Kentucky basketball mailbag: Is John Calipari’s time with the Cats nearing an end?
As this tumultuous Kentucky basketball season continues, we asked for your questions on UK’s team and the program’s future earlier this week.
There were plenty of good ones to choose from. Here’s the first installment of this UK basketball mailbag, focusing largely on John Calipari. (There will be more on UK recruiting and other issues with the current team later this week).
Will Cal be fired if this team can’t get over 10 wins?
No chance. Zero.
Kentucky came out of Wednesday night’s game against Georgia with a 4-9 record and 12 regular-season games remaining on the schedule (plus an additional league game that was postponed and has yet to be rescheduled). The Cats could lose all of those games, and their first game in the Southeastern Conference Tournament, and Calipari wouldn’t be fired.
Such a move would be a rather short-sighted decision, to put it mildly, during an unprecedented time that has had an incalculable, negative impact on Calipari’s ability to coach and develop this Kentucky team. It would also shortchange his decade-plus of winning basketball and major accomplishments as UK’s coach.
On-court accolades aside, Calipari is currently under contract through the end of the 2028-29 season. That’s eight more seasons of basketball beyond this one. Getting rid of the UK coach at any time during that contract — without “cause” (and, no, “losing games” doesn’t qualify as “cause”) — would mean Kentucky would be on the hook for 75 percent of Calipari’s contract, which amounts to about $8.5 million for each of the four seasons after this one and about $9 million for each of the four seasons after that.
Do the math, and that’s a lot of money. Tens of millions of dollars to pay someone not to coach a basketball team.
So, no, Cal is in no danger of being fired after this season, barring some unforeseen off-the-court issues. (“Cause,” for the record, would be things like major NCAA violations, professional or personal misconduct, etc).
It would likely take two or three seasons of losing basketball for UK getting rid of Calipari to even be a serious discussion. And that, too, is unexpected. (Prediction here is that the Cats will be back in the preseason Top 25 in 2021-22).
It’s highly likely that, when Calipari and Kentucky part ways, it will be the coach’s decision to do so. The new contract that he signed a couple of years ago isn’t really a “lifetime” contract — as it was often publicized to be — but it was one that basically ensured Calipari would leave the top job at UK on his own terms.
That brings us to the next question …
I hope he is, but will John Calipari be back next season?
Almost certainly, yes.
I don’t see Calipari walking away from what is basically his dream job after one bad season.
A Hall of Fame coach isn’t going to call it quits — after all the winning basketball and all the accolades — and leave on this note. (He’d be leaving lots of money on the table, as well).
Calipari isn’t getting fired. It’s difficult to see him as an NBA coach at this point in his career. It’s even more difficult to see him coaching at another school. And surely he’s not done coaching at 62 years old, which he turns next month.
This has obviously been as bad a UK basketball season as anyone has endured in a long, long time, but it’s come under unprecedented circumstances, much of which has been out of Calipari’s control.
As competitive as he is, and as prideful as he is, you’d think a season like this would only make him more hungry to win basketball games, not more likely to leave a job he’s worked his entire adult life to land.
It takes a certain amount of ego and pride to reach the levels of success that Calipari has reached. It would be a pretty big shock if he called it quits after this.
Do you think Cal’s time is slowly dwindling away in Lexington? Not saying I want it to happen, but it just feels like he doesn’t care anymore!
Sensing a theme here? There were so many questions related to Calipari’s job status and his future at Kentucky, as well as some comments from readers wishing he would simply retire.
As mentioned earlier, it’s almost certain that Calipari will be the head coach at UK next season.
What about beyond that?
Let’s make it clear, first off, that John Calipari still “cares” about Kentucky basketball, and he especially cares about the job he’s doing as the man in charge of the program. And he still clearly cares deeply about developing and preparing players for successful careers beyond college.
Maybe that doesn’t always come across. His comments at times this season have been flippant and dismissive. He’s frustrated. Losing sucks, especially when you’ve rarely had to deal with it on the level that Calipari is dealing with it now. But he wouldn’t be frustrated if he didn’t care, and he’s clearly still trying to find the right mix that can get this team over the hump and get them winning consistently. No one has given up on this season, and — even if an NCAA at-large bid seems nearly impossible now — a run in the SEC Tournament is still on the table.
Regarding his long-term future, Calipari is, again, under contract through the 2028-29 season. Will he make it that long? Probably not, but how many people truly thought he would be UK’s coach for that long when the contract was signed two years ago?
If he coached out the entirety of that contract, he would be 70 years old at the end of his run, and — more to the point — it would mark 20 seasons as Kentucky’s head coach. That’s a long time in the fishbowl that is UK basketball, made even longer by the current demands of recruiting and everything else that goes along with being Kentucky’s coach.
There is a clause in Calipari’s contract that he could initiate at any time starting in 2024 that would allow him to step down as UK’s coach and still get paid roughly $1 million a year to basically be an ambassador for the school’s athletics department. That’s a pretty good deal, and I could see him taking it at some point.
Bottom line is, things seem bad right now. To many fans, every Kentucky loss seems like the end of the world, and there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of hope that the Cats will turn it around in time to make a run in March (or whenever postseason basketball is played).
Once the world returns to some form of normal, so, too, I imagine, will Kentucky basketball.
