KY Politics Insider: What to expect when Trump comes to NKY; Barr internal poll
Kentucky Politics Insider provides an analytical view of Kentucky politics and the conversations that drive decisions. Email me at ahorn@herald-leader.com or ping me on any one of the various social media sites with tips or comments.
President Donald Trump is coming to Kentucky Wednesday.
The Hebron, Kentucky, stop is on his official schedule and Trump is expected to make remarks on policy there, as well as a stop across the Ohio River focused on his “TrumpRX” site, offering prescription drugs at discounted prices.
A social media post from the Republican Party of Kentucky wrote that Trump is expected to “lay out the work he’s doing to make America affordable again and the plan Republicans have to keep our country moving forward.”
But, given the location, politics is likely to play a role. Hebron is in the heart of Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District, where Trump has vociferously backed challenger Ed Gallrein over incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie.
Of all incumbent Republican members of the U.S. House, Massie has faced the most fire from the president.
Gallrein is expected to be there. Massie, who said he had pre-planned events on the opposite end of the district, is not.
Still, Massie told the Herald-Leader it seemed likely he’ll be a topic of discussion at the event, which will take place at a facility owned by Verst Logistics Group near the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport.
“I think, ostensibly, it’s an official event, not a campaign event. But look, I was in his prayers at the (National) Prayer Breakfast, so I expect I’ll be in his speech at this logistics facility,” Massie told the Herald-Leader.
The congressman acknowledged that the event will help Gallrein, a veteran from Shelby County who lost narrowly in a 2024 GOP state senate primary. He didn’t think it would help enough, though.
“It will help Ed, but I think it’s an indication that Ed’s campaign is floundering.... Obviously this will increase awareness in the district that Trump has endorsed Ed, but what we’ve seen in our polling, and this bears out anecdotally when you talk to people, is that most people who support Trump are voting for me,” Massie said.
All three of the leading GOP candidates for Senate in Kentucky — Lexington tech entrepreneur Nate Morris, former Attorney General Daniel Cameron and 6th Congressional District Rep. Andy Barr — confirmed to the Herald-Leader that they plan to attend the event.
Barr’s campaign is driving bus-loads of people for a full-day trip. A bus from Somerset departs for Northern Kentucky at 5:45 a.m. Louisville and Lexington buses head out at 6:45 a.m., per a social media post.
Cameron embraces Massie allies
At a rally held in Northern Kentucky Friday for his senate campaign, Cameron was asked essentially the same question three different times: What do you think about Thomas Massie?
Unlike Barr and Morris, Cameron has not endorsed Gallrein’s campaign against Massie.
“I’m the only smart candidate in United States Senate race,” Cameron told the crowd gathered on a patio in Florence at the Northern Kentucky staple restaurant Barleycorn’s.
“When it comes to this race, look: the folks in this district have to make that judgment. But what you don’t need is Andy Barr or Nate Morris trying to dictate that outcome. You all get to make that judgment,” Cameron said.
The crowd clapped. But a natural inquiry after Cameron’s statement is this: might it have a negative effect on his relationship with the president’s political operation, which has aligned to try and take Massie out?
When asked after the event, Cameron said Trump is merely looking for the best candidate, or “somebody that is going to work their tail off to get the nomination.”
“I think what President Trump appreciates is someone that is working hard to earn this nomination and is concerned about (this) race, and I think the people of the 4th District make the judgment... I think, by tonight’s showing, folks are eager to have somebody that is focused on them, and not focus on all the machinations and all that sort of stuff,” Cameron said.
In recent weeks, Cameron, who says his relationship with his old mentor Sen. Mitch McConnell is not as strong as it once was, has leaned more into support he’s gotten from Massie’s network, which is typically opposed to McConnell.
Opening the event for Cameron were two of Massie’s biggest allies in the district: GOP state Reps. Savannah Maddox and TJ Roberts.
Maddox emphasized Cameron’s faith as well as his focus on Second Amendment rights and pushing back on Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear over COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.
When asked the same question on how Cameron’s political positioning might affect Cameron’s relationship with the Trump camp, Maddox said it was “difficult to predict.”
“None of us has a crystal ball about who’s going to endorse whom or what that’s going to look like. But again, I think the groundswell that Daniel Cameron has created in Northern Kentucky and beyond this region has the capability of being recorded on election day,” Maddox said.
What does Massie think? He’s staying out of the Senate race, he told the Herald-Leader. But he’s had negative things to say about both Morris and Barr, whom he called “not really conservative.”
“I am earnestly dispassionate about that race. I’m staying out of it, but I think Massie supporters who want to get involved in the race were told by Andy Barr and Nate Morris that they don’t want their support when they endorsed my opponent in order just to try to curry, like, half a percent more favor from Donald Trump,” Massie said.
NTSB Board member from Kentucky
One of the biggest stories in Washington to start the week was the White House’s firing of J. Todd Inman, a member of the National Transportation Security Board.
Inman is a native of Marshall County, Kentucky, in the state’s Purchase Region.
Inman was chief of staff under former transportation secretary and wife of McConnell, Elaine Chao. He was nominated to the five-member board by Democratic President Joe Biden.
On Monday, the White House said it fired Inman for a litany of offenses, including drinking on the job, “harassment of staff, misuse of government resources, and failure to attend at least half of NTSB meetings,” according to a Washington Post story.
Inman called the allegations and his firing “a political hit job.”
“I categorically deny the false allegations made in the White House statement,” Inman told the Washington Post. “It has become increasingly obvious this action was a political hit job. While not my original intent I look forward to defending my reputation against those responsible with every legal means possible.”
Inman was a regular public representative of the powerful board in the wake of high-profile, deadly crashes like the American Airlines crash in Washington, D.C. last year, which killed 67 people, as well as a UPS flight crash in Louisville that killed 15.
“I’ve known Todd for a long time. No matter what positions he’s held, he was always dedicated, professional and honest. He makes Western Kentucky proud,” McCracken County Commissioner Bill Bartleman wrote in a social media post.
Barr internal poll
After a burst of public polling on Kentucky’s Republican U.S. Senate primary in late January and early February, it’s been more than a month since another one has hit the public.
But a recent “state of the race” memo from Barr’s campaign obtained by the Herald-Leader shows that at least one campaign has been running some polling.
As they are the product of a campaign and not an independently-commissioned pollster, take the results with a grain of salt. However, the poll, which was in the field Feb. 21-23, showed Barr gaining ground and Morris slipping, but Cameron still with the lead.
In that poll, Cameron had 32% support to Barr’s 29% and Morris’ 12%. Barr’s team, which has focused its fire almost exclusively on Morris, whose public poll numbers had been on the rise, declared in the memo that Morris “has collapsed.”
“The Kentucky Senate primary is a two-man race between Andy Barr and Daniel Cameron, and only Andy Barr has the resources and the organization to win this race,” the memo reads.
Still, a political action committee supporting Barr is continuing to run ads critical of Morris on television air waves, indicating he’s perceived as a threat.
The last two publicly available polls, finishing in the field Feb. 2 and Feb. 4, showed Barr with a slight edge over Cameron in the 20s and Morris climbing from single digits to the mid-teens.
