What Kentucky’s roster could look like next season if Cats follow NBA Draft advice
With just three basketball games remaining before the postseason, there’s not much time left for Kentucky’s players to make actual, competitive, on-the-court impressions on NBA scouts.
Not often do pro takes on a college prospect’s draft standing dramatically shift with such a small sample size. Of course, current college players can still wow league decision-makers at the NBA Combine or with impressive individual workouts, but it’s reaching the point in the season that changing minds too much will be an uphill battle.
So, what could UK’s roster look like next season if the current Wildcats follow the advice of one prominent NBA Draft analyst?
ESPN analyst and longtime NBA Draft-tracker Jonathan Givony spoke to the Herald-Leader a few days ago about most of Kentucky’s players and their outlook for the 2020 draft. It was assumed that freshman Tyrese Maxey (a projected lottery pick), sophomore Ashton Hagans (a possible first-round pick) and junior Nick Richards (a projected second-round pick) will all move on after this season. Nate Sestina, a graduate transfer, will also be out of eligibility.
That would leave five scholarship players remaining from this season’s team — sophomores EJ Montgomery and Immanuel Quickley, and freshmen Keion Brooks, Johnny Juzang and the injured Dontaie Allen — to join UK’s No. 1-ranked recruiting class, and Givony made a case for all of those current Cats to return to school.
If that happened — and it remains a big if — UK would likely challenge for the preseason No. 1 ranking in 2020-21, and John Calipari would have one of his most versatile rosters, in terms of both position and age, yet.
Such a scenario would mean no current players transferring after the season — Calipari has lost six players in such a manner over the past five recruiting classes — and no players turning pro only to go undrafted, which has happened to a few Wildcats in recent years.
Brooks, Juzang and Allen, who has still not played this season, are almost certainly staying in college for another year. Givony said that there’s been no buzz in NBA circles around Montgomery, who showed more flashes of promise in Tuesday’s win at Texas A&M but is apparently far from being mentioned on any 2020 draft boards.
Quickley is the wild card in this group. At the time of Givony’s comments, he wasn’t even listed on ESPN’s rundown of the Top 100 prospects for the 2020 draft. Those comments also came before his 26-point game against Florida and 30-point performance at Texas A&M, and Givony said before those games that Quickley was getting close to real draft consideration.
On Friday morning, ESPN updated its list and included Quickley at No. 60 overall. There are 60 total picks in the NBA Draft.
Givony noted, however, that NBA scouts still haven’t seen what Quickley can do as a point guard — his presumed position at the next level — and he’s unlikely to get an opportunity to show much of anything there this season with Hagans and Maxey on the roster.
It’s possible that Quickley is already doing enough — with his outside shooting and his defense — to warrant a spot in this year’s draft, but Givony said a college return and more point guard minutes could raise his stock even more.
Let’s say that happens. Here’s what UK’s roster could look like next season:
▪ Quickley and five-star point guard Devin Askew at the point. Two talented, unselfish, versatile players that can play on or off the ball, defend multiple positions, and share the court at the same time.
▪ Possible top-five national recruits Brandon Boston and Terrence Clarke, along with a sophomore Juzang and a healthy Allen, on the wing. All four project as above-average to elite offensive players, while Boston and Clarke have the ability to be dynamic defenders.
▪ A sophomore Brooks and high-upside recruit Cam’Ron Fletcher as bigger, possibly more physical wings that offer even more positional flexibility.
▪ A junior Montgomery with power forward recruits Isaiah Jackson (an elite post defender who runs the floor) and Lance Ware (an offensively gifted player whose game is rapidly improving) in the frontcourt.
The only thing really missing from that group would be a traditional, physical ‘5’ man, but such players are increasingly rare (and perhaps a good fit could still be found, either in center recruit Cliff Omoruyi or a graduate transfer). Montgomery, Ware and Jackson possess enough versatility to play two together, or there are plenty of talented guards and wings to play four at a time from that group.
Will those 11 players ultimately make up UK’s 2020-21 roster? Probably not. There are always surprises in the college basketball silly season, especially at Kentucky.
But this is one possibility that’s fun to think about.
Richards’ ‘feel for the game’
Including Nick Richards in ESPN’s mock draft for the first time this month — at No. 50 overall — Givony noted that no college player in the past 30 years has been drafted with an assist-plus-steal rate as low as the UK center’s has been this season.
That’s an interesting stat for Richards, who has been a force for UK but has a total of just seven assists and three steals in 28 games this season. Why are such numbers important for a center?
“I think those are the best indicators we have, statistically, of a player’s feel for the game. For his awareness and his ability to kind of read the game and make a split-second decision, either on offense or on defense,” Givony told the Herald-Leader. “It’s not a perfect measure, by any means.”
