Another new KY Senate GOP poll: Barr, Cameron in dead heat, Morris rising
A second independent poll of Kentucky Republican voters in the race for the GOP nomination to the U.S. Senate was released Thursday evening, and it backs up some of what the first poll found.
On the heels of Emerson College Polling/Fox56 releasing the first independent poll of the race this year on Thursday, Quantus Insights released a survey of 870 voters showing Rep. Andy Barr and former attorney general Daniel Cameron neck-and-neck for first place, with Barr at 28.3% and Cameron at 27.4%.
Lexington tech entrepreneur Nate Morris logged 16.6% of the vote in the survey. The poll was conducted via text, and was entirely conducted on Thursday, Feb. 4. No sponsor is listed for the poll.
Here are the full results, broken down by percentage:
- Barr: 28.3%.
- Cameron: 27.4%.
- Morris: 16.6%.
- Undecided: 19.2%.
- Another candidate: 8.5%.
The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.3%.
The poll bore some similarities to the Emerson College survey.
For one, it showed Cameron’s once-dominant lead in the polls vanish. While Emerson tagged Barr as the leader with 24% to Cameron’s 21%, the Quantus Insights poll had them closer to neck-and-neck. Still, both tracked a downward swing for Cameron compared to polls from late last year, such as a Barr-sponsored poll that had Cameron up on Barr by 17 points.
Morris’ rise is another red thread connecting the polls. The candidate has largely self-funded, and he got the early support of late conservative activist Charlie Kirk as well as several positive interactions with President Donald Trump’s son, Donald Trump, Jr.
Morris also recently got a boost from Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, who gave a PAC supporting him $10 million.
As of the end of the year, Barr was leading in the cash on hand race among the campaigns, with well over $6 million to his name. Cameron had less than a tenth of Barr’s total, but insists that “money can’t vote,” and his name ID and record will sway Kentucky GOP voters.
The poll differs somewhat from one conducted by former Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio on behalf of Morris’ campaign. That survey, taken Jan. 27-29, had Cameron with the clear lead over Barr, 29% to 21%. However, both preceding polls corroborate Morris’ rise in recent months from single digits to the teens. Fabrizio’s poll had Morris at 18%, but in the Emerson poll he was at 14%.
Quantus Insights is generally less respected than Emerson. The Silver Bulletin, a website run by data guru Nate Silver, gave Emerson an “A” grade for quality; Quantus Insights has a “B/C” grade.
Inside the poll
The Quantus Insights survey broke down support for each candidate based on gender, region, age and more.
Barr led with men (32% to Cameron’s 25%), while Cameron was the leader among women (30% to Barr’s 24%).
Cameron had a clear lead among voters 18-29 (50%) and 30-44 (25.6%), but Barr led slightly among older voters. Morris’ support was somewhat evenly spread, but declined for older age groups.
When asked which candidate they “believe is most likely to become the Republican nominee,” regardless of who they support, here’s how voters broke down:
- Barr: 31.8%.
- Cameron: 22.8%.
- Morris: 12.3%.
- Not sure: 33.1%.
Though many believe an endorsement from Trump would be decisive in the race, the poll showed that may not be so. But it certainly would help, according to a memo attached to the poll.
“A plurality of voters (35.3%) says a Trump endorsement would not affect their vote, while 30.1% say they would probably support the endorsed candidate and 18.1% say they would definitely do so,” the memo reads.
The memo also noted that a clearer geographical picture is starting to take place, with Barr leading in his home Central Kentucky base and Eastern Kentucky where he has the support of longtime Rep. Hal Rogers. Cameron had solid support elsewhere.
“Support varies substantially by congressional district. Barr’s strongest performance comes in eastern and central Kentucky, particularly CD-5 and CD-6, where he holds clear plurality support, including 46.2% in CD-6. Cameron, by contrast, leads across much of western and suburban Kentucky — CD-1 through CD-4 — with margins that are solid but not overwhelming. Morris’s support is more evenly distributed, but thinner, lacking a clear regional anchor,” the memo reads.
This story was originally published February 6, 2026 at 7:45 AM.
