What are the chances Central Kentucky will have a white Christmas? See snow outlook.
It’s a scene straight out of classic holiday movies: neighborhoods lit up with lights and blanketed with fluffy snow just in time for opening presents Christmas morning.
While light snow and snow squalls were in the forecast this week for Central Kentucky, the fantasy of a white Christmas is likely out of reach this year, if a recent outlook from the National Weather Service in Louisville is any indication.
It’s worth noting snowfall cannot be reliably predicted by weather scientists beyond a few days in advance, so be skeptical of any long-term “forecasts” you see for snow. With that in mind, here’s a general outlook of what to expect for Christmas in Lexington and Central Kentucky this year.
Will Central Kentucky see a white Christmas in 2024?
According to a recent outlook for December from the NWS Louisville office, the chance of a white Christmas is low for Central Kentucky. For context, the agency defines a white Christmas as “having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at 7 a.m. local time Christmas Day.”
This year, the NWS in Louisville is putting that probability at less than 10% for the central part of the Bluegrass State.
That’s in line with the historical trend for most of Kentucky, which according to one National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration map, lies between a 0 to 10% chance of snow Christmas Day. The only exceptions are parts of Northern and far Eastern Kentucky, where the probability ranges between 10 and 25%.
What’s driving this? According to the NWS outlook, “the combination of expected warmer-than-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation suggests a lower likelihood of heavy snows for the remainder of December.”
That does not rule out cold snaps and light snows, however. The NWS in Louisville notes, “it’s important to remember that even minor snow accumulations can cause problems, especially if they occur at inopportune times, such as during a weekday rush hour.”
Here are some other takeaways from the outlook:
There’s a high confidence in warmer-than-average temperatures for the rest of December, with only occasional and brief periods of colder weather expected.
There’s a fair chance of wetter-than-normal weather Christmas week. Still, the month as a whole is expected to be drier, though not enough to cause drought.
Forecasters have moderate to high confidence in below-average snowfall for the rest of December.
Colder, below-normal temperatures are favored in early to mid-January.
The last time Lexington experienced a white Christmas was in 2022, and prior to that, in 2020.
The Christmas weather in 2022 was defined by an arctic blast that saw wind chills in some parts of Kentucky drop to minus 30 degrees Fahrenheit, so it’s a bit of an outlier.
In 2020, there was a light snowfall of half an inch on Christmas Day in Lexington.
Do you have questions about weather in Kentucky for our service journalism team? We want to help. Send an email to us at ask@herald-leader.com or submit them with the Know Your Kentucky form below.
This story was originally published December 12, 2024 at 6:00 AM.