What does Kentucky’s loss to Tennessee mean for UK’s NCAA Tournament seeding?
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Game day: No. 9 Tennessee 69, No. 5 Kentucky 62
Click below for more of the Herald-Leader’s and Kentucky.com’s coverage of Saturday’s men’s basketball game between Kentucky and Tennessee at the SEC Tournament in Tampa, Fla.
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The Kentucky Wildcats won’t be Southeastern Conference Tournament champions, but the 69-62 loss to Tennessee on Saturday afternoon shouldn’t do much to negatively affect UK’s NCAA fortunes.
The Cats came into the SEC semifinals with a realistic shot of nabbing a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but they likely needed a victory Saturday — possibly even a league tournament title — to claim one of those four spots in the March Madness bracket.
What does the loss to Tennessee mean for UK’s seeding?
It probably just puts them right back where they were heading into the SEC Tournament — a No. 2 seed.
Gonzaga and Arizona appear to be locks for two of the No. 1 seeds. The four teams thought to be in contention for the other two top seeds coming into the league tournaments were Auburn, Baylor, Kansas and Kentucky, with not a whole lot to separate their NCAA resumes.
UK, however, was No. 6 overall on most bracketology lists heading into this week. That means the Cats had more work to do than the other possible No. 1 seeds to actually claim one of those spots. They probably didn’t do enough (even though Auburn and Baylor lost earlier in league tourney play).
With the Tennessee loss, Kentucky dropped to 26-7 on the season and will finish 9-7 in the now-important Quad 1 games. Baylor was 10-5 in such games, with Auburn at 8-4 and Kansas at 11-5 heading into the Big 12 championship against Quad 1 opponent Texas Tech on Saturday night.
There’s not a ton of difference there — and the selection committee will obviously take several other metrics into consideration — but UK will clearly end with the lowest winning percentage of the four teams in that category.
In Quad 1A games — a stat reflecting the best of the best opponents — Kentucky will finish with a 3-6 record, compared to Auburn (3-3), Baylor (4-4) and Kansas (4-4 with a win Saturday; 3-5 with a loss). Again, UK would be last of the four in a key stat for the committee.
ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi had the Cats as the No. 5 overall team — behind Kansas and Baylor — heading into Saturday’s game. Lunardi said Saturday morning on ESPN that he would have Kentucky clinching the final No. 1 seed if the Cats beat Tennessee in the SEC semifinals — regardless of what happened Sunday — but Baylor would get it otherwise. He had Kansas penciled in as the other top seed.
Bracketville’s Dave Ommen moved Kentucky to the No. 4 spot on his NCAA Tournament seed list Saturday morning — with Kansas at No. 3 and Baylor at No. 5. Ommen said that if UK won the SEC Tournament, the final No. 1 seed should belong to the Wildcats.
“They may earn it either way — provided they beat Tennessee today in the SEC semifinals,” he added. “Baylor remains a strong option should UK slip.”
The Cats did indeed slip, and Ommen told the Herald-Leader at the end of the game Saturday that the loss to Tennessee likely means that Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas and Baylor will be the four No. 1 seeds.
The NCAA Tournament bracket will be revealed on CBS at 6 p.m. Sunday.
Kentucky a 2-seed?
UK shouldn’t fall far. The Cats have surely done enough to secure a No. 2 seed, and it appears that — if Baylor and Kansas do indeed get No. 1 seeds — Auburn, Kentucky and Duke would get three of the four No. 2 seeds. (With the other one likely going to Purdue, Tennessee or Villanova).
In this scenario, Gonzaga would be the No. 1 seed in the San Francisco region, Arizona would be the top team in the San Antonio region, and whichever Big 12 team the committee ranks highest — Baylor or Kansas — would be No. 1 in the Chicago region, with the other one going east to Philadelphia.
Among the 2-seeds in this scenario, whichever SEC team — Auburn or Kentucky — the committee ranked best would go to the Chicago region. The possibilities get a little murkier if Kentucky were to fall below Auburn and Duke on the seed list, but there doesn’t seem to be any realistic scenario in which the Wildcats would be shipped west to Gonzaga’s region.
What’s pretty clear is that the Cats will start the NCAA Tournament in Indianapolis on Thursday, claiming one of those closest-to-home spots based on their position on their projected overall seed list and geographical preference.
All of this will be settled by the end of the NCAA Selection Show on Sunday evening, and Kentucky’s first-round tipoff time will be announced later Sunday night.
This story was originally published March 12, 2022 at 5:57 PM.
