Here’s what the Florida game will mean for Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament hopes
With about 90% of its NCAA Tournament résumé already set, there’s not much this Kentucky basketball team can do to make a considerable move between now and Selection Sunday.
But Saturday afternoon in Rupp Arena will still provide a golden opportunity.
Going into the rematch with No. 5 Florida — the game is set for 4 p.m. ET on ESPN — the Cats are generally projected as a 6 or 7 seed for March Madness. This matchup against the Gators and next week’s SEC Tournament are all that’s left on the schedule, and Mark Pope’s team will enter the weekend at No. 28 in the WAB rankings.
That metric won’t match up exactly with a team’s spot on Selection Sunday — if it did, UK would be the final 7 seed at the moment — but it will be an important reference point for the NCAA Tournament selection committee, and the Cats can make a noticeable jump with a win Saturday.
Beating the Gators — a team that hasn’t lost since Jan. 24 — would result in a projected gain of .8 points in the WAB. Independent of other results this weekend, that would be enough to move Kentucky up six spots to No. 22 in the rankings, putting the Cats in the thick of the 5-seed conversation heading into the league tournament.
A loss, on the other hand, wouldn’t do too much damage at all, potentially not even moving UK off its current spot at No. 28 in the WAB. So it’ll be a high-reward, low-risk opportunity for Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament profile, and with no other SEC teams currently in the top 15 of the NCAA’s NET rankings, it’s possible the Cats won’t get a chance like this again in the conference tournament.
Pulling off an upset — UK opened as a 7.5-point underdog Friday — will be difficult. The Gators have won their last two games by 34 points each, and their 92-83 victory over Kentucky in Gainesville last month has been the closest result in their current 10-game winning streak.
Still, Pope’s squad has a shot to boost its résumé Saturday in Rupp.
Kentucky’s bracketology outlook
Several prominent bracketology boards were updated Friday, ahead of the final weekend of the regular season. Here’s a look at some of those projections and where they had the Cats:
- ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi projects Kentucky as the 6 seed in the Washington, D.C. regional, with the Cats playing the winner of a First Four game between Indiana and SMU in the first round. The most likely round of 32 opponent on that board would be 3-seeded Iowa State, and Lunardi’s bracket has UK in Oklahoma City for the first week of the tournament.
- The CBS Sports projections have Kentucky as the 7 seed in the Chicago regional, lined up to play 10-seeded UCF in the first round with a potential round of 32 matchup against 2-seeded Houston if the Cats can advance that far. That board does not project first-week sites.
- Sports Illustrated has Kentucky as the 6 seed in the Washington, D.C. regional and playing 11-seeded Ohio State in the first round. The most likely round of 32 matchup in that bracket would be a date with 3-seeded Iowa State. The SI board also does not include first-week sites.
- Longtime bracketologist Dave Ommen, founder of the Bracketville website, has Kentucky as the No. 23 overall seed on his latest list (one spot ahead of Louisville). Ommen’s bracket update Friday projected UK to be the 6 seed in the Houston regional, playing the winner of a First Four game between Santa Clara and SMU in the first round in St. Louis. The most likely round of 32 opponent? A rematch with 3-seeded Purdue, which the Cats beat in their exhibition opener in Rupp Arena back in October.
- USA Today’s Friday update projected Kentucky as the 6 seed in the Chicago regional, playing the winner of a First Four matchup between New Mexico and SMU in game one. That bracket, which has the Cats starting their NCAA Tournament journey in Portland, Oregon, also pits UK against 3-seeded Purdue in a potential round of 32 pairing.
- The Torvik tournament seeding projections have Kentucky as a 6 seed and the No. 23 overall team in the March Madness field, right behind St. John’s and Louisville on the same seed line. The Torvik board does not include an actual bracket or NCAA Tournament pairings, just a projection of where the teams will ultimately fall on the overall seed list.
- And longtime bracketologist Jerry Palm is now projecting Kentucky as the 7 seed in the Washington, D.C. regional, opening up against 10-seeded Iowa in St. Louis. The most likely round of 32 opponent in that bracket would be 2-seeded Illinois, which the Cats defeated in the second round last year.
The CBS Selection Sunday show will be at 6 p.m. ET on March 15.
This story was originally published March 7, 2026 at 5:00 AM.
