Will Central KY get hit with another winter storm? Here’s the outlook for the week
If you’re feeling fed up with the intractable snow, ice and cold temperatures that have gripped Lexington for weeks now, a forecaster from the National Weather Service has some bad news.
“Winter is not done by a long shot,” Mark Jarvis, a meteorologist with the agency’s Louisville station told the Herald-Leader Friday.
The latest NWS forecast calls for gradually warming temperatures early next week that will reach almost 60 degrees Fahrenheit by Tuesday, Feb. 10. However, Jarvis told the Herald-Leader in an emailed statement Friday that significant melting will not occur until the afternoon of Monday, Feb. 9, when dewpoints reach above freezing.
Additionally, forecasters are watching for another potential storm that could arrive Valentine’s Day weekend, Jarvis said, though it’s too early to say if it will bring snow.
Meteorologist Chris Bailey is also watching for a storm system that weekend after an expected cold front sweeps into the region by Wednesday, Feb. 11, he noted in his Friday forecast update.
Overall, “there remains strong agreement that a colder pattern will emerge for the end of February and will likely linger through much of March,” Jarvis told the Herald-Leader.
How likely is another winter storm in February?
There are several signals to look to.
If the latest outlook from the nation’s Climate Prediction Center is any indication, Kentucky is leaning toward warmer and wetter conditions between Feb. 11 to 15. That’s also true for a longer-term outlook between Feb. 13 to 19.
Temperatures will continue to moderate later this weekend and into next week, Jarvis said Friday.
“It’s still too early to say whether this one [the Valentine’s Day storm system] will be a rain or snow maker, but the pattern aloft may produce a pretty good east-coast snow storm,” Jarvis wrote to the Herald-Leader.
After Valentine’s Day, the overall pattern will likely skew colder, Jarvis said.
“I think we’ll see a pattern of up and down temps for a bit, but there remains strong agreement that a colder pattern will emerge for the end of February and will likely linger through much of March,” he told the Herald-Leader. “Winter is not done by a long shot.”
The Climate Prediction Center outlook for Feb. 14 to 27 aligns with this view. It’s leaning toward above-normal precipitation and below-normal temperatures.
It’s worth noting the Climate Prediction Center’s outlooks are not forecasts. They offer a look at long-range, probabilistic trends. In the case of the Feb. 14 to 27 outlook, Kentucky is shaded with a pale blue that indicates a 33 to 40% chance of below-normal temperatures.
In an earlier, Jan. 29 email, Jarvis wrote he expects conditions to favor a period of active weather across the region.
“Overall, the probability of another significant snow storm is better than average, though I would prefer to say that our overall probability of another significant winter storm (emphasizing a wintry mix) is higher than normal. Probability wise, I’d say that there is a 50-60% chance that we’ll see another significant storm sometime in February (probably in the back half of the month),” Jarvis wrote.
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