KY Politics Insider: Cameron’s poll shows lead & Beshear on the road
Kentucky Politics Insider offers an analysis of Kentucky politics and the conversations that drive decisions. Email reporter Austin Horn at ahorn@herald-leader.com or ping him on social media sites with tips or comments.
A newly released poll from Daniel Cameron’s campaign for U.S. Senate shows the former attorney general still up big over his GOP opponents.
Conducted Oct. 8-10 by co/efficient polling, a firm co-founded by Cameron’s general consultant, the survey showed Cameron with a 17-point lead over 6th Congressional District Rep. Andy Barr in second place.
The poll of 911 GOP voters deemed “likely” to show up to the May 2026 primary saw 39% say they’d pick Cameron if the primary race were held today. About 22% of respondents picked Barr, 8% said they’d vote for Lexington entrepreneur Nate Morris, 4% responded “someone else,” and 27% remained undecided.
All three men are running to replace Mitch McConnell, who is not seeking reelection next year.
Though the voters surveyed were somewhat divided in their thoughts on the candidates, there was one politician they weren’t divided on: President Donald Trump.
By and large, Kentucky Republicans like Donald Trump. About 91% of the surveyed group approved of Trump’s job performance in his second term, and only 5% disapproved. The result lines up with how the three top candidates in the race are treating Trump: never disagreeing with him and often trying to stake their claim as the most aligned with the president.
The poll also included favorable and unfavorable ratings from the respondents on each of the three candidates. It showed Cameron with a more positive, and much more solidified, favorability than either Barr or Morris. Cameron’s rating was 56/12, Barr came in at 33/17 and Morris was 12/18.
Co-founded by Cameron general consultant Brandon Moody, co/efficient polling was given a “B+” rating by longtime elections analyst Nate Silver.
The timing of the campaign’s poll was questioned by some politically connected Kentuckians. It came just days before the planned release of third financial quarter campaign finance reports. So far in the race, Cameron has been significantly out-raised and outspent by Barr and Morris.
A press release that accompanied the poll tried to establish the results as proof that money won’t quell Cameron’s support built over two statewide elections and big news-making moments like his speech at the 2020 Republican National Convention, his place in history as the state’s first Black attorney general or office’s investigation into the police killing of Breonna Taylor.
“The Oct. 10 polling demonstrates that Daniel Cameron has built a formidable, durable lead in the Kentucky Republican Senate Primary. Despite millions spent in opposition, Kentucky voters know Cameron, like Cameron, and are voting for Cameron,” co/efficient President Ryan Munce wrote in the release.
Barr’s poll
On Tuesday, Barr’s campaign posted polling numbers that backed up Cameron’s own survey.
In a survey conducted Oct. 13-14 among 600 likely GOP voters, the internal poll yielded results showing 42% support for Cameron, 25% for Barr and 10% of respondents picking Morris.
Included in the crosstabs were results of previous surveys. The first poll conducted in mid-February, right on the cusp of McConnell announcing his retirement and Cameron launching, pegged Cameron at 47%, Barr at 19% and Morris at 3%. In August, once all three were in, Cameron had 39%, Barr was at 19% and Morris got 10%.
Favorability ratings among the candidates were similar, with Barr and Morris posting somewhat better figures than the internal Cameron poll where the survey asked if respondents had a favorable or unfavorable view of the candidates. Cameron’s rating was 61/15, Barr came in at 42/14 and Morris was 13/13.
The poll also measured the favorability of Trump and McConnell among the 600 voters polled. Kentucky Republicans largely loved Trump, and a majority of them did not like McConnell. Trump posted an 89/11 rating, while McConnell’s was 71/24, improving somewhat since the poll began in February.
The survey was conducted by UpONE Insights, a firm founded by Robert Blizzard, a Republican pollster with a long history of polling Kentucky.
Beshear abroad and out-of-state
Gov. Andy Beshear has been on the go.
In New Hampshire last week, Beshear stoked even more speculation about his presidential ambitions given the state’s traditionally early place in the presidential primary process. He made appearances at multiple political events and even presented the New Hampshire Democratic Party Chair Raymond Buckley with the rank of “Kentucky Colonel.”
A lifelong New Hampshirite, Buckley’s connection to the Bluegrass State is through an uncle, who he said in a social media post raised his family there.
There, Beshear also fielded some new questions from local media. He answered several in a wide-ranging interview with Manchester television station WMUR, but demurred on whether New Hampshire should be restored to its early primary order place, saying that was up to the Democratic National Committee.
One answer Beshear gave in New Hampshire caught the eye of the Republican National Committee, whose research arm took a swipe against Beshear on X saying the governor called himself a “pro-LGBTQ+ rights governor” because he “wasn’t in Kentucky.”
“A little bit about me, my values don’t change based on who I’m talking to. I’m a proud pro-LGBTQ+ rights Governor who vetoed anti-trans legislation in an election year and still beat Trump’s hand-picked candidate,” Beshear responded in a post.
