Handicapping the Belmont Stakes: Can anyone defeat early Derby favorite Tiz the Law?
With the coronavirus pandemic postponing the Kentucky Derby from the first Saturday in May to the first Saturday in September, the revamped Triple Crown calendar begins this weekend with a different look.
The Belmont Stakes will be the first race in the 2020 Triple Crown series, and Saturday’s 152nd running of the classic will be at a distance of 1 ⅛ miles, instead of the usual 1 ½ test for 3-year-olds.
Some recent injuries — most notably to Charlatan, Maxfield and Nadal — have muddled the Derby picture, leaving Tiz the Law as the most likely, as of now, favorite in September. He’s the 6-5 morning-line favorite for Saturday’s Belmont Stakes, and another impressive performance there would only solidify his standing at the top of this 3-year-old crop.
Here’s a closer look at each contender in Saturday’s race, along with some predictions.
1. Tap It to Win
Odds: 6-1
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Mark Casse
The late addition of the front-running Fore Left might have the biggest effect on Tap It to Win, who was mighty impressive on the lead in his last start — a 5-length wire-to-wire victory at Belmont Park — and looked to be the most logical pacesetter in a race largely lacking in early speed. The son of Tapit had a dreadful end to his 2-year-old campaign — finishing 10th and last in two separate October races at Keeneland and Churchill Downs — but returned to the track off a nearly seven-month layoff and has won both of his races as a 3-year-old. His 97 Beyer in his most recent race — his first under jockey John Velazquez — is the second-best in this field, and he could be in the mix at the end if he can avoid a speed duel in the early going.
2. Sole Volante
Odds: 9-2
Jockey: Luca Panici
Trainer: Patrick Biancone
Sole Volante likely won’t even be on the TV screen by the time the field gets settled in the backstretch Saturday, but he’ll probably be around at the end. This deep closer has been at least 8 ½ lengths back in the early going in all six of his career starts, a record that includes four victories and no finish worse than third place. The son of Karakontie announced his presence on the Kentucky Derby trail with an impressive rally from 15 lengths back in the Sam F. Davis Stakes in February before a runner-up finish the next month in the Tampa Bay Derby. His most recent start was just last week — another come-from-behind victory with a pace that perfectly suited his running style — and he’ll attempt to win the Belmont with just a 10-day layoff, an interesting strategy.
3. Max Player
Odds: 15-1
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Trainer: Linda Rice
Max Player won the Withers Stakes in just his third career start Feb. 1, and then the coronavirus pandemic shuffled Rice’s plans. The son of Honor Code was originally scheduled to run in the Wood Memorial, but that staple of the Derby prep season was canceled. A start in the Matt Winn at Churchill was also considered, but Rice instead decided to keep Max Player in New York and wait for the Belmont, which will make for a layoff of 4 ½ months — the longest in this 10-horse field. Making a major impact in this race seems like a lot to ask.
4. Modernist
Odds: 15-1
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Trainer: Bill Mott
Trained by last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Modernist won the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes in February but wasn’t much of a factor in the Louisiana Derby a month later, finishing behind Wells Bayou and Ny Traffic in that race. He turned in a bullet workout over the Belmont Park track this past weekend, but Modernist — a son of Uncle Mo — would need to take a major step forward Saturday. His speed figures are among the lowest in this field, and others seem to have more upside moving forward.
5. Farmington Road
Odds: 15-1
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Farmington Road — the son of 2009 Florida Derby winner Quality Road — likes to come from well off the pace, but he hasn’t completed such a rally since breaking his maiden in January, a race that still counts as his only victory in six career starts. Most recently, he finished fourth in the Arkansas Derby, coming home 7 lengths behind Nadal and 2 ½ lengths behind Finnick the Fierce, who finished a well-beaten third in a high-profile allowance race at Churchill Downs last weekend. He’s another that will need a major step forward Saturday, and it’s difficult to see him out-closing Sole Volante or passing up Tiz the Law in the stretch.
