Tornado Alley shifting into Kentucky? A meteorologist says it’s too soon to tell
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Multiple dead following severe weather in KY
A violent storm system ripped across Kentucky, destroying homes, businesses and at least one church. Multiple fatalities have been confirmed.
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At least 19 people are dead in Southeastern Kentucky after two tornadoes swept through the region.
Surveyors confirmed a tornado touched down in Russell County late Friday into early Saturday before moving into Pulaski County, leaving destruction in its wake. On Monday, surveyors also found evidence of a second tornado in Laurel County.
The damage, including flattened buildings, twisted power lines and smashed cars, may remind some Kentuckians of the Western Kentucky tornado outbreak of December 2021, though these latest storms are much smaller in scope.
For fatigued Kentuckians, it marks yet another disaster after rounds of flooding in February and early April killed 29 people in the state, including two children. It brings the total death toll for punishing storms to at least 48 in Kentucky this year.
Given the frequency of tornadoes in recent years, some Kentuckians may be wondering if Tornado Alley is shifting eastward into the Bluegrass State. The system that spawned in Missouri Friday and brought destruction to Kentucky was what one meteorologist described as the “perfect storm” for producing tornadoes.
To get at that question, we spoke with National Weather Service meteorologist Mark Jarvis, of the agency’s Louisville office. As is often the case with science, things are more complicated than they seem on the surface.
Here’s what to understand about recent tornado activity in Kentucky.
Is Kentucky in Tornado Alley?
No. The region is often loosely defined, but the core of Tornado Alley encompasses Midwestern states such as South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.
It’s worth noting Tornado Alley as a concept can often be misleading. As the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration explains, U.S. tornado threats shift between regions with the changing of the seasons. Tornadoes can occur in all 50 states and violent ones happen outside of what we think of as “Tornado Alley” every year.
Is Tornado Alley shifting eastward into Kentucky?
According to Jarvis, the answer is no. There simply isn’t enough evidence yet to suggest that’s definitively happening. More research is needed, Jarvis told the Herald-Leader in a Saturday morning call.
“Tornado Alley really hasn’t shifted east at all,” Jarvis said. “It’s still a region in the central United States where you have tornadoes that are more frequent and more intense, and that’s because of the geographic location.”
Jarvis said there has been some uptick in tornadoes across the Deep South in places like Mississippi and Alabama, states that are typically grouped into the colloquial “Dixie Alley” for frequent and strong tornado activity. That said, Kentucky isn’t among the states included in Dixie Alley.
Storms and severe weather are not uncommon for Kentucky during the spring and fall months, particularly between March and late May in the spring and October to November in the fall, Jarvis said.
Which Kentucky counties see the most tornadoes?
In Kentucky, the counties that tend to see the most tornadoes are in the western half of the state, particularly west of Interstate 165, formerly named the Natcher Parkway, Jarvis said.
That’s not to say there aren’t “hot spots” for tornado activity outside of Western Kentucky. Tornadoes can occur in any place where conditions are favorable to their formation, particularly areas that see supercell thunderstorms, which are strong thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and the most powerful tornadoes.
Kentucky State Climatologist Jerald Brotzge notes the question can be a tricky one to answer, given there are generally more tornado reports in more populated areas.
“There’s a significant population bias in the tornado statistics,” Brotzge pointed out in an email to the Herald-Leader.
According to Brotzge, records from the 1800s through to 2024 (and not including these most recent storms), show the top Kentucky counties with the most tornadoes are:
- Christian - 58
- Calloway - 44
- Graves - 42
- Hardin - 41
- Warren - 33
- Daviess - 32
- Jefferson - 29
- Marshall - 29
- Henderson - 28
- McCracken - 28
- Pulaski - 28
As Brotzge explains, counties with higher population densities tend to drift toward the top of the list.
That said, weather authorities consistently stress tornadoes can and do occur in any place where conditions are favorable for their formation, which is why it’s important to remain weather aware and make a plan ahead of time.
Do you have a question about weather or climate for our service journalism team? We’d like to hear from you. Fill out our Know Your Kentucky form or email ask@herald-leader.com.
This story was originally published May 17, 2025 at 11:54 AM.
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