attributed it to the former governor’s wounded ego.
The gubernatorial election is still two years away and there are truckloads of Republicans who have been mentioned as potential candidates, from U.S. Rep. Andy Barr, R-Lexington, to Somerset Mayor Alan Keck.
A crowded primary could be in Bevin’s favor. The more candidates in the race, the more the vote splits and Bevin still has a base of support, particularly among conservative evangelicals.
“I think Bevin retains a lot of loyalty from his first term in office,” said Tres Watson, a Republican campaign consultant who is close with Quarles.
Republicans say they can see a scenario where Bevin emerges from a competitive Republican primary, but they have a harder time seeing him beat Beshear in a general election.
Watson said he doesn’t believe Bevin is unelectable, but he would have to explain the pardons and apologize.
The idea of Matt Bevin apologizing is laughable to many. He’s the guy whose political legacy in Frankfort was defined by the fights he picked and his refusal to back down. Who, when asked if he rubbed people the wrong way, said it happens all the time because he’s telling them the truth. Whose inability to apologize, to recognize any mistakes, was attributed as the biggest factor in stopping him from winning a second term.
“Well, there’s a first time for everything,” Watson said.
This story was originally published April 30, 2021 at 11:00 AM.
