Here’s what experts are saying about NCAA Tournament bubble heading into selection show

Selection Sunday is here and, as they seemingly always say, the NCAA Tournament bubble is the weakest in memory. Only this year, it might actually be true.

When the selection committee finalizes the field at 6 p.m. EST on Sunday, the field of 68 will either feature more mid-majors than usual or more teams with a near-.500 record than usual. Some potential sleepers like the Belmont Bruins will be hoping for the former, while traditional powers like the Florida Gators and Indiana Hoosiers will hope for the latter.

The wide-range of resumes could make the 2019 field harder to predict than is typical, but let’s take a look at how some of the biggest bracketologists see the bubble shaking out and what BracketMatrix.com, an aggregator of all major bracketologists, has as the consensus.

Arizona State Sun Devils

Joe Lunardi/ESPN: Last Four In

Jerry Palm/CBS: Last Four In

Howie Schwab/FOX: Last Four In

Matrix: No. 11 seed

Arizona State seemed much closer to a lock before the Oregon Ducks upset the Washington Huskies in the Pac-12 Conference championship. As bad as the Pac-12 was this season, can the selection committee justify giving the conference three teams? The committee probably has to.

Belmont Bruins

Lunardi: First Four Out

Palm: First Four Out

Schwab: Last Four In

Matrix: First Four Out

Belmont and the Murray State Racers were even all year atop the Ohio Valley Conference, which is typically a one-bid league. Murray State won the conference championship because of All-American point guard Ja Morant, but the Bruins proved their a well-rounded team that can play with anyone. If the committee favors mid-majors this year to middling major-conference teams, Belmont will be in.

Clemson Tigers

Lunardi: Next Four Out

Palm: Out

Schwab: Out

Matrix: First Four Out

Clemson was in the “others receiving votes” section of the final Top 25 of the regular season after ending the year with a win against the Syracuse Orange, but the Tigers blew an 18-point lead to the North Carolina State Wolfpack in a 59-58 loss in the first round of the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament. It might have been a devastating blow to Clemson, which finished ninth in the ACC and only beat one ranked team all season.

Florida Gators

Lunardi: Last Four Byes

Palm: No. 10 seed

Schwab: No. 9 seed

Matrix: No. 10 seed

Florida probably punched its ticket with an upset of the LSU Tigers in the Southeastern Conference tournament. The Gators then nearly beat the Auburn Tigers in the SEC semifinals before a confounding no-call at the buzzer robbed them of a chance at game-tying free throws.

Indiana Hoosiers

Lunardi: First Four Out

Palm: Out

Schwab: First Four Out

Matrix: First Four Out

Indiana is the flipside of the Belmont predicament. If the selection committee believes in picking talented major-conference programs, the Hoosiers and star shooting guard Romeo Langford could get in because they finished the regular season strong. Ultimately, a 17-15 overall record will likely doom them.

North Carolina State Wolfpack

Lunardi: First Four Out

Palm: Out

Schwab: First Four Out

Matrix: First Four Out

North Carolina State’s resume will be polarizing. The Wolfpack has nine wins against Quadrant 1 and 2 teams in the new NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, but ranked dead last in Division I in nonconference strength of schedule.

St. John’s Red Storm

Lunardi: Last Four In

Palm: Last Four In

Schwab: First Four Out

Matrix: No. 11 seed

St. John’s spent much of the early part of the season ranked thanks to a 14-1 start. The Red Storm, however, finished just seventh in the Big East Conference and lost five of its last seven games. Half the teams ahead of them in the Big East standings are on the bubble, too.

TCU Horned Frogs

Lunardi: Last Four In

Palm: Last Four In

Schwab: Last Four In

Matrix: No. 11 seed

The depth of the Big 12 Conference should get TCU in despite a stretch last in the season when the Horned Frogs lost six of seven. Season sweeps of the Big 12 tournament-champion Iowa State Cyclones and the bubble-bound Texas Longhorns are the key.

Temple Owls

Lunardi: Last Four In

Palm: No. 10 seed

Schwab: Last Four In

Matrix: No. 11 seed

Temple finished tied with the Tournament-lock Central Florida Knights in the American Athletic Conference standings, but an upset loss to the Wichita State Shockers in the first round of the American tournament has the Owls on the bubble.

Texas Longhorns

Lunardi: First Four Out

Palm: Out

Schwab: First Four Out

Matrix: Next Four Out

Texas is an extreme rarity in bubble circles. The Longhorns are just 16-16 yet viewed as a potential Tournament team because of good nonconference wins against the North Carolina Tar Heels and Purdue Boilermakers, and the overall strength of the Big 12. No team has ever gotten in as an at-large with a record of .500 or worse.

This story was originally published March 17, 2019 at 2:55 PM with the headline "Here’s what experts are saying about NCAA Tournament bubble heading into selection show."