If UK brings back some players from the current team (seems likely), and the lead-up to the 2021-22 season is a fairly normal one (we’re all hopeful), then UK will go into next season with high expectations yet again. Assuming Calipari gets a relatively normal offseason and preseason to prepare that squad, the victories should return. The angst over mounting losses will be replaced by nitpicking of sloppy play in November and December and too-close-for-comfort wins in SEC play. And all will be normal in the world of Kentucky basketball.
Cal mentioned watching the NBA bubble games and having ideas for offense last offseason. What ideas did he take and implement because I never saw an NBA team run three bigs?
Hey, one of the few Calipari-related questions that didn’t have to do with his job status.
There are plenty of things going on this season beyond Calipari’s control, but there are also some legitimate criticisms to be made, and UK’s offensive approach is certainly high on that list.
To answer the question … who the heck knows?
Anyone who has watched Kentucky play this season — and watches any pro ball at all — wouldn’t mistake whatever the Cats have been doing for an NBA offense. The shooting has been abysmal, the spacing has been even worse, and, yes, the dreaded “three-big lineup” has been trotted out at times, clogging the court even more.
A couple of weeks ago, top ESPN draft analyst Jonathan Givony had this to say regarding the falling NBA stock of freshman guard Brandon Boston:
“The hope among optimists is that Boston’s inability to show anything beyond small glimmers of what made him such a coveted prospect in high school lies more in Kentucky’s archaic offense, poorly constructed roster and his own lack of physical strength than deal-breaking talent shortcomings.”
Yikes.
“Archaic” isn’t how you want your offense to be described by national analysts. Especially when you’re trying to recruit elite prospects, and rival recruiters can easily pass along statements like that one to high school players and their parents. (It happens).
Givony’s might be a harsh criticism, but it’s not unfair. UK’s offense has been incredibly difficult to watch this season. (And in other recent seasons before this one).
Again, some of this is beyond Calipari’s control. There are enough issues that arise when trying to get a roster filled with new players on the same page during a pandemic. Installing a brand new offensive approach at the same time would be, I imagine, very difficult.
But some of these lineups — Jacob Toppin, Lance Ware and Olivier Sarr on the floor at the same time, for instance — don’t exactly scream “modern offense.” Obviously, a big issue with UK’s spacing comes from its lack of shooting. There’s still a legitimate confidence within the program that this could be a good shooting team. But the results sure haven’t been there — 28.4 percent from deep after 13 games — and until we actually see more shots go down consistently, all we can conclude is that this is a bad shooting team.
Whatever Calipari was watching in the bubble, it’ll be hard to implement it as long as the opposing defense can just feel comfortable collapsing in toward the basket. And until some shots start to fall, the ugly offensive performances are likely to continue.
BBN needs to support this team and our Hall of Fame coach. This is a season like no other, which certainly made it more difficult for Coach Cal to develop his team during a pandemic. Does BBN want to run him off for the poor start and before this year’s story is written? I would hope not! Secondly, get behind these kids. Keep in mind the expectations on our freshmen were set by adult “experts.” None of these kids put five stars behind their name. They just play basketball. If you want to get mad, get mad at the experts!
OK, that’s more of a comment than a question. But it only felt right to include it. For all the fan talk that Calipari might be on the way out (some of them outright wishing he would leave), it’s important to note that the UK coach has a majority of the fan base still behind him.
Everyone is frustrated, from Calipari to his young players to UK’s rabid fans. (It also hasn’t been a whole lot of fun for those who watch these games with an objective eye).
This comment — sent via email from Mike, a 1970 UK grad — illustrates the importance for everyone to take a step back, take a deep breath, take a look at the bigger picture.
In 11 previous seasons, Calipari led UK to a 330-77 record. A national championship, four Final Fours, SEC titles galore.
Yes, the basketball has been sloppy in November and December (and sometimes beyond), as new players — many of them freshmen — find their way. And the constant roster turnover has been an issue — and certainly a valid complaint — for Kentucky fans who want to feel a greater connection to the players.
Maybe some ongoing tweaks to recruiting and the overall roster-building approach will fix that. Maybe it won’t. We’ll see.
But it’s hard to argue with the winning.
Even over these past few years — with many viewing Kentucky as a program trending downward — there’s been an awful lot of winning. No, the Cats haven’t made the Final Four in six years. But they’ve had just one season with 10 or more losses in that stretch.
In the past three NCAA Tournaments, the Cats have advanced to the Elite Eight twice — both games coming down to the final possession with a trip to the Final Four on the line — and the Sweet Sixteen once. How many other teams have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen three times in the past three NCAA Tournaments and the Elite Eight twice in that span? One. Gonzaga.
Ultimately, success at Kentucky is judged on Final Fours and national titles. They’ve been lacking the past few seasons, sure, but it should surprise no one if Calipari is back there at any point in the near future.
The winning has been abundant, so be careful what you wish for.
Tubby Smith left UK — to the delight of many fans — about 15 years ago. The prize for those fans was two largely embarrassing seasons under Billy Gillispie.
This winter has been a difficult one, but there’s still plenty of reason for Kentucky basketball fans to think there will be plenty of victories in the program’s immediate future, with Calipari on the sidelines leading the way.
This story was originally published January 20, 2021 at 7:50 AM.
