Kenny Payne’s Cards beaten badly again. Is Louisville getting better or beyond repair?
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Game day: No. 19 Kentucky 86, Louisville 63
Click below for more of the Herald-Leader’s and Kentucky.com’s coverage of Saturday’s men’s basketball game between Kentucky and Louisville in Rupp Arena.
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In the lead-up to a Kentucky-Louisville rivalry game that was without its usual luster, one storyline persisted: Kenny Payne’s return to Rupp Arena to face the Wildcats.
Not only was Payne returning to face the school where he previously spent 10 seasons as an assistant coach and associate head coach — helping Kentucky win its most recent national title in the process — he was returning to coach against John Calipari, the man he coached under.
Given the lackluster on-court product that both the Cardinals and Wildcats have produced this season, this storyline was all that was left in terms of a compelling aspect to Saturday’s game.
Kentucky (9-4) was expected to win decisively, and it did, 86-63. Louisville (2-12) was expected to look inept, and for most stretches it did.
What can be extrapolated from a game where everything largely went to script?
And specific to Louisville, what can another heavy defeat in a season full of them — this time to a hated rival — say about the future?
What are the main issues with Louisville basketball?
Calipari and Payne are the main protagonists in this story, but neither of them is served better by being honest about the situation facing the Cardinals program.
Repeatedly in the build-up to Saturday’s game, as well as in its aftermath, Calipari spoke glowingly about the the coaching job Payne has done with the Cardinals.
“Watch the games. Their team is getting better,” Calipari said during a Friday afternoon press conference. “They play hard. He’s trying different things defensively. You can see, if you coach, what he’s doing.”
For his part, Payne praised the physicality of Kentucky despite the Cats suffering a 14-point defeat at Missouri to begin SEC play.
“People are looking at them and saying, ‘They’re down.’ They’re not down from what I watched,” Payne said Friday.
So with the knowledge that neither side is likely to provide an accurate assessment of the other, let’s take a stripped-down look at what’s plaguing the Cardinals, 14 games into Payne’s tenure as head coach.
Talent gap
To put it frankly, Louisville does not have enough high-major, Division I talent to expect success, especially with the learning curve expected for a variety of Louisville coaches in new roles: U of L’s head coach, associate head coach, two assistant coaches, director of player development and strength and conditioning coach are all in their first seasons in these roles at U of L.
The Cardinals swung and missed on several big-name players in the transfer portal, and the addition of sophomore forward Brandon Huntley-Hatfield alone isn’t close to enough for a roster that lost serviceable, if not spectacular, players like Noah Locke, Jarrod West and Malik Williams.
Few U of L players have the ability to initiate offense or create their own shot: Senior guard El Ellis is in that small group, which is the reason why he led Louisville in most major offensive statistical categories on Saturday, ranging from shots attempted (16) and points (23) to free-throws attempted (10).
With four steals, Ellis was also one of the most impactful players on defense against the Wildcats, although all of U of L’s frontcourt players struggled to contain Jacob Toppin and Oscar Tshiebwe.
“In order to play against a kid like (Tshiebwe), a player like that, you better be ready for a war,” Payne said. “He brought it to us, it put us on our heels. At times, it looked like he reacted twice before we reacted once. I’m very disappointed in that.”
Several questions during Louisville’s 12-minute postgame press conference Saturday were dedicated to whether or not players were responding to what’s being asked of them from an effort and toughness standpoint.
Payne also admitted that it’s a struggle to have his team properly execute the concepts and plays that are drilled in practice and drawn up during games.
That’s not where you want to be midway through a season.
Three-point shooting among worst in nation
A particularly bad part of Louisville’s already bad offense is from behind the three-point line.
The Cardinals entered Saturday’s game ranked 272nd in the country in three-point shooting percentage at 31.91%.
That number fell to 31% flat (which would be 305th in the nation) after U of L shot 2-for-13 (15.4%) from distance against Kentucky.
Making this statistic even more remarkable is the fact that two Louisville players — Jae’Lyn Withers and JJ Traynor — are shooting better than 38% on their three-point attempts.
An offense that struggles to score overall (61.5 points per game) has demonstrated minimal ability to catch lightning in a bottle and get hot from deep, a tried and true method for teams overmatched talent-wise to steal wins.
Lack of competitive games
It’s one thing to lose a string of close games — something Louisville did to start the season — and use that experience as a jumping-off point, a way to come together with resolve to turn those results in your favor.
That hasn’t happened, largely because Louisville has not played any close games since.
The Cardinals lost their first three games of the season by one point each, all in excruciating fashion.
Their remaining losses have been by the following totals: 26, 32, 19, 25, 27, 22, 8 (to Lipscomb), 12 and 23 (Kentucky).
These results don’t cause momentum to die, they cause apathy to begin.
When asked Saturday what assures him that Louisville is continuing to improve as a basketball team, Payne pointed to growth from the first practice of the season.
“We are making strides. I can’t sit here and tell you that we’re going to go out and win the next 20 in a row, 10 in a row, whatever,” Payne said. “I can just tell you every day I’m pushing these guys to get better, and they’re trying.”
Recruiting outlook is bleak
Maybe the most alarming part of all of this for Cardinals fans is the apparent lack of help on the way.
Louisville’s two commits in the class of 2023 are a pair of small forwards: Kaleb Glenn (originally from Louisville and the No. 64 player in the 247Sports Composite) and Curtis Williams Jr. (No. 67).
Louisville struck out with the biggest names it pursued in the 2023 recruiting class, AJ Johnson, Isaiah Miranda and DJ Wagner among them.
The Cardinals already have a commit in the backcourt in the class of 2024 with point guard TJ Robinson, but the 247Sports Composite only has him ranked as the No. 156 player nationally in the class.
U of L lost another notable recruiting battle last week when Elliot Cadeau — who is ranked by the 247Sports Composite as the top point guard in the 2024 recruiting class — announced he would be going to North Carolina, after Louisville had made his final list of six schools.
On Friday, in a comment that could be applied to both Kentucky and Louisville, Calipari spoke about the difficulties of coaching in a fishbowl environment.
“It’s easy when you’re winning,” Calipari said. “The real coaching step up is when you’re up against it and things aren’t going right, and you’ve got the avalanche around you.”
Payne is in the avalanche now.
And while the NCAA won’t further blanket him with snow following Louisville’s Independent Accountability Resolution Process (IARP) decision in November, it’s still unclear how much time Payne will have to come out on the other side.
Next game
Syracuse at Louisville
When: 7 p.m. Tuesday
TV: ESPNU
Records: Syracuse 9-5 (2-1 ACC), Louisville 2-12 (0-3)
This story was originally published December 31, 2022 at 6:12 PM.