6. Fore Left
Odds: 30-1
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
A last-minute entry into this Belmont field, Fore Left most recently won the UAE 2000 Guineas in Dubai, employing a front-running style for a wire-to-wire victory with the UAE Derby as the next step to Louisville. That race was canceled, and O’Neill — originally expecting to enter Fore Left in Saturday’s Grade 1, 7-furlong Woody Stephens at Belmont — picked this Triple Crown race instead. The son of Twirling Candy might be the early speed Saturday, but it would be a surprise if he can hold on in the stretch. Just one of Fore Left’s nine career starts has gone longer than a mile — a seventh-place finish in the American Pharoah Stakes last fall — and a trio of competitors was gaining fast in the final strides of the 2000 Guineas, which was run more than four months ago.
7. Jungle Runner
Odds: 50-1
Jockey: Reylu Gutierrez
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Yet another contender who will be coming from the back of the pack — if he comes at all — Jungle Runner has shown nothing in 2020 to encourage confidence in Saturday’s race. Since a victory on Nov. 1, he’s finished no better than fourth place in four starts, the most recent of which was an eighth-place showing at 60-1 odds in one of the runnings of the Arkansas Derby. (He finished 22 lengths behind Charlatan in that one). The son of Candy Ride has finished at least 14 lengths behind the winner in each of his last four starts, and his speed numbers are the bottom of the barrel in this field. He’s the longest shot on the morning line for good reason.
8. Tiz the Law
Odds: 6-5
Jockey: Manny Franco
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Tiz the Law — the presumptive Kentucky Derby favorite going into this weekend — has done no wrong in 2020 and returns to the track that was home to the highlight of his 2-year-old campaign, a 4-length victory in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes last fall. The son of on-the-rise sire Constitution won the Grade 3 Holy Bull and Grade 1 Florida Derby in impressive manner at Gulfstream Park this year, and this should be the next step on his road to the Derby. The New York-bred colt likes to sit just off the pace and pounce in the stretch, and that’s the sight that should be expected Saturday afternoon.
9. Dr Post
Odds: 5-1
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Dr Post’s most recent performance — a 1 ½-length victory in the $75,000 Unbridled Stakes — isn’t all that eye-popping on paper, but the film shows a courageous effort for a colt making just his third career start. The son of Quality Road was boxed in and bounced around for much of that 1 1/16-mile race before finally finding some room to run and galloping home to victory in the final stages. His BRIS speed rating of 104 in his previous start is second only to Tiz the Law in this Belmont field, and he seems to have both the talent and mettle to be a major player on the Kentucky Derby trail. We’ll see how he stacks up against top competition Saturday.
10. Pneumatic
Odds: 8-1
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Another contender with just three career starts going into this weekend, Pneumatic was last seen finishing a gritty third to Maxfield and Ny Traffic in last month’s Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill Downs. He won his first two career starts — both at Oaklawn Park this year — and seemingly has all the tools to take the next step and possibly emerge as a real contender in this somewhat muddled group of 3-year-olds. The son of Uncle Mo is likely to be sitting just off the leaders Saturday afternoon, and we’ll see if he’s ready to take that next step once the field hits the stretch and he has to deal with the likes of Tiz the Law and Sole Volante. He’s an intriguing addition to this field, but it might be a wee bit early to expect the breakout performance that will be necessary to win here.
Belmont Stakes picks
Tiz the Law is the obvious choice for win honors in this field, and — until he shows otherwise — the No. 1 pick for the Kentucky Derby later this year. Look for Dr Post to give him some fight in the stretch, earn a runner-up finish, and solidify himself as a true Derby contender. Sole Volante should be coming hard at the end, and he’ll remain one of the top players on the Derby trail.
If you’re looking for more of a long shot in what seems to be a chalky race, Max Player possesses plenty of talent, has been training well for Linda Rice, and could provide some major value coming off that long layoff.
Belmont Stakes
When: 5:42 p.m. Saturday
Where: Belmont Park in Elmont, N.Y.
TV: NBC-18
Distance: 1 1/8 miles
Purse: $1 million
Favorite: Tiz the Law (6-5)
Belmont Stakes field
The field for Saturday’s Belmont Stakes in post-position order with odds:
1. Tap It To Win (6-1)
2. Sole Volante (9-2)
3. Max Player (15-1)
4. Modernist (15-1)
5. Farmington Road (15-1)
6. Fore Left (30-1)
7. Jungle Runner (50-1)
8. Tiz the Law (6-5)
9. Dr Post (5-1)
10. Pneumatic (8-1)
