How cold will this Thanksgiving be? Farmers Almanac has Kentucky weather predictions
As Halloween nears and Lexington residents have seen some chilly days recently, they may be making holiday plans and wondering just how cold this fall will get.
The Farmers’ Almanac has released its Thanksgiving weekend weather predictions, which are valid from Nov. 24 to 27. Kentucky is in the almanac’s “Zone 2,” which also includes Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana and Wisconsin.
Zone 2’s prediction reads: “Grab the firewood! Mostly fair, cold Thanksgiving.”
The Almanac’s extended winter forecast cautioned the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region, which includes Kentucky, might be “unreasonably cold” and snowy later in the year.
How does the Farmers’ Almanac predict weather?
The Farmers’ Almanac has provided extended forecasts since 1818, according to its website, and typically projects out further than the National Weather Service.
The almanac makes predictions based on a mysterious formula that considers factors such as planetary positioning, sunspot activity and tidal action of the moon.
“The only person who knows the exact formula is the Farmers’ Almanac weather prognosticator who goes by the pseudonym of Caleb Weatherbee,” the website reads. “To protect this proprietary formula, the editors of the Farmers’ Almanac prefer to keep both Caleb’s true identity and the formula a closely guarded brand secret.”
Editors of the Farmers’ Almanac “firmly deny” using any type of computer satellite tracking equipment, weather lore or groundhogs. They say they use a specific and reliable set of rules developed in 1818 by the almanac’s first editor, an astronomer and mathematician named David Young. The rules have been altered slightly and turned into an astronomical, mathematical formula, the almanac says.
What does the National Weather Service forecast?
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center provides outlooks up to three months out, and the agency posted the most recent long-range forecast Sept. 15. It includes information for October, November and December.
It may be a relatively dry, warm fall – the majority of the commonwealth has roughly equal chances of above or below normal precipitation, while a sliver of Western Kentucky has a 33% to 40% chance of below normal precipitation.
The NWS seasonal temperature outlook for October to December reports Kentucky has about a 40% to 50% likelihood of above normal temperatures for the three-month period.
October’s monthly temperature outlook indicates Western Kentucky has a 40% to 50% chance of above normal temperatures, and the commonwealth’s central region has a 33% to 40% chance. Eastern Kentucky has roughly equal chances of above or below normal temperatures, NWS reports.
Do you have a question about Kentucky weather for our service journalism team? We’d like to hear from you. Fill out our Know Your Kentucky form or email ask@herald-leader.com.
This story was originally published October 21, 2022 at 6:00 AM.
