Will KY see a White Christmas this year? Here are the chances for Lexington, beyond
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- Forecasters report December 2025 likely colder than normal, boosting snow odds.
- National Weather Service estimates white Christmas probability near 28–33%.
- Historical data show about 20 Kentucky Christmases with snow since 1872.
Last Christmas left snow lovers disappointed, but forecasters this year are pointing to a colder-than-normal December that’s boosting the probability of a white Christmas in Kentucky this year.
One National Weather Service forecaster reports it could be 10 to 15% more likely.
To be clear, snowfall cannot be reliably predicted by weather scientists beyond a few days in advance. Our atmosphere is a chaotic system, and even small variations in storm track, temperature and moisture can create dramatic shifts difficult to anticipate. That’s why you should always be skeptical of long-term “forecasts.”
With that in mind, here’s a general look at what to expect in December, including why snow lovers have some reason to be optimistic.
How often does it snow on Christmas in Kentucky?
A white Christmas in Kentucky — which the NWS defines as at least 1 inch of snow on the ground Christmas morning — is uncommon in the state but not extremely rare.
“Since 1872, there have been roughly 20 times where we had snow on the ground on Christmas Day. The most recent occurrences were in 2020 and 2022. Prior to that, we have to go back to 2010,” Mark Jarvis, senior meteorologist with the agency’s office in Louisville, explained in an email Nov. 26.
Christmas of 2022 was defined by an arctic blast that brought wind chills of minus 30 degrees Farenheit in some parts of Kentucky. That’s not the norm for the state.
In 2020, Lexington saw a light snowfall on Christmas, but only about half an inch.
For Lexington’s snowiest Christmas, we have to go back to before World War II. On Christmas Day 1935, the city got 6.5 inches of snow. That’s also when it recorded its deepest snow cover on record of 7 inches.
Historically, Kentucky’s eastern edge has the greatest shot at a white Christmas.
“The southeastern mountains of Kentucky, along the Virginia border, have the highest probability of a white Christmas. Their historical probabilities are between 25-50%,” Jarvis told the Herald-Leader. “This is mainly due to their higher elevation and typical colder temperatures.”
How likely is a White Christmas in Kentucky in 2025?
Lexington recorded no snowfall Christmas Day 2024, when the temperature reached 55 degrees, with a low of 44. Ahead of last Christmas, the NWS outlook anticipated warmer-than-average temperatures with only brief periods of colder weather.
Still, several forecasters say this December is shaping up to be different, and there are some early signs we could see a greater chance for snow on Christmas this year.
“December 2025 is likely to end up colder than normal for the state,” Jarvis wrote, adding that current long-term model forecasts suggest a colder pattern in the area will continue into December.
“Initially, Kentucky will see periods of up and down temperatures for the first couple of weeks of December,” Jarvis wrote. “There are strong indications from the long range computer models that by mid to late December, a much colder pattern will gradually take hold across the central and eastern US. If current forecasts are correct, the core of the coldest weather may settle into the Ohio Valley near the Christmas holidays.”
Considering the colder-than-normal outlook for December and previous colder Decembers, “Our odds of a white Christmas would increase by 10-15%.”
“For December 2025, this would indicate that there is roughly a 28-33% chance that we could have a white Christmas,” Jarvis told the Herald-Leader.
WKYT Chief Meteorologist Chris Bailey also recently projected Christmas snowfall for Lexington.