UK basketball has lost 10 games in a row against the spread. Here’s why that could matter.
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Game day: South Carolina 71, Kentucky 68
Click below for more of the Herald-Leader’s and Kentucky.com’s coverage of Tuesday night’s men’s basketball game between Kentucky and South Carolina in Rupp Arena.
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Kentucky basketball isn’t winning right now: Not on the scoreboard, and not in Las Vegas.
The latest setback for the Wildcats in what’s become a nightmare of a 2022-23 season came Tuesday night at home, with a shocking 71-68 defeat to SEC bottom-feeder South Carolina inside Rupp Arena.
The setback condemned Kentucky to a 10-6 overall record and a 1-3 record in SEC play.
But it also represented the 10th straight game that Kentucky failed to cover the betting spread.
According to Vegas Insider, the Cats are now 4-12 against the spread this season after the South Carolina game. The Wildcats were 20-point favorites against the Gamecocks.
UK has been on the wrong side of the Vegas line in 10 straight games.
The Wildcats have only covered the spread this season in the following games:
▪ vs. Howard (spread was -25, UK won by 32);
▪ vs. Duquesne (spread was -19, UK won by 25);
▪ vs. South Carolina State (spread was -39.5, UK won by 43);
▪ vs. North Florida (spread was -27.5, UK won by 40).
This means Kentucky hasn’t covered the spread in a game since Nov. 23.
All four instances of Kentucky covering the spread this season have come at home against clearly overmatched opponents during non-conference play.
According to the closing odds listed by Vegas Insider, the Wildcats have also lost three times this season (against Michigan State, Missouri and South Carolina) while being favorites to win the game.
While the mere act of covering or not covering the spread in a gambling sense doesn’t matter for John Calipari’s team, it does play a factor when you think about the “eye test” for members of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.
UK has been expected to win by large margins against subpar teams over the last two months, and has largely failed to beat those teams in convincing fashion.
Similarly, the Wildcats haven’t kept it remotely close when playing against either good opponents, or on the road this season.
UK has lost all three of its true road games this season (including the Gonzaga game) by at least 14 points.
Last Saturday’s 26-point loss at Alabama was the heaviest defeat the Cats have ever suffered against the Crimson Tide.
“I’m disappointed that we did not play better because I thought we were ready to play a good game on the road,” Calipari said after that loss. “We’re gonna have to prove at some point we can play on the road.”
Kentucky’s next chance to snap its streak against the spread comes Saturday afternoon, with another daunting road test at No. 5 Tennessee.
The Volunteers have been much better than UK against the spread this season, boasting a 9-7 record.
According to the Bart Torvik T-Rank Line, Tennessee is expected to win the game by 18.3 points.
This story was originally published January 11, 2023 at 11:44 AM.
