What’s the weather forecast for Kentucky Derby weekend? Here’s what to know
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- NWS forecasts partly sunny conditions and a high of 61°F for Derby Saturday.
- Seven-day forecast shows no rain for Louisville on Kentucky Derby race day.
- Stalled cold front and southern Canada airflow will keep temperatures below average.
It has rained on each of the last four Kentucky Derby race days, according to the National Weather Service, but an early forecast for this Saturday projects for that streak will come to an end.
The Kentucky Derby is scheduled to take place Saturday, May 2, at Churchill Downs in Louisville. The NWS’ seven-day forecast for Louisville predicts partly sunny conditions on Saturday with a high temperature of 61 degrees.
As of Tuesday morning, there was no rain in the forecast for Saturday.
But the predicted high temperature is well below the average for Louisville on May 2, which is 74 degrees. That’s because a stalled cold front and airflow from southern Canada will keep temperatures below average for several days, including the day of the Run for the Roses, according to the NWS.
A cold front behind Monday night’s severe storms will stall Tuesday morning near the Ohio River. The NWS said the front will push through the region after Wednesday’s rain showers, dropping the high temperatures into the 60s and low temperatures in the 40s.
Cold air from southern Canada will keep temperatures below average for several days, according to the NWS. Another weak cold front will pass through the region Friday and drop the temperatures a few more degrees.
Clouds are expected to persist Saturday morning before the sun partly breaks out later in the day, according to the NWS. The coldest low temperature of the week will take place Saturday night, and there are slight chances for frost patches Sunday morning.
The projected low temperature Saturday night in Louisville is 39 degrees, according to the NWS’ forecast.
The southern Canada airflow is cease after Saturday, and temperatures will climb back to normal levels, according to the NWS. The projected high temperature Monday in Louisville is 72 degrees.
The weather for Kentucky Oaks race day, one day before the Derby, is also projected to be pleasant. The NWS forecast predicts a high temperature of 64 degrees and partly sunny conditions Friday in Louisville.
Weather history on Kentucky Derby race day
The last time it was sunny with no rain on Kentucky Derby race day was 2021, when temperatures peaked in the mid-70s on Mandaloun’s victorious Run for the Roses.
Mandaloun was named the winner of the 147th Kentucky Derby after Medina Spirit, who beat Mandaloun by a half-length, was disqualified for failing a post-race drug test. The horse’s trainer, Bob Baffert, was later suspended from Churchill Downs for two years.
It was the first Kentucky Derby disqualification for medication since Dancer’s Image in 1968.
Since that historic race in 2021, it has rained at least a trace amount during each of the past four Derby days, according to the NWS. Last year it rained 0.37 inches on race day, including 0.03 inches in the afternoon/evening.
Last year’s high temperature on race day was 65 degrees, which was only the fourth time in the past 12 years the temperature did not reach the 70s.
Of the 150 Runs for the Roses, it has rained 72 times at some point during race day, according to the NWS.
