Who would be the front-runner for McConnell’s Senate seat in 2026?
The next U.S. Senate election in Kentucky isn’t scheduled for more than 950 days, but Mitch McConnell’s expected exit from his seat in 2027 leaves a once-in-a-generation opportunity for a pack of ambitious commonwealth politicians in 2026.
The reticence among political operatives and elected officials to speak publicly about a campaign for an open U.S. Senate seat more than two years away reflects the real risk of appearing overeager. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t quiet chatter bubbling up around the most formidable contenders to succeed Kentucky’s longest-serving senator.
The Herald-Leader has talked with lots of politicians, pundits and political observers on the heels of McConnell’s decision to abandon his Senate leadership post later this year. As word quietly leaked out about his decision to not seek reelection in 2026, several Republican candidates have emerged as potential successors.
Lexington Rep. Andy Barr, Northern Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie and former attorney general Daniel Cameron are seen as the three initial favorites to become the GOP nominee, according to conversations and messages with more than a half-dozen operatives in Washington and Kentucky.
But that doesn’t mean many more won’t take a hard look at the race following the 2024 election.
Rep. James Comer boasts a national profile from his Oversight Committee perch in Washington, but may instead pursue the open seat governor’s race in 2027 or continue to climb House leadership ranks.
“Congressman Comer plans on serving out his term as chairman of the high-profile House Oversight Committee through 2026,” said Caroline Cash, Comer’s chief of staff and political aide. “He isn’t focused on anything politically other than that, although he gets lots of encouragement back home in Kentucky to run for governor in 2027.”
State Auditor Allison Ball has a proven statewide imprint with a considerable base of support in Eastern Kentucky, but hasn’t been tested on the vast menu of national issues. Russell Coleman, the first-year attorney general, could present as an attractive option, but the political timeline may be too quick for someone intently focused on his day job that has been described as his dream job.
Michael Adams, the secretary of state, will be term-limited in 2027 and looking for a new role, but he has angered some on the right for his election integrity reforms.
Then there’s the X-factor: A wealthy outsider, like Kelly Craft, the former U.N. ambassador and unsuccessful 2023 candidate for governor, who some believe still harbors political ambitions.
“The best comparison is to the GOP presidential primary this year minus President Trump,” said Jake Cox, a Republican operative who has worked for U.S. Sen. Rand Paul and Ball. “You’ve got a field of massive talent and a broad spectrum of capabilities and regional appeals. It’s anyone’s bet who will get the job and even harder yet will be guessing who will decide not to run.”
BARR’S FUNDRAISING EDGE
Barr has already previously signaled his interest in the upper chamber when he registered a pair of Senate campaign websites in summer 2021. His spokesperson at the time explained that he was “a battle-tested winner who would be formidable in any statewide race.”
Barr would be the most natural to fill McConnell’s role, as someone who pays close attention to constituent services and who isn’t prone to making waves in the media with provocative statements.
A member of the House Financial Services Committee, Barr would also bring fundraising muscle to any statewide endeavor. He ended 2023 with $3.17 million in the bank to spend – more than any other Kentucky House member. It’s cash that could easily be transferred toward a U.S. Senate run.
“Andy is very well-positioned to become the next Financial Services Chairman, but also has a serious war chest and popularity across party lines that would make him a serious contender for statewide office if he decided to look at it,” said Betsy Wright Hawkings, Barr’s former chief of staff.
But Barr may lack the charisma necessary to galvanize passionate support in a competitive multi-candidate primary.
MASSIE’S IDEOLOGICAL ARMY
Massie, an outspoken libertarian with a sharp-witted account on X.com, the site formerly known as Twitter, is in many ways the opposite of Barr.
Massie is purposefully confrontational, highly ideological and a pretty good bet to be a “no” vote on legislation that sails easily through Congress. He’s also a poor fundraiser, posting the least amount of cash-on-hand of any Kentucky House member.
Still, in a Republican primary, he could amass a dedicated bastion of support among more conservative voters who want McConnell’s successor to be more like Paul than McConnell.
“Massie is not a strong fundraiser but his base is very loud. It’s the Twitter Republican base. I think he’d poll well early because of the number of undecideds,” said Tres Watson, a Republican public relations and political consultant. “I also think he wouldn’t mind getting out of the House and getting somewhere he doesn’t have to run every two years.”
Massie’s weakness could show up in Rep. Hal Rogers district, a vote rich area that is incredibly important to carry the state.
“They’re culturally conservative folks who aren’t reading the Federalist papers. They like it when the government does something for them,” said a Republican operative who has worked on numerous Kentucky statewide campaigns.
Massie also backed Ron DeSantis’ ill-fated campaign for president against former President Trump this year, making him again vulnerable to Trump’s wrath if he returns to the White House in 2025.
CAMERON’S GOODWILL
Despite a 5-point defeat to Gov. Andy Beshear last November, many Republicans still express goodwill toward Cameron, the former attorney general who is still only 38 years old.
And several say he’d be a natural candidate for the U.S. Senate seat, particularly given his close ties to McConnell and Trump, both who supported him in 2023.
Cameron is also mentioned as a potential gubernatorial candidate, but that option seems like the less likely path given his defeat and the interest of Comer and Ryan Quarles in the governor’s mansion. Others wonder if Cameron would want to move a young family to Washington.
The 2023 defeat to Beshear undoubtedly took some of the shine off an ascendant star who would’ve become the first Black Republican elected since Reconstruction.
But some operatives are already ruminating over the irony that if Cameron does run for Senate, his Democratic opponent could again be Beshear.
Having just won a second term in Frankfort, Beshear won’t say anything publicly about his future political prospects. Some speculation swirls that if President Biden is re-elected in 2024, Beshear is more likely to end up inside the Democratic administration in Washington than to pursue what would be an underdog U.S. Senate bid in Kentucky.
This story was originally published March 21, 2024 at 8:44 AM with the headline "Who would be the front-runner for McConnell’s Senate seat in 2026?."