The draft analyst explained that Richards’ numbers could be a bit skewed due to his circumstances.
“The assist — it’s very dependent on your teammates,” he said. “I was watching the LSU game, and Nick made two or three very good passes to the weak side for a wide-open three that wasn’t converted. And you look at that say, ‘OK, he’s not completely (lost) as a passer.’ Even though he will turn it over a little bit against double teams. It’s not a perfect measure.
“And then on the steals, I think Kentucky players over the years have always been low on steals. It’s just a systematic thing for them. So I do think you need to take that with a grain of salt, to a degree. And that’s why we watch the games.”
Indeed, UK ranked ninth in the Southeastern Conference in steals in Richards’ first season, 10th in his second season, and last this season. The Cats’ current rate of 5.2 steals per game is tied for No. 299 nationally.
The UK defensive system doesn’t totally absolve Richards, though Givony also noted that he just started playing basketball as a teenager and continues to show overall improvement in his awareness, a positive sign for the future.
“You will see Nick getting lost in space, at times. And, off the ball, he’s not like the most instinctual, reactive guy. Which is interesting, because he’s an incredible shot-blocker. He’s very good in that regard,” Givony said. “When it comes to guarding in space, he can switch — that’s something he’s gotten a lot better with. But in terms of doing things like icing, hedging — like doing the more advanced things that you want to see — he’s gotten better, but I still think he has room for improvement there.”
Quickley for two
Anyone who has watched Immanuel Quickley play over the past two months — and especially the past two games — would likely think he’d be an NBA Draft pick this year.
Givony noted that Quickley is playing much more of a wing role for Kentucky, a spot he wouldn’t be as likely to play in the NBA due to his size: 6-3 and 188 pounds. Though his overall three-point numbers (42.9 percent) are tremendous, and he’s shown the ability to knock down big shots at crucial times, he’s been lacking inside the arc. Those two-point buckets — finishing at the rim, especially — will only get more difficult as Quickley finds more oversized competition at the next level, and Givony said he likely needs to improve those numbers, something that could come if he played more of a point guard role next season.
Going into Saturday’s game, Quickley was shooting just 41.2 percent on two-point shots. Compare that to the similarly positioned players currently in the second round of ESPN’s mock draft, and the results aren’t great.
Here are the two-point numbers for combo guards or shooting guards in that group: Michigan State’s Aarin Henry (49.3 percent), Charleston’s Grant Riller (55.5 percent), Baylor’s Jared Butler (46.3 percent), Louisiana State’s Skylar Mays (55.6 percent).
Five other players projected in ESPN’s second round are categorized as strictly point guards — Alabama’s Kira Lewis, UK’s Ashton Hagans, San Diego State’s Malachi Flynn, Kansas’ Devon Dotson, and Oregon’s Payton Pritchard — and only Hagans (46.0 percent) has a two-point rate of lower than 50 percent this season.
Quickley’s age
A well-established narrative is that the NBA Draft is often higher on upside than proven results, with general managers opting to go with younger players with ample potential over older players who have performed well in college.
That’s one reason — along with his stellar play of late — that’s been cited as to why Quickley might jump for the pros after this season. He’ll turn 21 years old eight days before the 2020 draft, which obviously means he’d be 22 on draft day next year if he sticks around for another season at UK.
Quickley was the oldest member of UK’s 2018 recruiting class — he’s about three weeks older than Ashton Hagans — and is actually two months older than Kevin Knox, a one-and-done player from the previous Kentucky class.
While most of ESPN’s projected first-round picks this year will still be in their teens on draft night, a total of nine will have already reached their 20s. Only two of those players — Dayton’s Obi Toppin and Michigan State’s Cassius Winston — will be 22 years old on draft night.
One other thing to keep in mind: the 2021 NBA Draft is expected to feature a more talented pool of players than this year’s draft.
Other NBA mock drafts
A rundown of UK players in some of the latest mock drafts:
▪ ESPN has Tyrese Maxey at No. 6 overall, Ashton Hagans at No. 36, and Nick Richards at No. 50.
▪ The Athletic’s most recent mock draft — updated Friday — has Maxey at No. 10 overall, Hagans at No. 45, and Richards at No. 54, with Immanuel Quickley making his debut at No. 40 on the board.
▪ NBADraft.net has Maxey at No. 22 overall, Hagans at No. 27, and Richards at No. 34.
▪ Sports Illustrated’s most recent (first-round only) mock draft has Maxey at No. 11 overall.
▪ CBS Sports writers Kyle Boone and Gary Parrish have Maxey at No. 5 and No. 8, respectively, while Parrish also places Hagans at No. 29 overall in the website’s first-round only mock drafts.
This story was originally published February 28, 2020 at 7:20 AM.
