UK will need to pull some March Madness upsets. These teams have done it before
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- UK men’s basketball is a 7 seed for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
- Kentucky last reached the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament in 2015.
- Since 2015, seven teams seeded seventh or worse have gone on to reach the Final Four.
Kentucky basketball is going to need to pull some upsets if this March Madness is to be a memorable one for Mark Pope’s group.
The Cats were given a 7 seed for the 2026 NCAA Tournament and are set to open play against 10-seeded Santa Clara on Friday in St. Louis. With a win, UK would likely be matched up against 2-seeded Iowa State in a potential second-round matchup. A 3 seed, Virginia, could then await the Cats in the Sweet 16.
Things go one game at a time in the NCAA Tournament. But Kentucky will have to overcome some elite opposition if the program is to make its first Final Four appearance since 2015.
Pope can at least take solace in the recent history of unfancied NCAA Tournament teams going on a run in March.
In the nine NCAA Tournaments played since UK last made the Final Four in 2015 —the 2020 tournament was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic — seven teams with a 7 seed or worse have defied the odds to reach the Final Four.
This has happened in four of the past five tournaments, although not in 2025, when all four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four.
Some of those teams match Kentucky’s potential profile: A power conference program that put together an inconsistent season before catching fire at the right time.
UK basketball can use these teams as a blueprint for potential NCAA Tournament success this year, as Pope pursues putting another banner in the Rupp Arena rafters.
Which teams have recently made the Final Four as a 7 seed or worse?
Seven of the past nine NCAA Tournaments have seen a 7 seed or worse reach the Final Four. The exceptions were the 2019 and 2025 editions of March Madness.
In five instances, power-conference teams reached the national semifinals: 10 seed Syracuse in 2016, 7 seed South Carolina in 2017, 11 seed UCLA in 2021, 8 seed North Carolina in 2022 and 11 seed NC State in 2024.
The other two instances saw smaller-conference teams go on a storybook run: 11 seed Loyola-Chicago out of the Missouri Valley Conference in 2018 and 9 seed Florida Atlantic out of Conference USA in 2023.
The power-conference party crashers are most relevant to Kentucky.
In 2016, Syracuse entered the tournament with a 19-13 record after losing in the second round of the ACC Tournament. That didn’t stop the Orange from becoming the first 10 seed to reach the national semifinals, although Syracuse got some favorable breaks along the way.
After upsetting 7 seed Dayton in the first round, Syracuse caught a break when 15 seed Middle Tennessee State upset No. 2 seed Michigan State. Syracuse throttled MTSU by 25 points in the second round.
Jim Boeheim’s Orange drew another double-digit seed in the next round — Syracuse defeated 11 seed Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 — before pulling a stunner over No. 1 seed Virginia in the Elite Eight, overcoming a 14-point halftime deficit to win.
Syracuse’s run ended in the Final Four with a loss to 1 seed North Carolina. Despite winning four games as a No. 10 seed, Syracuse only had to record two seed-line upsets.
One year later, South Carolina reached its first-ever Final Four as a No. 7 seed. The Gamecocks went 22-10 before the tournament and lost in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. But their run through the national postseason was full of seed-line upsets.
After dispatching No. 10 seed Marquette by 20 points in the first round, South Carolina scored three consecutive upset wins over 2 seed Duke in the second round, 3 seed Baylor in the Sweet 16 and 4 seed Florida in the Elite Eight. The Gamecocks overcame a seven-point halftime deficit to defeat the Gators and punch their Final Four ticket.
A distinct scheduling quirk helped Frank Martin’s team with those early-round games. The Gamecocks played Marquette and Duke in Greenville, South Carolina, in front of a home-state crowd. In the Final Four, South Carolina fell short against No. 1 seed Gonzaga.
Pope is plenty familiar with the plight of 11 seed UCLA in the 2021 tournament. After losing in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 Tournament, the Bruins were 17-9 entering the Big Dance.
UCLA started by defeating fellow 11 seed Michigan State in a First Four game. Then, UCLA upset Pope’s 6 seed BYU team in the first round.
Like Syracuse, UCLA benefitted from facing a worse seed in the second round. UCLA defeated 14 seed Abilene Christian in the round of 32, before then rattling off wins over 2 seed Alabama and 1 seed Michigan to reach the Final Four.
Two of UCLA’s wins — over Michigan State in the First Four and Alabama in the Sweet 16 — came in overtime. The Bruins played another OT game in the Final Four, losing to 1 seed Gonzaga on Jalen Suggs’ mid-court buzzer-beater. Ex-Cat Johnny Juzang sparked the Cinderalla run, averaging 22.8 points across the Bruins’ six tournament games.
The 2021 NCAA Tournament was played entirely in Indiana and with limited crowds due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Of the five power-conference teams seeded seventh or worse to reach the Final Four in the past decade, only one has won its national semifinal. That was No. 8 seed North Carolina in 2022.
Hubert Davis’ first Tar Heels team went 24-9 before March Madness, reaching the semifinals of the ACC Tournament. Once in the Big Dance, UNC routed 9 seed Marquette by 32 points in its first-round game. From there, North Carolina scored sizable upsets over 1 seed and defending champion Baylor in the second round and 4 seed UCLA in the Sweet 16.
In the Elite Eight, the Tar Heels caught a big break. Instead of a potential meeting with 2 seed Kentucky to decide a spot in the Final Four, North Carolina faced 15 seed Saint Peter’s. The Peacocks famously upset UK in overtime in the first round of that year’s March Madness. The Tar Heels beat Saint Peter’s by 20 points in the Elite Eight.
North Carolina got past archrival Duke, a 2 seed, in the Final Four to book a spot in the national title game. That was Mike Krzyzewski’s final game as the Duke coach. In the national championship contest against Kansas, North Carolina led by 16 points in the first half, but eventually succumbed to the 1 seed Jayhawks.
Most recently, 11 seed NC State made a surprise run to the Final Four in the 2024 edition of March Madness. Unlike the other recent examples, NC State received an automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament after winning five games in five days to claim the ACC Tournament title.
Slotted as an 11 seed with a 22-14 record, the Wolfpack scored a trio of seed-line upsets on the way to the Final Four. NC State beat 6 seed Texas Tech in the first round, 2 seed Marquette in the Sweet 16 and 4 seed Duke in the Elite Eight.
In the second round, NC State beat 14 seed Oakland in overtime to advance. That’s the same Oakland squad that upset 3 seed Kentucky in the first round, a game that proved to be John Calipari’s last as the UK coach. In the Final Four, NC State lost by 13 points to 1 seed Purdue.
UK basketball will likely need to pull off upsets in NCAA Tournament
Combined, those five teams — Syracuse (2016), South Carolina (2017), UCLA (2021), North Carolina (2022) and NC State (2024) — pulled off 14 seed-line upsets in their NCAA Tournament trips. Each team pulled off at least two seed-line upsets as part of their respective runs.
Why is this important?
Because Mark Pope hasn’t shown much ability to pull off upsets as a college coach in win-or-go-home situations.
In his 11-season coaching career, Pope has only recorded two wins in a tournament setting as the worse seed compared to the opponent. The first of these victories came in the 2023 West Coast Conference Tournament quarterfinals with BYU. The second came Thursday, when 9 seed UK topped 8 seed Missouri in the SEC Tournament second round.
Overall, Pope is 11-6 in tournament games as the better seed compared to the opponent. As the worse seed, Pope owns a 2-8 record.