Beshear has often touted that he was Kentucky’s first sitting governor to attend the statewide LGBTQ Fairness Rally in 2020, and has vetoed a number of bills targeting trans Kentuckians.
Another question Beshear fielded that drew some attention centered around embattled Virginia Democratic candidate for attorney general Jay Jones. Jones has received calls to drop out after text messages of him suggesting violence against the former Republican leader of Virginia’s state legislature were leaked.
Beshear called the text “absolutely inappropriate” in an interview with FOX News and was noncommittal on whether he would vote for Jones.
“It would be a very, very tough one for me to look at. It’s just really wrong, and it bothers me,” Beshear said.
This week, Beshear has also been busy on his second trip to Europe this year. Oriented around trade, the trip has included meetings with a company working to convert spent mash from distilleries in Marion County into renewable natural gas and fertilizer, as well as Diageo, the alcoholic beverage parent company of Bulleit Bourbon.
Beshear also visited business leaders in Spain and spoke at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January.
The financial reports
Money is not everything. But for many candidates, those powered by high-dollar interests and grassroots support alike, it’s a measure of how strong their support is. It’s also a key factor in whether they can get their message out on television and through mail advertisements.
Later this week, all candidates who were running for U.S. Senate and U.S. House as of September will release their third financial quarter fundraising reports to the Federal Elections Commission.
Here are some of the biggest questions going into the reporting period:
How much is Nate Morris working with, and how much of it is his?
It seems clear that Morris, who made a large sum of money leading a waste and software company that he took public in 2022, pumped a lot of his own cash into his U.S. Senate GOP primary campaign at the start.
Observers will be looking to see just how much Morris put up as well as how much financial support he’s garnered from Washington networks — he’s a friend of many high-powered younger Republicans like Vice President JD Vance and Donald Trump, Jr. — as well as Kentuckians.
With Barr raising the most from Kentuckians in the last financial quarter, Morris could change that in his first public fundraising quarter.
Which Democrats break out?
Democratic races for U.S. House and U.S. Senate in Kentucky have not exactly been high-dollar affairs recently.
State House Minority Floor Leader Pamela Stevenson, D-Louisville, ended last quarter with slightly more debt than cash on hand in her bid for Senate.
The upcoming report will give observers their first taste of how Senate candidates Joel Willett of Louisville and Logan Forsythe of Lexington have been fundraising. Amy McGrath, who launched her campaign earlier this month, won’t have to release her fist fundraising numbers until mid-January.
In her bid for the 6th Congressional District, former state Rep. Cherlynn Stevenson got off to a hot start raising $210,000 in about 45 days. Former Lexington Councilman David Kloiber posted about $139,000, but most of that came from himself; having spent more on his 2022 mayoral run, he likely has access to more should he deem it necessary.
Democratic candidates for the 6th Congressional District Erin Petrey and Zach Dembo will be releasing their first reports in the coming days.
Dembo’s camp released its fundraising total early: $289,000 in two-and-a-half months. For both Dembo and Petrey, the breakdown of in-state versus out-of-state funds will be interesting to track given their professional ties to Washington.
Can Ryan Dotson fundraise?
Former state Sen. Ralph Alvarado has been trying to carve out the favorite lane thus far in the now-crowded race for the GOP nomination to replace Barr in Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District. His team dropped their own number — $376,000 raised on a somewhat truncated two-and-a-half month timeline — as evidence of that.
“We cannot be outworked, we will not be outraised, and I am the Republican candidate best prepared to hold Congressman Barr’s seat,” Alvarado wrote in a release.
Richmond state Rep. Deanna Gordon announced her own fundraising total of $357,000 after an almost full quarter of fundraising, almost keeping pace with Alvarado.
Since both Alvarado and Gordon have made significant amounts of money in their careers, the breakdown of self-funding versus donor interest is worth tracking.
The question mark for now is state Rep. Ryan Dotson, R-Winchester, who is ginning up interest via social media and in-person events, but posted a relatively low $95,975 in his first fundraising report. Most of it came from himself.
Greg Plucinski, a Nicholasville resident who entered the GOP nomination race this week, is likely able to cut a significant check for himself given the recent sale of his pharmaceutical company to a larger conglomerate.
What’s Daniel Cameron’s trajectory?
While not quite as paltry as opponents painted them, Cameron’s first two quarters of fundraising left something to be desired.
Cameron ended last quarter with $532,000 on hand, having raised about $386,000 in the previous three months. Barr raised more than $1.4 million during the quarter, adding to a cushion he’d created over years of fundraising for his House campaigns, which are transferable to Senate races.
It’s still early, but Cameron’s got a long way to go to reach the $6.1 million in cash on hand that Barr had accumulated as of June 30 and the millions Morris has already proven he’s willing to put up.
This story was originally published October 15, 2025 at 5:00 AM.
